Replicel Blog

[VictimOfDHT]

I think the thing with Histogen was that they were having trouble finding recruits in Singapore for Phase II that hadn't been on Rogaine or Propecia within the past 6 months. So I think now they're recruiting people from another Eastern country. What's cool is that I think that in some Eastern countries, they can make a product available to people after Phase II, after safety regulations have been met. So hopefully this would be possible and would tide us over until something else comes along. I think that they said that 2015 would be the year that these products would be released in the U.S., but that it would be available worldwide before then. It is very hard to get stuff approved the corrupt FDA so perhaps that's why their timeline is longer for release in the U.S. I mean after all, that's why Histogen, Replicel, and Follica are conducting their clinical trials outside of the U.S. and Canada so that they won't be bogged down by FDA regulations.

Actually, if these guys actually succeed in regrowing hair and have some kind of a treatment available by 2013 there would be no need for FDA approval. They don't even need to bother with doing anything in the US or canada. I'm sure if they have something available it won't matter for people who want to put an end to their misery (baldness) where the treatment will be available as they'd be willing to go to the moon -not just Asia or E. Europe- to get treated. To me and I'm sure most, what matters is when not where as the place is absolutely irrelevant.

[kanyon]

Yeah, it would be a great excuse for a holiday. But on returning home it might be problematic contacting the doctors overseas if you have issues after the treatment/operation.

[Pate]

How do you know the effects would be compoundable? Also, can someone explain to me how a 10-15% success rate is considered "very successful"? I'm not being sarcastic, I'm actually confused on that logic.

Nobody knows for sure it'll be compoundable but I believe the logic is that it may be only a certain percentage of follicles are in the inductive state at any one time, so any single treatment might only work on, say, 20% of follicles (or whatever).

So if you repeat the process 3 months later you'll find another 20% of follicles ready, and so on. It may be a "law of dimishing returns" situation where each successive treatment is less effective but the overall results are compounding.

But this all needs to be tested. First indication of whether these treatments are compoundable will be Histogen's 6-week follow up injections.

As for the 10-15% being "very successful" I think you need to keep in mind that unlike Aderans, Replicel is a publicly listed company and needs to grow its share price (so that any future capital raisings will be more effective). First rule of CEO statements is to "Under-promise and over-deliver" and I suspect that is happening here.

Consider two scenarios:

1. CEO says "An excellent result would be to grow 100% more hair." Actual result is 30% more hair. Market reaction: FAILURE! Share price plunges.

2. CEO says "An excellent result would be to grow 15% more hair." Actual result is 30% more hair. Market reaction: WOW!!! Share price goes up.

So I think the fact he's giving those numbers indicates they expect maybe 30% growth, but are covering themselves so even if they only get 15% they can say it performed to expectation and the share price won't collapse.

[Sogeking]

How do you know the effects would be compoundable? Also, can someone explain to me how a 10-15% success rate is considered "very successful"? I'm not being sarcastic, I'm actually confused on that logic.

Pate explained it very well, the only thing I would like to add is the study Dr. Cotsarelis published in January where they realized MPB sufferes still have inactive hair follicles on their scalp. And Replicel is basically going for awakening of those hair follicles (Can I write going for awakening??? ). So basically I believe effects could be compundable with diminshing returns as Pate put it.

10-15% is also good given current situation. With Propecia most of the time regrowth is smallerr than shown in the study for it. And if you don't care about side effects you still have to ake it continuosly with only of slowing down the process.

Now this hair, when using Replicel, if it regrows should stay otherwise they won't market the product. 10-15% regrowth is still better than nothing and in worst case scenario if that is the only thing you get, it makes HT look more realistic and so on. However as I said the worst case scenario described above won't be profitable so I don't think they would sell the product if it comes to that.