2015 outlook.

[Hairismylife]

"There is no mention of phase 3 on this page."
"and in articles it was said that if anything positive was shown (significant superiority to minoxidil) they would immediately gear up for a phase 3 as soon as 2b was done"

This literally worries me! The logic is : good results> phase 3, think conversely, which means……

[It's2014ComeOnAlready]

"There is no mention of phase 3 on this page."
"and in articles it was said that if anything positive was shown (significant superiority to minoxidil) they would immediately gear up for a phase 3 as soon as 2b was done"

This literally worries me! The logic is : good results> phase 3, think conversely, which means……

haha, i don't disagree. In this particular case, I'm comfortable with it. There would be no point in Allergan not letting us know if it didn't work out. However, they said they would let us know in 2016. Hmmmm....Keep in mind this drug is widely available, and what would stop someone from concocting their own formula for themselves or sell it through illegal channels? I think the silence is a matter of investment and money, nothing more. Also, take comfort in knowing this drug works on scalp hair in concentrations that are literally hundreds of times less potent than what they are testing. If the optimal dose is 10% concentration, then that is ~333X the concentration than what is extremely effective for eyelashes, and somewhat effective for scalp hair. It works.

[sdsurfin]

It's2014ComeOnAlready you could be right about all you are saying but in the end it is also speculation. Kythera would not be in trouble if setipiprant failed, companies like this make sure their livelihood does not hinge on one thing. they are not taking huge financial risks with this drug (cheap trials, already proven safety), they are gonna be rolling in money from the double chin drug, and they can always pursue something else if this fails. I hope it works and i certainly think it has potential, and the experts seem to think so too. thats all we really know.

as far as Bim is concerned you might also be right, but we really don't know why the results weren't released. could be a number of reasons. Phase 3 trials still have to be registered even if they go right into them and they have not done that.

swooping is correct that nothing is a lock until it is proven by trials, but he also has a very pessimistic attitude and he had no more evidence that things will fail than vice versa. could go either way and currently the number of possibilities in the pipeline is promising. the chance that they all fail is possible but unlikely giving the advances in knowledge about AGA pathways.

I'm more concerned about potential Bim side effects than its usefulness. we already have seen that it can work at least as good as minox, or it wouldn't still be in trials. I'm more excited about SM and setipiprant and follcept, and replicel in the longer term. And Keki just ignore swooping man, we just feed his endless prattling, the guy is a pain in the ass debbie downer just trying to feed his own insecurities so he can say i told you so if something fails. Why be on these forums if all you're gonna do is spout pessimism? no point. There's no point to these forums either way, but im on here working to try to get you guys info from people like replicel and follicept (I signed an NDA with them so I can't really tell you guys more on that front, but there's not much more to say anyway except that their science is solid and must be proven in humans before we can get psyched). And also to try to get cheaper things like OC and Bim and CB. Hopefully TLR will get back to us soon.

[KO1]

If anybody gets in contact with KYTH please ask how they settled on seti from the zoo of crth2 blockers. That is truly odd as there are more potent options in dev. Perhaps it is not solely about in vitro potency but still.

[Swooping]

Swooping you dont sound too optimistic about these future/possible treatments (specifically follicept) that may hit the market in the near future. Can I ask you why you think follicept wont work with its IGF delivery? Hasnt there been evidence that shows IGF works or am I missing something here?

I am cautiously optimistic about it mainly because of the team they have down there but I am not very informed with this IGF and the trials that have been conducted in the past

Well not everything. Obviously CB-03-01 is a androgen receptor antagonist, it is more exciting than systemic 5ar2 blocking. If they manage to get good results and the compound has a very good safety profile with no side effects it will be great. They would still need to be convinced it will be a monetizing product for them to launch to market though. Who wouldn’t want a finasteride without any side effects? If it launches and proves to be great, people should be having no excuses to lose their hair anymore. Or at least 90+% of the people. It won’t grow your hair back though.

Besides that as FearTheLoss mentioned I hope that innovation in the HT industry will progress. I’m working on this matter currently and most likely I’ll be visiting the hair congress in November. I have had conversations already with people who will be focusing on this who are in the industry which is great. Ultimately a cooperation between some hair transplant doctors and cell biologists would be very good. With in vivo trial & error they will crack it, I’m certain of it. The proof of concept is there already. Jahoda even induced de-novo hair follicle morphogenesis simply by using his fresh dermal sheath cells on his wife his arm. The will needs to be there though. Take as an example Dr. Wesley, the guy is a practical genius. You need people like him. I wouldn’t be surprised if in the future a functional cure will arise first from this sector.

Besides that every drug or cell based treatment on the frontpage will be a fail. Bimatoprost isn’t going to outperform minoxidil by a great margin which will be needed for Allergan. They need something that beats the shit out of it. It would have to show like 200%+ efficiency improvement over the initial trial, extreme rare that such a thing happens. Scientists already predetermine the pharmacokinetics of such compounds in pre-clinical trials to calculate receptor affinity ratio’s. Besides that, by increasing the dosage it will most likely bring on more side effects. The occurrence of side effects of bimatoprost was equal to minoxidil at a LOWER dosage. Using 10x concentrations is insane and most likely will yield stronger side effects. Just look at what natural PGF2A does at a proper dosage, bodybuilders use it and it’s used in vetinary. The side effects are (extremely) harsh at a high dosage. Bimatoprost is nothing more than a analog of natural occurring PGF2A which isn’t patentable. Lutalyse, have a search for it. So yeah if people have a problem with minoxidil side effects good luck with a high dosage of bimatoprost. Allergan is already quiet. They would have no reason to be quiet. There is a stigma on companies to release failures. They like to keep such things quiet. Spencer said the same thing in his last show, that they would have no reason to keep quiet if the results were positive. It makes zero sense.

For Setipiprant I just have a feeling that Cotsarelis is trolling Kythera to get his paycheck in. I can’t possible believe, that he believes that the pathology is purely inflammatory based and is that simple. Especially with the most recent findings of other scientists. It doesn’t make any sense. Literally nobody followed up his work. In other words nobody shows interest for the PGD2 angle in current research. There is no genetical basis for the PGD2 Theory either; http://s23.postimg.org/pn1r4ooy3/pgd2genetic.jpg. I don’t think the guy even has a drive anymore, but just wants his paycheck lol. It’s going to fail in my book. PGD2 lays downstream in the inflammatory cascade and is most likely even mediated by higher upstream inflammatory pathways. There are other important things happening in AGA. The discussions I had with guys who either study biology or work in the hair related field, they all basically concur on it.

Last but not least Follicept. I don’t really want to get to deep into this. I could write 4 pages with evidence why this has almost 0 chance of working. No way that it will even touch minoxidil. You can read some arguments in the topic of Follicept. Although I want to reiterate that we are finally grasping the concept of AGA. I’m certain of it. The pathology is getting more clear every day. Who knows maybe even a compound will get discovered accidently just like minoxidil was found to be very good at growing hair by accident. Unexpected things can and do happen. It all proves to be extremely hard though.

[KO1]

I don't think seti is a scam per se. Costarelis has enough money, and has a guaranteed paycheck for the rest of his life, I bet he makes about 400k+ per year guaranteed, based on what guys of his stature make, combined with the fact that he is a dermatologist. Pgd2 is without question an important player in the AGA process, and it's especially important discovery as it explains the morphology of AGA, which other people haven't described at all. But yeah, the concern is that it is downstream of pathways we can already inhibit.

[KO1]

Thing with cots is that these discoveries aren't his true knowledge, and really represent what he was working on like 8 years ago.

[Swooping]

Desmond hair congress 2014 interview with Cotsarelis;

1) Follica's phase 2 trial completed recently with promising results. But they have insufficient funds to continue with further trials. So at this point everything has been put on hold.

3) I brought up the crowdfunding idea particularly with regards to Follica and he said the amount necessary is quite large. So I insisted on an actual amount and here's what he said: "US $2 million would bring out a product that would be more effective than Minoxidil and Propecia but would not give a bald person a full head of hair. US $20 million will provide the kind of funding necessary to give someone who is already bald a full head of hair but it will take more years to accomplish".

Claims with no foundation, claims with zero evidence. Just as he claimed 2 times in the past that a cure would be there in "5" years. I think no comment is needed further on this. People chuckled at this, this is just a clown action. That's how it often goes guys. Something to think about.

[It's2014ComeOnAlready]

Desmond hair congress 2014 interview with Cotsarelis;



Claims with no foundation, claims with zero evidence. Just as he claimed 2 times in the past that a cure would be there in "5" years. I think no comment is needed further on this. People chuckled at this, this is just a clown action. That's how it often goes guys. Something to think about.

You are referring to an ambush interview with a guy from a hair loss forum. He should give full evidence to back up his claims in this case, why? Also those 5 year claims came directly from the media outlets covering Cotsarelis' work, not from Cotsarelis himself. You are very confused on a lot of facts. Mostly just spout off anger, based on what little information you have. Also, a lot of those 5 year claims came in 2012, making the launch date in 2017, and if everything goes well for Kythera, that claim wouldn't be very far off.

[Swooping]

You are referring to an ambush interview with a guy from a hair loss forum. He should give full evidence to back up his claims in this case, why? Also those 5 year claims came directly from the media outlets covering Cotsarelis' work, not from Cotsarelis himself. You are very confused on a lot of facts. Mostly just spout off anger, based on what little information you have. Also, a lot of those 5 year claims came in 2012, making the launch date in 2017, and if everything goes well for Kythera, that claim wouldn't be very far off.

Oh wait, he was scared because a spontaneous positive guy came to him with some questions? He did speak those words didn't he? And you believing in those words is just... You really have no clue dude. But again you believe anything because you grasp onto your hope. I don't dude, we differ in that. I suggest you to start reading actual scientific studies yourself and look at evidence instead of loose words.

http://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2013/09/09/richard-smith-time-for-science-to-be-about-truth-rather-than-careers/

http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124

His report “Why most published research findings are false” is the most cited paper in PLOS Medicine and has contributed to him being profiled in the New York Times and becoming famous.

When a theory is shown to be incorrect or a publication in error, it is all too easy to think that the scientist who came up with this theory is a liar or a dishonest fraudster intent on misleading the public for personal gain. Or as Richard Smith, former editor of the British Medical Journal, puts it: Most scientific studies are wrong, and they are wrong because scientists are interested in funding and careers rather than truth.

Companies and hedge funds are catching up with the fact that so many published studies are misleading—because it’s one thing to have the study published in a journal, with the publishers making money and the authors enjoying “fame and the love of beautiful women,” but it’s another thing to invest millions of dollars in what appear to be new possible treatments or diagnostic tests when the result may be wrong. So companies are learning the importance of replicating studies, and a recent study by Amgen of preclinical studies showed that 80-90% could not be replicated. Hedge funds have thus become nervous about investing in what seem to be promising scientific results and are hiring contract research organisations to replicate studies before they make any investments.

What the data shows is business as usual: that scientists can be biased (not news), and that most scientific theories, in the end, are thrown on the garbage heap.

I'll tell you again because perhaps you don't understand this. In cancer for example or heart diseases or even benign prostatic hyperplasia there is 100x the magnitude and effort put into than AGA. Not one scientist is working there, but 100 guys even in team effort. The biggest pharmaceutical companies are working on it. Yet we see how it goes to come up with better treatments or a cure. Scientists come up with findings everyday, everyday new hypotheses are out in the field. Yet it's extremely difficult to find better treatments. What makes you think the AGA pathology differs much?

Results is what matters dude. Real evidence. Period. You can't show it can you? Yes that's right you can't. Come back to me when you can, that is when I will be excited.

[It's2014ComeOnAlready]

You keep talking about hope. My interest and optimism has little do with hope, and rather the science, scientists, companies, and compounds being used. I have read every study on PGD2 in relation to hair loss, as well as those on bimatoprost. I won't continue to argue the prostaglandin route with you, because you think it's bogus. OK...science and major pharmaceutical companies say otherwise.

Don't reply to me, I don't care what you have to say. You add nothing to the conversation.

[Swooping]

You keep talking about hope. My interest and optimism has little do with hope, and rather the science, scientists, companies, and compounds being used. I have read every study on PGD2 in relation to hair loss, as well as those on bimatoprost. I won't continue to argue the prostaglandin route with you, because you think it's bogus. OK...science and major pharmaceutical companies say otherwise.

Don't reply to me, I don't care what you have to say. You add nothing to the conversation.

Yeah I will. What science? The PGD2 angle is based on 0 evidence, its a hypothesis. Case closed lol.

[Illusion]

Interesting links Swooping, will definiely read them when I have the time. I'm really an average Joe when it comes to science, so when I first glanced through the articles you posted I was pretty surprised.

Do you work in this field? You seem to know quite a lot about the whole scene.

[sdsurfin]

Don't feed the swooping. He just wants to sound smart. Shitty armchair scientist spouting off. Pgd2 has been studied extensively for several years now and it's development has the backing of some very smart people. In vitro it has proven effects on human hair growth. Every reason to be hopeful that it'll be useful. Might not work but there's really no reason to think that unless you believe the inane pseudo science babble and hyper linking of some dumbass forum poster over the efforts of the worlds top researchers and medical companies. My GUESS is that it will be very good ataintensnce combined with a growth agonist. Either way there's a lot of competition to be the next propecia car this point. Someone will win. Now stop polluting the threads with your hot garbage pessimism.

[sdsurfin]

Well not everything. Obviously CB-03-01 is a androgen receptor antagonist, it is more exciting than systemic 5ar2 blocking. If they manage to get good results and the compound has a very good safety profile with no side effects it will be great. They would still need to be convinced it will be a monetizing product for them to launch to market though. Who wouldn’t want a finasteride without any side effects? If it launches and proves to be great, people should be having no excuses to lose their hair anymore. Or at least 90+% of the people. It won’t grow your hair back though.

Besides that as FearTheLoss mentioned I hope that innovation in the HT industry will progress. I’m working on this matter currently and most likely I’ll be visiting the hair congress in November. I have had conversations already with people who will be focusing on this who are in the industry which is great. Ultimately a cooperation between some hair transplant doctors and cell biologists would be very good. With in vivo trial & error they will crack it, I’m certain of it. The proof of concept is there already. Jahoda even induced de-novo hair follicle morphogenesis simply by using his fresh dermal sheath cells on his wife his arm. The will needs to be there though. Take as an example Dr. Wesley, the guy is a practical genius. You need people like him. I wouldn’t be surprised if in the future a functional cure will arise first from this sector.

Besides that every drug or cell based treatment on the frontpage will be a fail. Bimatoprost isn’t going to outperform minoxidil by a great margin which will be needed for Allergan. They need something that beats the shit out of it. It would have to show like 200%+ efficiency improvement over the initial trial, extreme rare that such a thing happens. Scientists already predetermine the pharmacokinetics of such compounds in pre-clinical trials to calculate receptor affinity ratio’s. Besides that, by increasing the dosage it will most likely bring on more side effects. The occurrence of side effects of bimatoprost was equal to minoxidil at a LOWER dosage. Using 10x concentrations is insane and most likely will yield stronger side effects. Just look at what natural PGF2A does at a proper dosage, bodybuilders use it and it’s used in vetinary. The side effects are (extremely) harsh at a high dosage. Bimatoprost is nothing more than a analog of natural occurring PGF2A which isn’t patentable. Lutalyse, have a search for it. So yeah if people have a problem with minoxidil side effects good luck with a high dosage of bimatoprost. Allergan is already quiet. They would have no reason to be quiet. There is a stigma on companies to release failures. They like to keep such things quiet. Spencer said the same thing in his last show, that they would have no reason to keep quiet if the results were positive. It makes zero sense.

For Setipiprant I just have a feeling that Cotsarelis is trolling Kythera to get his paycheck in. I can’t possible believe, that he believes that the pathology is purely inflammatory based and is that simple. Especially with the most recent findings of other scientists. It doesn’t make any sense. Literally nobody followed up his work. In other words nobody shows interest for the PGD2 angle in current research. There is no genetical basis for the PGD2 Theory either; http://s23.postimg.org/pn1r4ooy3/pgd2genetic.jpg. I don’t think the guy even has a drive anymore, but just wants his paycheck lol. It’s going to fail in my book. PGD2 lays downstream in the inflammatory cascade and is most likely even mediated by higher upstream inflammatory pathways. There are other important things happening in AGA. The discussions I had with guys who either study biology or work in the hair related field, they all basically concur on it.

Last but not least Follicept. I don’t really want to get to deep into this. I could write 4 pages with evidence why this has almost 0 chance of working. No way that it will even touch minoxidil. You can read some arguments in the topic of Follicept. Although I want to reiterate that we are finally grasping the concept of AGA. I’m certain of it. The pathology is getting more clear every day. Who knows maybe even a compound will get discovered accidently just like minoxidil was found to be very good at growing hair by accident. Unexpected things can and do happen. It all proves to be extremely hard though.

Over 80 percent of that post is either complete misinformation or complete speculation about what motivates companies and what they need to succeed. Also you don't need to fix every pathway to grow hair. Minoxidil doesn't address any pathway specifically that we know of and still maintains and regrows hair. There is no reason to think we will not improve on finasteride and minoxidil, or that cotsarellis is angling for a paycheck. That is ludicrous. His cream chose a company to work with off the bat, which is why other companies are not working with his research. It's actually pretty amazing how fast they capitalized on this research. Cotsarellis a a rich doctor with a guaranteed salary already he's passionate about curing hair loss. Swooping you're a complete troll and a blowhard. please get a life. I've signed an nda with folliceptso I can't say more about it but their science is very promising and there's much reason for hope.