So what now?
As patients awaiting cutting edge treatments we have 2 choices:
1) We turn our obsession into our fascination! We enrol in a post-graduate study and try and solve this mystery! This is going to be our ultimate triumph over MPB!
(To my surprise, there's a great pool of scientists on these forums continuously updating us on hairloss science - People along the lines of Boldy, Science, Gangster_Boy, etc, etc)
2) Accept what science can do for us today and live our life to the fullest until something better comes along!
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I tried to figure out at least scientifically what it might be capable of doing and I'm sure you've all read them over and over again.
But as we all know, scientific theories don't always turn into reality and clinical trials are there for that specific reason!
So,
- Will we be able keep our remaining hair with Ji Gami or NOT?
- Will Tsuji Lab finally start "First in Man trials"?
- Does Histogen really give back 30% of your lost hairs?
- Replicel may have had minimal regrowth! BUT, did the hairs become DHT-resistant? i.e. Did the hairloss cease?
It is now February 2013 and unfortunately we still don't have answers to any of these questions!Leave a comment:
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What we know so far is that MPB is not due to a single hormone, protein, prostaglandin or malfunctioning cell!
It is a combination of all these in a 3-dimensional layer within the dermal/epidermal layer! (Iron_Man is correct when he says that)
The ultimate cure would involve complete replenishment of this area via follicular transplant. Something along the lines of what Tsuji lab achieved in Dec 2011...
Unfortunately, this method will NOT be in our grasp till 2020 and beyond which brings us back to our current fascination: Aderans.
Aderans is secretive at its best. No body is 100% sure what is in Ji Gami. Furthermore, no one can say with 100% certainty its ultimate potential.
They don't hype up their treatment and lay low. In the latest ISHRS gathering, Dr. Washenik presented a topic regarding Permanent Sexual side effects associated with Propecia rather than discussing Aderans!
It's frustrating at best and makes you feel so powerless.Leave a comment:
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I think since Aderans is being Aderans, we have to try and speculate the possible outcomes of this long journey ourselves. Their updates have been minimal at best and their presentations mostly involve pre-clinical data (a ball of hair) with very little hard information regarding their actual observations in over 11 Phase 2 trials and 400 trial subjects!
We have recently seen for the very FIRST time photos of 2 trial subjects with regrowth at the edge of their balding areas without any indication regarding its staying power!
This brings us to the most important question of all. Does Aderans have a product that can at least compare to Propecia?
I'm interested to read everyone's opinion! As you know power of prediction is generally by numbers! SO let's all discuss this important matter!Leave a comment:
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The 18 month thingy (Washenik's BLACK arrows in the timeline table) per trail/phase, seems to be correct:You’re a little bit overoptimistic.
In this presentation (June 2010), Dr. Washenik is talking about “Ji Gami CN” – the final product.
CN is THE product, which works best of all (9 all in all) the other protocols (N, C, etc). In his old timeline table (2010), Dr. WASHENIK (not me or someone else, of course!) calculated the duration for every phase 2 or phase 3 trail with around 15-18 month – again, according to Washenik’s BLACK ARROWS in his old timeline table.
But the phase 2 clinical trail for Ji Gami CN …
... started, in fact, in June, 2012 - and NOT in spring, 2011 (according to Washenik’s old timeline) – right?
According to this …
… THIS would be, in fact (best-case-scenario), the new timeline table.
And there is a question:
How long does it take 1) to get around 1000 trail subjects or so (?) for phase 3 trails – including 2) collecting and evaluating of all the outcome-data after around 18 month or so? And finally 3) how long does it take to get FDA approval thereafter?
Here is the list of ALL trails (completed and still running):
Just for example - this one:
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Estimated Enrollment: 43
Study Start Date: May 2010
Primary Completion Date: January 2012 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)
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So that's 18 month (Start to Completion Date).
I have not checked all the other trails in the list (1st link), but it seems that they always calculate 18 month per trail/phase. And yes, Washenik calculated also around 18 month (black arrow) for a phase 3 trail in his timetable. To get approval for phase 3 trails at all (most other studies in general fail in phase 2 trails) needs positive data concerning safety AND effectiveness. If we don't hear something this year (2013) about a phase 3 START - that would be not so good ...Leave a comment:
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The updates are instant BUT the company has to inform them first!
In their last update (Jan 2012), they announced that Phase 2 trials should conclude by the end of 2012. But then they added 2 more trials which extended Phase 2 to April 2013! This happened at around the same time as when they were employing a geneticist so some guys put 2 & 2 together!
I'm 80% sure April will be the end of Phase 2! My 20% uncertainty is based on the fact that Washenik gave no indication that Phase 2 will be close to completion at the November Stem Cell Conference! That worried me a bit...Leave a comment:
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The other question mark I have is the clinicaltrials website and the previous 11 phase 2 trials. I've read it suggested before that Aderans added a final 2 trials to test genetic markers so I wonder the same as I believe Desmond suggested. I wonder when does the clinical trials website update their pages when a new Phase 2 trial is added?
Or is it untrue they added 2 more trials a year and a half ago?Leave a comment:
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I confirmed myself what people on the internet found. I'm almost certain there is another trial coming. One person suggested the next trial would test for a different baldness pattern so this makes me wonder if they aren't doing a final Phase 2 to cover people outside the NW3V to NW5 range they've been testing so far.Leave a comment:
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You probably shouldnt worry about them extending their Phase II trials. Its not likely to happen and they havent mentioned going down this route either, its always been Phase II -> Phase III
This Phase IIb stuff is just speculation and a rumour started by someone on this forum. Of course, its entirely possible that Aderans extends their Phase II trials, but unlikely at this point.Leave a comment:
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So here is the question I wanna know. Lets say this is not Phase 3.
Why would Aderans switch to a six month trial if it's just gonna be another Phase 2 trial?
Why change now?Leave a comment:
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I'm in the same position as you are dude. My hair line has crept back some, but my widows peaks are so far back to make it a NW3 although its definitely at least an NW2. I've got diffuse thinning going on as well.
I'm just as hopeful as you are but I'm planning on fighting hairloss for the next 2 years with RU, Minox, Saw Palmetto, Nizoral and getting HST from Dr. Gho for my hairline/temples and to thicken up the rest with remaining grafts.
Lets keep our fingers crossed
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Thank you all for the responses. Now that I have an idea of a release date..
Should i be concerned about my current state of MBP ( NW 2.5 )? Considering it will slowly get worse in the next 3-5 years while I stall it with Fin? Do you guys think Aderans will be a solution for us regardless of what state hair loss we are?Leave a comment:
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