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I confirmed myself what people on the internet found. I'm almost certain there is another trial coming. One person suggested the next trial would test for a different baldness pattern so this makes me wonder if they aren't doing a final Phase 2 to cover people outside the NW3V to NW5 range they've been testing so far.
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The other question mark I have is the clinicaltrials website and the previous 11 phase 2 trials. I've read it suggested before that Aderans added a final 2 trials to test genetic markers so I wonder the same as I believe Desmond suggested. I wonder when does the clinical trials website update their pages when a new Phase 2 trial is added?
Or is it untrue they added 2 more trials a year and a half ago?Comment
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I wish they would ****ing update us moreComment
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The updates are instant BUT the company has to inform them first!
In their last update (Jan 2012), they announced that Phase 2 trials should conclude by the end of 2012. But then they added 2 more trials which extended Phase 2 to April 2013! This happened at around the same time as when they were employing a geneticist so some guys put 2 & 2 together!
I'm 80% sure April will be the end of Phase 2! My 20% uncertainty is based on the fact that Washenik gave no indication that Phase 2 will be close to completion at the November Stem Cell Conference! That worried me a bit...Comment
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The 18 month thingy (Washenik's BLACK arrows in the timeline table) per trail/phase, seems to be correct:You’re a little bit overoptimistic.
In this presentation (June 2010), Dr. Washenik is talking about “Ji Gami CN” – the final product.
CN is THE product, which works best of all (9 all in all) the other protocols (N, C, etc). In his old timeline table (2010), Dr. WASHENIK (not me or someone else, of course!) calculated the duration for every phase 2 or phase 3 trail with around 15-18 month – again, according to Washenik’s BLACK ARROWS in his old timeline table.
But the phase 2 clinical trail for Ji Gami CN …
... started, in fact, in June, 2012 - and NOT in spring, 2011 (according to Washenik’s old timeline) – right?
According to this …
… THIS would be, in fact (best-case-scenario), the new timeline table.
And there is a question:
How long does it take 1) to get around 1000 trail subjects or so (?) for phase 3 trails – including 2) collecting and evaluating of all the outcome-data after around 18 month or so? And finally 3) how long does it take to get FDA approval thereafter?
Here is the list of ALL trails (completed and still running):
Just for example - this one:
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Estimated Enrollment: 43
Study Start Date: May 2010
Primary Completion Date: January 2012 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)
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So that's 18 month (Start to Completion Date).
I have not checked all the other trails in the list (1st link), but it seems that they always calculate 18 month per trail/phase. And yes, Washenik calculated also around 18 month (black arrow) for a phase 3 trail in his timetable. To get approval for phase 3 trails at all (most other studies in general fail in phase 2 trails) needs positive data concerning safety AND effectiveness. If we don't hear something this year (2013) about a phase 3 START - that would be not so good ...Comment
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I think since Aderans is being Aderans, we have to try and speculate the possible outcomes of this long journey ourselves. Their updates have been minimal at best and their presentations mostly involve pre-clinical data (a ball of hair) with very little hard information regarding their actual observations in over 11 Phase 2 trials and 400 trial subjects!
We have recently seen for the very FIRST time photos of 2 trial subjects with regrowth at the edge of their balding areas without any indication regarding its staying power!
This brings us to the most important question of all. Does Aderans have a product that can at least compare to Propecia?
I'm interested to read everyone's opinion! As you know power of prediction is generally by numbers! SO let's all discuss this important matter!Comment
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What we know so far is that MPB is not due to a single hormone, protein, prostaglandin or malfunctioning cell!
It is a combination of all these in a 3-dimensional layer within the dermal/epidermal layer! (Iron_Man is correct when he says that)
The ultimate cure would involve complete replenishment of this area via follicular transplant. Something along the lines of what Tsuji lab achieved in Dec 2011...
Unfortunately, this method will NOT be in our grasp till 2020 and beyond which brings us back to our current fascination: Aderans.
Aderans is secretive at its best. No body is 100% sure what is in Ji Gami. Furthermore, no one can say with 100% certainty its ultimate potential.
They don't hype up their treatment and lay low. In the latest ISHRS gathering, Dr. Washenik presented a topic regarding Permanent Sexual side effects associated with Propecia rather than discussing Aderans!
It's frustrating at best and makes you feel so powerless.Comment
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I tried to figure out at least scientifically what it might be capable of doing and I'm sure you've all read them over and over again.
But as we all know, scientific theories don't always turn into reality and clinical trials are there for that specific reason!
So,
- Will we be able keep our remaining hair with Ji Gami or NOT?
- Will Tsuji Lab finally start "First in Man trials"?
- Does Histogen really give back 30% of your lost hairs?
- Replicel may have had minimal regrowth! BUT, did the hairs become DHT-resistant? i.e. Did the hairloss cease?
It is now February 2013 and unfortunately we still don't have answers to any of these questions!Comment
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So what now?
As patients awaiting cutting edge treatments we have 2 choices:
1) We turn our obsession into our fascination! We enrol in a post-graduate study and try and solve this mystery! This is going to be our ultimate triumph over MPB!
(To my surprise, there's a great pool of scientists on these forums continuously updating us on hairloss science - People along the lines of Boldy, Science, Gangster_Boy, etc, etc)
2) Accept what science can do for us today and live our life to the fullest until something better comes along!Comment
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As we age, our bodies will NOT be the way they used to be and hanging on to the past is not only foolish but detrimental to our health!
Acceptance is the first step to abandon our despair and the path to ultimate happiness!
I truly believe that humans are social animals and forums like these should be where ppl find comfort and acceptance.
This is where I disagree with Iron_Man's approach! (I really respect your scientific opinions btw brother). But shattering ppl's dreams by shear negativity is simply inhumane and cowardly!
We should all be here trying to get our fellow brothers through this horrible mess rather than simply telling them you've lost! it's over!
Love you all...
-DesmondComment
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I am attempting to go with route 2 in Desmond's scheme. Which brings me to a couple questions:
Des, do you think .25mg of Fin per week will do anything as far as maintenance, or is the half life too short? It's the only dose I can take without gyno flaring up (chest still hurts but pain subsides to minimal levels after a week). I also use Niz 2% 1/wk.
What do you think about Keratene pills? Seems more legitimate than most alternatives to Fin out there. Would I be better served to give it a shot than waste time taking low Fin doses, or would you stick with the Fin until more results come from Keratene?Comment
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hmm, kinda sucks, I just turned 19 a week ago and am NW2 with a little bit of crown thinning.
Kinda sick of hair loss, but while I have a weak chin i've got perfect head shape and I already wear a 3 buzz anyway. Going to gradually fill in a light beard and then just buzz it lower and lower....then bic it!
Desmond you reckon by 2020 we'll have something? why doesn't everyone just continually get HST? Either way I think i'll just accept it, lift heavy ,take a multi and grow a beard lol .
If something comes out in 10 or so years and I have dough, then ill still be pretty young ( 30 ish ) so maybe i'll only have to endure 5-6 years of baldyComment
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With the funding aderans has and the amount of research they have done, they would not release a product that wasn't at least comparable to propecia...they would get laughed at. I would say if they release a product anytime soon it will be slightly better than propecia.Comment
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Desmond, Do you or does anyone else have a few before and after photos they can share of what Propecia does to the crown? It doesn't have to be your hair. I just want to know what kind of results are we up against because the only people I know on Propecia have receding hairlines...
I've never seen what Propecia does to a bald spot, and I read the other day actually that Propecia works better on the crown than the hairline. Is that true?
There are actually three before and after photos in the Aderans video, and they are all taken at six months or less so we have never seen a photo at 54 weeks.Comment
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