Aderans Research update

[eqvist]

Did´n rogaine hit the market under the phase III? Before it was done?

[eqvist]

Another thing, a think it´s a good thing that it have taken a some time to finish the phase. But the still keep on fighting for a cure!!!

[UK_]

exactly. All of their money comes from investors who can pull their money out at any time.
If the investors had no hope for their treatment to work, they would have stopped giving them money and the company would have failed.
The company is still alive. Investors believe in them, why don't you?

Tell that to the people who invested in WorldCom (MCI Inc).

'Belief', in the world of investments, can be a funny term. The only company who have showed any real progress thus far is Histogen, they've fought a court battle for their procedure and won, clearly they've got something worth fighting for. The board at Replicel also looks very impressive.

[CVAZBAR]

You don't get it, do you? Please inform yourself about the stages of clinical trials and what they are there for. Phase II is mostly about optimizing, optimizing and optimizing, especially for a new treatment like this.
Looking forward when people start to blame Replicel, because they need longer than expected, which is, just for the record, totally normal.

Look, I understand you like to come here and act as if you know it all. There's plenty dudes of your type. My problem is real simple. They keep promising dates and fail to deliver. If you can't understand the frustration and disappointment behind that, I really don't give a shit. Yes, no shit trials take time but theres also a finish line right? To be honest, I try to follow the real scientist behind every treatment and if they keep making changes, I base my opinions on that. I don't know who you are for me to believe anything you say. You've been saying the same shit over and over. What Aderans has been doing is good. I have hope they will succeed and bring something to the market. The changes are what makes me frustrated.

[CVAZBAR]

I'll add to what krewel said in his response to you. Aderans apparently extended phase 2 to see if the hairs that were regrown went through the proper growth cycle, and if thats true, its a damn good thing that they chose to do that considering that they are trying to create a permanent solution. If they were struggling to find investors (which they aren't considering that huge recent investment they received), then I would be worried that they were having problems with growth.

These treatments aren't over-the-counter products. They go through clinical trials, and trials take time. Thats the reality, as frustrating as it can be.

You just said it - "If that's true". This is the point I'm trying to make. We just don't know shit. We basically have to follow their progress and listen to what they say. Damn right it's frustrating.

[Pate]

The reason Aderans Phase IIs took so long is because they had to run multiple trials because the initial results weren't so good.

The initial trials only had something like 30% of subjects achieving results of at least 13 hairs per square centimetre. Later trials had this up over 70% and presumably the best results were decently better than 13 hairs.

They are using Phase II to perfect the process because Phase III is much bigger and more expensive. Assuming they get a result they're happy to market, they should only need one Phase III.

So the argument that because Phase II took so long, Phase III is going to as well is not necessarily right. If they finish up Phase II next year and go straight into Phase III and get the results they are hoping for, we could still see Aderans on the market in 2015. But at this stage it doesn't look like a full cure. Just streets ahead of anything we have available today...

[Kirby_]

But at this stage it doesn't look like a full cure. Just streets ahead of anything we have available today...

That's all we can hope for, really. However, getting any better treatments is better than getting nothing new at all.

[Sogeking]

@gnomasco
They started phase 1 trials in 2006. Phase 2 started in 2008.

But at this stage it doesn't look like a full cure. Just streets ahead of anything we have available today...

That's all we can hope for, really. However, getting any better treatments is better than getting nothing new at all.

Same here. Everyone knows this will not be the full blown cure but if it gets really good results our possibilities are much better. Starting from HTs, Toppik or Nanogen...

[Kampung101]

The claim was that Aderans extended the current phase 2 testing "to see if the hairs that were regrown went through the proper growth cycle." The current phase 2 testing hasn't been going on since 2006.

Yes, phase 2 hasn't been going on since 06, but since it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to include phase 1 participants in phase 2, following those participants development would have an effect on how they go about with the second trial.

[Kampung101]

You just said it - "If that's true". This is the point I'm trying to make. We just don't know shit. We basically have to follow their progress and listen to what they say. Damn right it's frustrating.

Of course we don't have the kind of information that the conductors of the trials have. But its not exactly a good thing to just immediately jump to a conclusion with complete certainty when for example a trial phase is extended and say "well screw this this" or something along those lines. This board went into almost sheer hysterics when Histogen changed their website and for a period of time didn't have their trial timeline on of their pages.

[krewel]

This board went into almost sheer hysterics when Histogen changed their website and for a period of time didn't have their trial timeline on of their pages.

It was not this board, it was RichardDawkins, I will never forget that. I don't know what was wrong with him. Anway, we need to be patient. I'm sure nothing is wrong with Aderans...

[UK_]

The reason Aderans Phase IIs took so long is because they had to run multiple trials because the initial results weren't so good.

The initial trials only had something like 30% of subjects achieving results of at least 13 hairs per square centimetre. Later trials had this up over 70% and presumably the best results were decently better than 13 hairs.

They are using Phase II to perfect the process because Phase III is much bigger and more expensive. Assuming they get a result they're happy to market, they should only need one Phase III.

So the argument that because Phase II took so long, Phase III is going to as well is not necessarily right. If they finish up Phase II next year and go straight into Phase III and get the results they are hoping for, we could still see Aderans on the market in 2015. But at this stage it doesn't look like a full cure. Just streets ahead of anything we have available today...

Well thats the other theory - that they've already tested "the chosen one" by the time they hit Phase III next year, so therefore Phase III shouldn't take too long. Id love to believe it however im not seeing enough media coverage, interest and general hype about a company that seems to be on the brink of one of the most greatest clinical discoveries mankind has ever seen.

What happened to Acell?

[Kampung101]

Well thats the other theory - that they've already tested "the chosen one" by the time they hit Phase III next year, so therefore Phase III shouldn't take too long. Id love to believe it however im not seeing enough media coverage, interest and general hype about a company that seems to be on the brink of one of the most greatest clinical discoveries mankind has ever seen.

What happened to Acell?

There have a lot of really good clinical discoveries that have come about that had little media hype.

As for Acell (something that had lots of hype surrounding it), that should probably serve as evidence against the notion that "this doesn't have a lot of hype surrounding it, therefore, I shouldn't take it that seriously".

[CVAZBAR]

Of course we don't have the kind of information that the conductors of the trials have. But its not exactly a good thing to just immediately jump to a conclusion with complete certainty when for example a trial phase is extended and say "well screw this this" or something along those lines. This board went into almost sheer hysterics when Histogen changed their website and for a period of time didn't have their trial timeline on of their pages.

Those weren't my intentions. Im not trying to be Richard Dawkins. That comment was out of frustration. Even though I know Aderans is still moving along, I can't really say it's all good that they keep extending the finish line. If they had what they wanted, there would be no reason to do this. Like I said, I still believe they can get this done. But who knows when?

[Kampung101]

Those weren't my intentions. Im not trying to be Richard Dawkins. That comment was out of frustration. Even though I know Aderans is still moving along, I can't really say it's all good that they keep extending the finish line. If they had what they wanted, there would be no reason to do this. Like I said, I still believe they can get this done. But who knows when?

Oh, I know what you mean. I also find it sometimes frustrating too. And you're right, they wouldn't be extending phase 2 if they had what they wanted, but as someone pointed out earlier, phase 2 is all about optimizing. If they can get to the best optimal results through this path, I'm mostly fine with that, since if it comes to market, then the treatment will be achieving its full potential. I feel your frustration of having to wait more, which is the downside of extending a trial, but in the end, I'd rather have a treatment out in the market thats able to achieve the best possible results it can do, rather achieving only say half those results.

And you're also right about when they can get it done. None of us know when (or if) it will happen, but I support it just as much as I support Replicel, Histogen and any of the new potential treatments out there that are being worked on.