Aderans

[Thinning@30]

Yeahyeahyeah, thanks for posting that timeline. It looks like it was published in June 2010, which makes me worry that the company may no longer be pushing for a 2014 release. Have they reaffirmed the 2014 date anytime during the last few months?

[yeahyeahyeah]

Yeahyeahyeah, thanks for posting that timeline. It looks like it was published in June 2010, which makes me worry that the company may no longer be pushing for a 2014 release. Have they reaffirmed the 2014 date anytime during the last few months?

Well phase 2 should be finished by the end of the year. With phase 3 starting in February.

If all goes well 2014 is a realistic date.

[Alf]

Well phase 2 should be finished by the end of the year. With phase 3 starting in February.

If all goes well 2014 is a realistic date.

I all goes well and we can use the time table from the previous page and just move phase 3 start from 2011 to 2013, 2016 would be the date?

[yeahyeahyeah]

I all goes well and we can use the time table from the previous page and just move phase 3 start from 2011 to 2013, 2016 would be the date?

Why on earth would phase 3 start on 2013?

Nevermind forgot it was 2012 lol

[JRQ]

I all goes well and we can use the time table from the previous page and just move phase 3 start from 2011 to 2013, 2016 would be the date?

If Phase 3 starts in February, as it should, then the 2014 date is very realistic. The only thing I could see happening would be a latter half 2014 release date instead of early 2014.

[Alf]

If Phase 3 starts in February, as it should, then the 2014 date is very realistic. The only thing I could see happening would be a latter half 2014 release date instead of early 2014.

I'm only balding and no expert, but what's wrong with my reasoning and how do you reason?

[JRQ]

As you can see, everything has been bumped forward approximately one full year due to the hair angle issue in Phase II. Phase III is now set to end around December 2014, with the subsequent commercialization following. So it could still come out in the very latter half of 2014, or at the very latest, January/February 2015

[yeahyeahyeah]

As you can see, everything has been bumped forward approximately one full year due to the hair angle issue in Phase II. Phase III is now set to end around December 2014, with the subsequent commercialization following. So it could still come out in the very latter half of 2014, or at the very latest, January/February 2015

How do you know this?

[JRQ]

You can scroll back through this thread and check out my earlier posts, but I'll do a quick breakdown of how I personally take the graph-

Phase II studies were meant to end around July 2012 (the middle line). Since I assume they had difficulties with hair angle issues, Phase II was pushed back.

Phase II now did not officially close until late January/early February of this year (2012). Phase II lasts exactly 52 weeks, meaning results will not be out until they hit this mark in February 2013.

Phase III will not start immediately after this, which is the confusing part. According to the graph (and from knowledge of watching their clinical trials site), they leave recruitment open for some period of time. This is where it is VERY easy to flaw any calculations (and I have because of this myself). I always leave this out of my projections.

Considering the trials last 52 weeks each time, and the graphs shows an overlap of 4-5 months, I'll say Phase III will start around July/August 2013. Calculate 52 weeks later, you have August 2014 as a tentative ending.

Commercial release will follow shortly thereafter, most likely in the very latter half of 2014.


I don't work for them, nor am I an expert (obviously). I have just watched them very closely for a few years now and have down how they operate pretty well. Unlike what many people think, they run a pretty tight ship. No other new technology (Histogen, Replicel, etc.) has the reach or fiscal support that ARI does. Phase II enrolled 350 people alone at sites all over the country. That's what makes me feel at ease with them I guess you could say.

Hope this helps!

[JRQ]

Some really good news for everyone following this thread- Aderans is already opening up screening (in select areas) for Phase 3 trials. Check out their clinical updates site posted below-

http://www.aderansresearch.com/ari_clinicupdates.html

I always try to check the website once a week, and was pleasantly surprised this time.

[534623]

Some really good news for everyone following this thread- Aderans is already opening up screening (in select areas) for Phase 3 trials.

definitely - no.

[yeahyeahyeah]

Some really good news for everyone following this thread- Aderans is already opening up screening (in select areas) for Phase 3 trials. Check out their clinical updates site posted below-

http://www.aderansresearch.com/ari_clinicupdates.html

I always try to check the website once a week, and was pleasantly surprised this time.

Where does it say they are recruiting for phase 3

[JRQ]

Maybe I'm making assumptions, however they're based off of my semi-knowledgeable opinion of the company. Phase 2 recruitment is complete, results will be out in February, and they need new participants for Phase 3. Seems pretty common sense to me, but I shall call on Monday and find out.

[yeahyeahyeah]

Maybe I'm making assumptions, however they're based off of my semi-knowledgeable opinion of the company. Phase 2 recruitment is complete, results will be out in February, and they need new participants for Phase 3. Seems pretty common sense to me, but I shall call on Monday and find out.

I think you should - you got my hopes high

[JRQ]

I think you should - you got my hopes high

Lol, it got mine up too. I'll stay mum until I call Monday and get some info on it.