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Lets say it works. They need more participants to phase 3 than to phase 2. Not everyone(those who got no results) who partiipated in phase 2 will participate in phase 3, we are not that many who follow adeans and not everyone would quit using finasterid to participate in something you know very little about.Comment
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They'll be fine with participants, that is not going to cause a setback. I'd be more worried about how easily they get the product on 'store shelves' as in, FDA approval process. That's the one that scares me the most.
I also hope that for whatever reason they don't extend Phase III trials at least not by much if only to get their solution perfected, I'm not keen on waiting, I'm sure you or any of the other board members here are either.Comment
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No I'm not keen on waiting. I wish I was a management consultant. Then I would tell them to get the product to the market as soon as possible is the key and then you can allways improve the product later and make the customers come back for another treatment. No reason for only charging once.
What I am afraid of is someonte telling Aderans that they will get the same customers even if they delay another year for noone will come up with something better in the mean time.Comment
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Thats a risk though, Histogen has been making good progress and any further delays to Aderans will push closer to a release date thats nearer Histogen's. Aderans needs to come out with a consumer product as fast as possible if they intend to make the kind of money that would please their investors. The sooner they do this, the better as it will give them that much more time to make profits before Histogen or any other solutions comes out to market. Basically they'd have 100% of the market if they came out with a product today and there would be nothing that affect their sales other than traditional FUT/FUE/HST solutions which would basically be stone age treatments compared to Aderans.
I'm optimistic in the sense that theyre working on releasing it as soon as possible, but I as well as everyone else has to realize there is a long process until that happens.
I don't really like speculating either since none of us really knows what fine details of efficacy, trial success, FDA hurdles, marketing hurdles, commercialization process, etc. This does take a lot of time. To put it into perspective, I worked at a marketing agency a couple years ago and we were doing a massive fund raiser for cancer research for a local hospital. We were going to run a weekend long hockey tournament that would involve sponsors, commercials, ads, banners, website, team and player signups, an info hotline, promotional videos, logos, etc. Before the event we spent over a years time from conceptualization to a final launch day of the event and that was with three or more teams working on all of this; the hospital, our agency, third party agencies and many others involved with sponsorship. Its a very tedious process and I can tell you that communication between all people takes a long time, many people are slow to respond or slow to complete their tasks. Aderans is going to have similar challenges and I hope theyre already working on them to get their treatment out the door and ready for the public, from making websites, training doctors, refitting their purchased clinics, marketing, approvals from FDA, etc. Not exactly a 5 minute job.Comment
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Okay, now let me speculate a little bit ...
This is a PR article by Aderans, published around 1 year ago:
Snippet:
What does that mean?"We’re getting closer and closer to solving the puzzle of cellular hair regeneration"
They already solved the puzzle - or couldn't solve the puzzle so far?
Furthermore ...
What does that mean?“These conferences are important for us because they bring together hair restoration surgeons, clinicians and scientific researchers to exchange insights and expand our collective knowledge of the follicular regeneration and restoration processes.”
Does that mean that about 55 people in a 27,000-square-foot building and after 10 years of hair research still need knowledge from others to solve the puzzle (= still unsolved)?
Ah, I know - it's just a PR article and nobody should read too much into it ...Comment
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Websites are a pain in the ass actually, typically it takes 2-3 months to get anything professional done. Unless you hire a freelancer that knows basic PHP and makes a simple static website or a a basic Wordpress site. Web design process is tedious too; initial meetings, wireframe development, then aesthetic design concepts, revisions, photography (unless stock photography is chosen), then finally coding and depending what the site needs will determine how much work and how long it takes to do it, especially if its an e-commerce website, though I don't see much being done on that front, Aderans solution obviously isnt an item that can be purchased.
Anyway, I'm just pointing out that launching a product like this nationally is a herculean task.Comment
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They claim there was significant hair growth in half of the study participants, not sure that they consider significant.Aderans Research recently completed the first of seven protocols of a hair regeneration Phase 2 clinical study.
More than half of study participants showed significant hair growth one year after the cell product treatment
was administered. Ongoing trial protocols are evaluating additional variants from ARI’s Ji Gami™ family of
follicular cell products.Comment
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It says on PRNet the costs for their Ji Gami™ family will be similar to transplant costs.Comment
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OK guys,
This is a serious question that I've been asking myself lately so plz share your thoughts:
"Do you think, if we don't hear from Aderans by April 2013 and they decide to do another Phase 2 trial that we could safely say our generation of hairloss sufferers missed out on this cutting edge technology?"
I certainly do think so, especially since I'm not planning on taking fin on a long-term basis (i.e. till 2020)
What are your thoughts?Comment
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