Histogen Update - Spencer Kobren Speaks With Dr. Craig L. Ziering

[jak385]

It may be that 2mm is the average figure and for some reason, Subjects 009 and 027 had a much wider radius of effect, or the 2mm figure could just be incorrect, although this is second time I've seen it in from them. Either way, 25 hairs in a 2mm radius means two things - HSC will effectively restore full hair density, but you will need a very large number of injections.

Well first off, I'm gonna make it very clear that maths was never my strongest subject, but I'm gonna give this a go anyways...

Looking at the subject photos that have an actual size scale on them like this one:
[IMG]http://www.************/hair-loss/img/uploaded/1_image776.jpg[/IMG]

You can clearly see the 2mm scale in the bottom right of each image, so assuming that the 2mm scale in the photos actually does represent 2mm scale correctly then the area of scalp shown in that picture is approximately 15mm across.

If a 4mm diameter results in 25 hairs then by my shoddy maths (anyone is free to show me how I've calculated this wrong) but a 15mm area would produce an average of 93.75 hairs (4mm x 3.75 = 15mm, so 25 hairs x 3.75 area increase = 93.75 hairs).

In the patient above he actually has 97.5 more hairs after 5 months (433 - 335.5)within a 15mm area of his scaslp so that 2mm = 25 new hairs figure actually seems correct. Assuming again i'm working this out right....

If they only did one injection per site though as I thought they had, then I have no idea where these findings are coming from spread over such an area. It seems the 25 hairs per 2mm radius may be right, but this area of positive effect being 2mm i can't see considering the posted results so far. Unless they did more than one injection or something?

[krewel]

We got 15mm x 15mm which mean 2,25cm². We got 97,5 additional hairs after treatment. 97,5 / 2,25 = 43,3. That means about 43,4 hairs per cm².
But you can't really calculate it in this way, because that guy already has hairs, but if we involve his existing hair, that guy reached about 192 hairs per cm².
Should be enough I think.
So if I'm not wrong this is a success because it's not about the amount of regrown hair, it's about the total amount of hair. HSC job is not to create new follicles, it's job is to "reactivate" inactive hairfollicles. Since this guy already had 148 hairs per cm², he almost reached 200 hairs per cm² what actually means he almost "reactivated" most of his follicles. I may understand this whole thing in a wrong way, but this seems logical to me, haha.

[GreatSage]

Anyone know or predict how much this will cost when/if it comes out? hopefully less than how much a HT costs..

[Pate]

You can clearly see the 2mm scale in the bottom right of each image, so assuming that the 2mm scale in the photos actually does represent 2mm scale correctly then the area of scalp shown in that picture is approximately 15mm across.

Good find. So the 2mm figure is clearly not right for everybody because that subject has clearly put on hair over a much larger area than a 2mm radius circle.

If a 4mm diameter results in 25 hairs then by my shoddy maths (anyone is free to show me how I've calculated this wrong) but a 15mm area would produce an average of 93.75 hairs (4mm x 3.75 = 15mm, so 25 hairs x 3.75 area increase = 93.75 hairs).

Your maths is not quite right for a couple of reasons including the fact that the 15mm figure is a square, not a circle. So a 4mm diameter is 0.125 sq cm as I said earlier, and 15x15mm square is 2.25 sq cm. In other words, 18 times bigger area. As krewel said 100 hairs in 2.25 sq cm is about new 40 hairs per sq cm but we don't actually know what the radius of effect was - Histogen said 2mm but that looks clearly wrong in those photos.

Also this is obviously one of the better results. Also, most of those 100 new hairs were vellus at 5 months, though from previous results released we know there was a bit of a quiet period at 5 months and things looked better at 12 months.

Long story short, HSC isn't looking like a silver bullet yet. Most guys who are noticeably thinning are going to need at LEAST a 100% increase in terminal hair count to count as 'cured'. But it's still early days and these results were from only a single injection.

We still have to look forward to:

1. Multiple adjacent injections (currently happening)
2. Follow up injections (currently happening)
3. Dose ranging study - higher HSC concentration might help
4. Possible further tweaking of the mixture.

So it's not time to celebrate yet but there are grounds for cautious optimism IMO. As for cost, if it was just one set of injections I'd think it would be a fair bit cheaper than a HT. Certainly it shouldn't be more expensive, the companies involved in this field are all hinting it should be cheaper (mainly because it will be quicker and not require so many people). But obviously if we need two or three sets of injections that will drive up the cost.

And we'd probably need to get it re-done because the effect will eventually wear off. Naughton thinks it will last potentially decades, but I'm not sure (and neither is she for that matter!).

[Dasani]

I wasn't able to tune in to the show tonight, did Spencer mention anything about new information and/or an interview with Histogen?

[uninformed]

I wasn't able to tune in to the show tonight, did Spencer mention anything about new information and/or an interview with Histogen?

Anyone? or was there no show this week? can't find the podcast...

[RichardDawkins]

If there would be something groundbreaking we would already hear those segments

[Kiwi]

If there would be something groundbreaking we would already hear those segments

One could say the same about Gho mate. At least in the context of this thread...

[VictimOfDHT]

Anyone? or was there no show this week? can't find the podcast...

I'm not sure but I don't think there was a show last Sun. I checked at 7:15 pm and there was nothing on . So I dont think he was on.

[RichardDawkins]

This is Histogen land and not Gho land anyway Gho has been on this show alrady

[HairTalk]

Any update from Histogen? It's been a while, now.

[Kiwi]

Any update from Histogen? It's been a while, now.

Nope. But I'm still waiting patiently. Nobody else apart from Aderans seems to be anywhere near as close to a solution... even a partial solution.

[Kampung101]

Nope. But I'm still waiting patiently. Nobody else apart from Aderans seems to be anywhere near as close to a solution... even a partial solution.

Actually, Follica completed their phase 2 trials this summer (if I'm correct on that). Aderans is deep into their phase 2 trial and will finish it at the end of next year. So it can be argued that Follica is actually the that is closest (and if you look at the patents they've been getting, it looks like it might be more than just a partial solution).

[Kiwi]

Actually, Follica completed their phase 2 trials this summer (if I'm correct on that). Aderans is deep into their phase 2 trial and will finish it at the end of next year. So it can be argued that Follica is actually the that is closest (and if you look at the patents they've been getting, it looks like it might be more than just a partial solution).

I'm pretty sure that Follica are actually finishing Phase 1 and starting Phase 2. Are you sure you dont mean replicel? However if you are correct then I cant wait to hear the news and see the photographic results

[Kampung101]

I'm pretty sure that Follica are actually finishing Phase 1 and starting Phase 2. Are you sure you dont mean replicel? However if you are correct then I cant wait to hear the news and see the photographic results

No I'm pretty sure they completed phase 2. If you go to www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu and type in Follica in the search bar and then click on DE you can read the info on the trial and that it was completed in July. In addition, a caller on Spencer's recent show talked about Follica and how they completed phase 2, which Spencer confirmed.

And yes, hopefully Follica can be a little less secretive and post some photos, though I think its ultimately up to the shareholders on the info that can be released.