Buying replicel stock thread

[clandestine]

being part of the trial wont give you a full head of hair I think unless it's one of the rewards of being in the trial....they only inject the stuff in one specific area of the scalp like a 2cm square.

there isnt really a placebo group either, they inject the cells in one side and placebo on the other.


Btw, does anybody or spencer know the release date (exact one) of the results?

I heard from twitter it was late april dont know if its true.

First it was early March. Then, early April. Now, late April.

Beggars can't be choosers, but this is torture.

[sausage]

It probably pays well though and you would not have to do much.

[bananana]

First it was early March. Then, early April. Now, late April.

Beggars can't be choosers, but this is torture.

Well, officially - it was "April 2012", not late March, or any precise date in April.

We are all very anxious about the results - but we also need to have patience.

[gmonasco]

It probably pays well though

I'm not sure it would, as the nature of the treatment doesn't seem to require that trial participants dedicate a lot of time or experience much discomfort, the factors on which payment is usually based.

[sausage]

I'm not sure it would, as the nature of the treatment doesn't seem to require that trial participants dedicate a lot of time or experience much discomfort, the factors on which payment is usually based.

I expect they would otherwise whats the point, there could potentially be risks involved.

Did you not hear about those tests 5-10 years ago where people blew up like balloons.

Ł1000 in my eyes would be well paid, if it simply involves a few injections and a few catch up days. But would not be surprised if they get more than that.

[Sogeking]

I'm not sure it would, as the nature of the treatment doesn't seem to require that trial participants dedicate a lot of time or experience much discomfort, the factors on which payment is usually based.

Sounds like a well written sarcasm to me if I've read correctly?
But the irony is there is a grain of truth to it .

On topic:
At first it was March as the month for trial results to be presented, but soon after it was changed to April.

What I fear the most is that all of this treatments just won't have good enough effectivnes.
I fear that if we take 51 FU per cm^2 as an average in frontal hairline that these treatments will get something as 10-15 FU per cm^2 on top of your scalp in average. Leaving you wanting more...

[Maradona]

Sounds like a well written sarcasm to me if I've read correctly?
But the irony is there is a grain of truth to it .

On topic:
At first it was March as the month for trial results to be presented, but soon after it was changed to April.

What I fear the most is that all of this treatments just won't have good enough effectivnes.
I fear that if we take 51 FU per cm^2 as an average in frontal hairline that these treatments will get something as 10-15 FU per cm^2 on top of your scalp in average. Leaving you wanting more...

Them delaying the release dates doesn't sound like good news : ( .

[gmonasco]

I expect they would otherwise whats the point, there could potentially be risks involved.

Yes, there are generally risks involved (even if they may be minor and rare) in any type of clinical testing, which is one reason why subjects are usually offered some form of compensation for participating. But the amount of that compensation is typically linked to what the subjects have to undergo during the course of the testing. If there's a good deal of discomfort involved in the administration or endurance of the treatment, or if participants have to give up a good deal of their time to report in and undergo batteries of examinations and tests to monitor the progress of the treatment and their general health, then they might expect to receive a higher compensation.

I don't know for sure, but I don't get the sense that those factors come into play much with the Replicel testing. Likely subjects are getting a few initial injections which probably aren't all that discomforting, then they're making occasional follow-up visits so their hair growth can be measured and their general health assessed. That doesn't seem to me to be a situation which would usually merit a particularly high rate of compensation.

[lpenergy]

Cause of the delay

Ok, so this cause of the delay has got me thinking about the cause. If it is true that they initially were going to report the results in early March, I imagine that this timeline estimate was purely timeline-based. The last participant's hair test location is measured, and the hairs are counted. It is pretty simple in my mind, just counting and reporting.

So, why the delay? My speculative mind has a few ideas:

1) Photo Delay: The results were good, but they are just waiting for some of the new hairs to grow out a little more to make for a better before and after photograph. Could it be possible that some of the effects were delayed, and waiting an additional couple of months could make an improved photo?

2) Uncooperative Participant: What if one of the participants became uncooperative or did not return for a follow-up? I would call this an "Administrative Delay".

3) Stock Sale Delay: I remember reading that most shares were locked up, but that on a quarterly basis, some shares could be released and sold. If this were the case, and the study results were not good, this would enable some large shareholders to get out prior to the announcement. Does someone know if this is true or can verify this?

4) More Analysis Delay: If results were bad to so-so, Replicel might need time to frame the results. They would need explanations to explain the results and have answers to their shareholders. This could involve additional scientific analysis.


Bottom line, there could be many reasons for the delay. If it pushes beyond April, something is clearly wrong. If Spencer were to interview Replicel prior to the release date of the results, I would want him to ask why they were initially planning on March and now it is pushed out approximately 60 days. Isn't it just as simple as counting hours in the test zone. Any surprises and results can be scrutinized and researched further over the coming months. I am not in the medical research industry, so I don't know what is normal.

[Maradona]

Ok, so this cause of the delay has got me thinking about the cause. If it is true that they initially were going to report the results in early March, I imagine that this timeline estimate was purely timeline-based. The last participant's hair test location is measured, and the hairs are counted. It is pretty simple in my mind, just counting and reporting.

So, why the delay? My speculative mind has a few ideas:

1) Photo Delay: The results were good, but they are just waiting for some of the new hairs to grow out a little more to make for a better before and after photograph. Could it be possible that some of the effects were delayed, and waiting an additional couple of months could make an improved photo?

2) Uncooperative Participant: What if one of the participants became uncooperative or did not return for a follow-up? I would call this an "Administrative Delay".

3) Stock Sale Delay: I remember reading that most shares were locked up, but that on a quarterly basis, some shares could be released and sold. If this were the case, and the study results were not good, this would enable some large shareholders to get out prior to the announcement. Does someone know if this is true or can verify this?

4) More Analysis Delay: If results were bad to so-so, Replicel might need time to frame the results. They would need explanations to explain the results and have answers to their shareholders. This could involve additional scientific analysis.


Bottom line, there could be many reasons for the delay. If it pushes beyond April, something is clearly wrong. If Spencer were to interview Replicel prior to the release date of the results, I would want him to ask why they were initially planning on March and now it is pushed out approximately 60 days. Isn't it just as simple as counting hours in the test zone. Any surprises and results can be scrutinized and researched further over the coming months. I am not in the medical research industry, so I don't know what is normal.

yeah but the delay is just a month, they never even mentioned an exact date only first quarter. I'm just following the guys saying that it was supposed to be in march now im reading it's late april. We are sounding like desesperate bald men lol, but we definitely are and should chill out on the release date it's not like histogen/follica at least.


Btw, spencer already contacted replicel for an interview before their results( he will also do it right after the results), so if you guys think it's a good idea, post here that you want this interview before the results are published.

I'm sure he is waiting for your response, if you want this interview or not. So Just post somewhere if you want it .

God bless Spencer

[sausage]

As long as it isn't delayed again then thats fine. Only a couple of weeks til April

[lpenergy]

Replicel Private Placement

I was about to drop this post into the main discussion for Replicel, but it really relates more to the stock and may be of more limited interest.

I dug around a bit on the Private Placement recently announced. Initially, I was curious if this funding had any bearing on Phase II research, which might indicate undisclosed success of phase 1. I dug a bit through their financials, and it appears likely that this private equity placement is exactly as stated in the press release and was to meet “general working capital needs”.

What I was hoping for was an indication that this money would have no other purpose other than for phase II testing. On pg. 21 of the NBT research report, it states that "Replicel needs to complete a $5 to $10 million round of funding over the next 90-120 days to completely fund the company through Phase II trials." The research report was dated 12/3/2011. So, that time range would place the additional funding sometime in March. So, I decided to do a little cash analysis to determine if this money would be considered part of the $5-$10 million of funding for phase II testing. The fact that this funding has not happened yet seems consistent with their approximate 30 day delay of phase 1 results.

Cash Analysis:
Cash on hand 9/30/2011: $1,210,000 (Per Q3 2011 Balance Sheet)
Cash used by Ops (as of 9/30/2011): 2,470,414
Cash used by Ops (as of 3/31/2011): 963,914
Cash used / month = (2,470,414-963,914)/6 = $251,083

So, I get a burn rate a little different from the NBT research report, which showed a burn rate of $100,000 per month, which could be due to excluding the cost of the clinical trials. At any rate, if Replicel burned through their cash at $250k/month, they would have already run out of cash by now (unless they had an unannounced private placement since 9/30/2011). That may have been what the $99k was for provided at the end of February. However, some of their costs such as the cost to run the Clinical trial may be variable. The end result is that it seems that this initial private placement of $1.3 million was for general operations.

However, the statement says that Replicel plans on issuing additional tranches of equity financing over the next several weeks at the same terms as this tranche, which would be their execution of the Phase II funding. It would have no other purpose and would not be needed to meet their current cash needs. Additionally, it may be dependent upon successful phase 1 funding. I don’t know if this will be prior to the release date of the phase 1, but it will be worth keeping an eye on this funding.

[sickly_burnt_tree_forest]

I am so completely worried about the delay, i dont even care now about the stock prices anymore. i dont care if i have to sell my soul, god knows that hairloss has already taken it anyways...doesn anyone out there know if they were even able to grow one hair on a human head?

[Maradona]

I am so completely worried about the delay, i dont even care now about the stock prices anymore. i dont care if i have to sell my soul, god knows that hairloss has already taken it anyways...doesn anyone out there know if they were even able to grow one hair on a human head?

Why wouldn't they be able to grow hair? This type of procedure has been done by other companies. The problem lies whether or not this will make it past phase 2.

But phase 1 results will be a great indicator of where this treatment is heading to.

[greatjob!]

What delay does everyone keep referring to? I thought that the target release date was April 2012 all along, so they are right on track. Every thread is referring to some delay, maybe I'm missing something.