HASCI - -How well does it work? Now we'll be able to find out!

[Arashi]

You may be right. But putting the necessary images together is no problem. I got pretty sharp photographs right after the procedure, which at least sharply delineate the zones, where the grafts landed:

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/81057175/2015-05-30%2012.16.17.jpg

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/81057175/2015-05-30%2012.20.02.jpg

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/81057175/2015-06-01%2016.41.21.jpg

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/81057175/2015-06-01%2016.59.08.jpg

And Here are the corrections, I was talking about:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/...rrections1.jpg

I think normally they put grafts between the temples too, but in your case it all seems to have been placed inside the temples, which is like a perfect scenario for analysis. Do you have good pre-op photo's of recipient too ?

[AlmostUndone]

I think normally they put grafts between the temples too, but in your case it all seems to have been placed inside the temples, which is like a perfect scenario for analysis. Do you have good pre-op photo's of recipient too ?

They didn't put any in the front, either.

I succeeded extremely well capturing getting those very small hairs in the temples. I haven't had time to cherry pick them. But here's few wider shots, which I'm planning to connect the more zoomed in photos. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/.../Recipient.jpg

[Arashi]

They didn't put any in the front, either.

I succeeded extremely well capturing getting those very small hairs in the temples. I haven't had time to cherry pick them. But here's few wider shots, which I'm planning to connect the more zoomed in photos. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/.../Recipient.jpg

So you've shot a great amount of high quality pics, both pre-op and post surgery and put some lines on your scalp to easily link the photo's really really nice !

I don't think HASCI expected to get someone like you in their clinic, who would be able to kill their little fairytale with such high quality photo's In fact I myself thought it would be impossible/unfeasible to do such an analysis. But your case is like a dream case for analysis, because of the relatively small amount of grafts, all recipient grafts placed in a virgin scalp area, the markings you've made to connect the photo's and the very high quality pre-op and post-op photo's you've shot ! So nice indeed !

Anyway I'll have a couple of hours today again, will continue my work on the donor analysis.

[Arashi]

Done for the day, can't see any more hairs So far I've counted 1256 extraction sites, I've counted 945 lost hairs and 686 succesful extractions. So I'm at about 85% of your donor now. I should easily be able to finish the remaining 15% next week.

Current prediction of the final result: 800/686 * 945 = 1102 lost hairs in donor. If your recipient density is 1.3, like we've seen in previous HASCI cases, then you'd have received 1040 hairs in your recipient. Which would mean no regeneration but a net loss of 68 hairs.

But again, we'll need to analyse your recipient to find out about the density !

[Arashi]

So, I've finished the donor analysis ! My findings:

* I've analysed 1598 extraction points
* I've counted 1172 lost hairs
* I've counted 854 extraction points that had less hair in the after photo.

As HASCI transplanted 800 grafts, one would expect 800 extraction points with less hair, I'm pretty happy to have ended less than 7% away from that ! I myself explain this (small) difference because of:
A) Some hair just going into resting mode instead of really being lost
B) errors in counting.
C) Some failed extractions might have caused severe damage to grafts and thus hairloss


If we go with the situation that's most favourable for HASCI (so no category C, but just A and B), then we'd need to lower the 1172 with 7%, which would translate to 1090 really lost hairs in donor. This would translate to 1.36 hair/graft in recipient.

As we've seen even lower hair/graft count in previous cases, at this point this result would indicate no regrowth at all. BUT we'll now need to analyse recipient to make sure !

@Almostundone: I'll wait till you're done with you initial work on recipient. In the meanwhile I'll go over my analysis again, do some recounting, analyse other views etc and will update the result.

So here's my analysis of the right side of your donor:

The before situation:

http://www.hasci-exposed.com/images/right_side_final_98_nieuw.jpg

The after situation:

http://www.hasci-exposed.com/images/right_side_After_Area A.bmp

http://www.hasci-exposed.com/images/right_side_After_Area B.bmp

http://www.hasci-exposed.com/images/right_side_After_Area C.bmp

http://www.hasci-exposed.com/images/right_side_After_Area D.bmp

http://www.hasci-exposed.com/images/right_side_After_Area E.bmp

http://www.hasci-exposed.com/images/right_side_After_Area F.bmp

http://www.hasci-exposed.com/images/right_side_After_Area G.bmp

http://www.hasci-exposed.com/images/right_side_After_Area HJ.bmp

http://www.hasci-exposed.com/images/right_side_After_Area I.bmp

http://www.hasci-exposed.com/images/right_side_After_Area K.jpg

http://www.hasci-exposed.com/images/right_side_After_Area L.bmp

And the excel sheet with my calcs:

http://www.hasci-exposed.com/RightSide.xls

As I'll be doing my re-analysis the next few days, the files at those links locations might be updated with corrections. BTW when I'm talking about re-analysis I mean the analysis of how many hairs were lost per graft. The lines/circles are perfect, I'm pretty sure of that. But it's the hairloss itself that might contain errors: it's sometimes hard to see how many hairs there are in a graft. But analysing alternative viewpoints might cut down on some errors there.

[Swooping]

Good job Arashi . Would be fun if you would all come together and sue them.

[c5000]

After having had 3 previous HSTs, I would be interested in joining the lawsuit...

[Arashi]

After having had 3 previous HSTs, I would be interested in joining the lawsuit...

Great ! Well I'm first going to double check the donor result and then we'll still need to analyse recipient. But it doesnt look good for HASCI at this point for sure. But yeah let's discuss a possible lawsuit when all the analysis is done and double checked, I'm too seriously thinking about at least inquiering at a law firm about the costs and how they consider the case.

[Arashi]

I've recounted the right side, the result is almost the same (uploaded the new file). I'll recount the left side this week too and while waiting for the donor pics I'll also compare with alternative viewpoints !

[Arashi]

Today I've recounted the left side, area 1 to Area 7B. Only made a few changes and the final result is again almost the same. Uploaded the edited files. Will try to finish recounting tomorrow.

After that I'll probably take a look at the alternative views too (still haven't done that)

[AlmostUndone]

I thought there were gonna be loads of mistakes in my work, but when I re-checked, I think I only found 1 badly placed circle in the afterimages. Pretty good, huh? That said, some circles had to be added. I'll take a closer look at Arashi's work sooner or later.

[Arashi]

I thought there were gonna be loads of mistakes in my work, but when I re-checked, I think I only found 1 badly placed circle in the afterimages. Pretty good, huh? That said, some circles had to be added. I'll take a closer look at Arashi's work sooner or later.

Your works was really near perfect !! I think I only removed a circle around a graft 2 times. You did forget a couple of circles here and there, but it weren't many neither.

Anyway I've finished recounting everything ! I've uploaded the changed excel sheets. What I still haven't done is analysing alternative views. Nor have I checked the extraction points to be correct (I only did that for Area 1, you didnt make any errors there and you work very neatly in general so I figured the rest was ok too, but I might check a few area's for errors there).

Anyway, so my final result based on the above:

You have lost 1166 hairs in your donor and I've counted 848 extraction points with less hair than before of the total of 1599 extraction points that you had.

So 848 grafts that's just 6% more than you had done (800 grafts), I think it's pretty close ! Again, the reason here might be a combination of counting errors, hairs going into sleeping state and/or that HASCI damaged some grafts during failed extractions. Anyway if we go with the scenario that's best for HASCI and we're assuming that no grafts were damaged during failed extractions, then that would mean we'd need to lower the result with 6%, so that then would be 1096 hairs really lost in donor.

So, if your average recipient density would be higher than 1.37 hair/graft, then that would point at regrowth (well actually we'd need to see that 6% extra to be sure, so above 1.45 hair/graft would point at regrowth). Lower density than 1.37 hair/graft would equal net hair loss ! Keep in mind that in all 3 previous hasci recipient cases we've analysed, I didnt see a result above 1.3 hair/graft in donor.

Can't wait to look at your recipient though

[Arashi]

And oh yeah, 80% regrowth would now mean that we'll need to see 6.85 hair/graft on average in your recipient. Wow that would be something eh But since I didnt encounter any more than 5 hairs/graft in your donor (mostly 2-3 hair/graft), that only seems to be possible in HASCI fairytale land

[Arashi]

I thought there were gonna be loads of mistakes in my work, but when I re-checked, I think I only found 1 badly placed circle in the afterimages. Pretty good, huh? That said, some circles had to be added. I'll take a closer look at Arashi's work sooner or later.

It's of course totally up to you but I'd love for you to first do the recipient ! I double checked my own work now and I'm pretty sure it's good. An option would be though, if you want to take get a quick idea of the correctness of my analysis, to analyse just one area, take a random area and analyse that area and you'll see that it's quite good

Also for anyone in general interested in verifying my work: Like AlmostUndone said before, make sure you are NOT using windows photo viewer: it anti-aliases and makes it harder to count. I'm using 'irfanview' myself, that doesnt anti aliase. And make sure you zoom in enough, sometimes you really need to zoom in to see if there's 2 or 3 hairs. Look good for really thin hairs, sometimes a hair gets a lot thinner in the after photo. And it's a good method to look for the hair ends, sometimes you see like a small balloon there at the end of the hair and you can look for these in difficult situations.

There will always be situations where it's really hard to tell how many hairs there are though in a graft. In those cases I tried to vary the estimates: first graft I really doubt I take the high estimate, 2nd the low etc. That's probably the best way to negate the uncertainty as much as possible.

[Arashi]

BTW, something we haven't discussed: sometimes you'll see that in the after photo a graft has *more* hair than in the before photo. In those cases I counted the result as 0. This could happen either due to photo's not really telling the whole story or, more likely, to hair coming out of resting state. So, since I didnt count those hairs that come out of resting state but did count the hairs that go into resting state (as hair loss), I think it makes a lot of sense to use that 6% correction I demonstrated before (so lower the final result with 6 %).

Actually I would bet that if you count the extra hairs in grafts in the after photo, you'd end up with that 6% too.