Trx2?

[TheUltimatePoet]

I know this is hyperbole, but are you kidding me? I want someone to come along and explain why this is totally not like TRX2 or the other shady things we've seen before. I would love for this to be the real deal. If it is you can have a good laugh at my expense before I run out to buy this and begin my new career as a hair model.

Haha! I'll buy all the products you model for!

TRX2 was before my time on this forum, so I am not that familiar with the details, but from skimming a few of the posts I can tell there are a few similarities. I think it is a good cautionary tale. Still, follicept do not strike me as being in the same category.

Here is mye prediction for what is going to happen:
The follicept trial will be disappointing and inconclusive and we will see vague reports with things like "I think my shedding has slowed", "I think I see some vellus hair" etc. But when this happens, follicept will stay true to their word and they will not sell it. Instead they will use their vehicle with another growth stimulant in a new test. Maybe they will make a deal with some other company, like the ones who are developing CB-03-01 who had some dosage/vehicle problems.


But... I hope I am wrong.

[Afghanwig]

No, they have a vehicle which gets large molecules past the skin. The IGF-1 treatment has nothing to do with diabetes.

And the diabetes market is huge. Plus, it's a life-long, daily treatment condition whereas they said the AGA protocol might end up requiring only monthly boosters after initial regrowth. And since it won't be covered by insurance or Medicare they can't charge gadzooks amount of money for it.

But you're right - none of us knows that the real deal is with follicept's treatment. Including, by their own admission, Follicept themselves. It is not magical thinking to simply hope it works out.

It's the whole way Follicept has been presenting themselves. Big marketing talk on their website without even having tried their product on humans. And then there's the fact that IGF-1 failed in humans, via injections. So of course this won't work, it's been tried before and failed. That whole argument about their vehicle is nonsense, at best it can spread it out a bit more evenly than injections but injections didnt even grow hair at the injection site. So there's 0 hope for this to work.

AGA is really complicated and there's just no way it can be solved by something as simple as administering a single growthfactor. It's been tried years ago already. Then that whole marketing campaign, the big talk, the forum on their website, the trial without control, without temp tattoo's without trichoscan, it's quite obvious why they're all doing that. If you can't see that, you have a LOT to learn about how things work in the world of hairloss products ...

[cuprous]

Who really knows what the deal is with Follicept? There is speculation they want to use their hair loss product to fund an insulin treatment, which strikes me as odd. I mean, the market for AGA products has to be way bigger than that for diabetic treatments.

No, they have a vehicle which gets large molecules past the skin. The IGF-1 treatment has nothing to do with diabetes.

And the diabetes market is huge. Plus, it's a life-long, daily treatment condition whereas they said the AGA protocol might end up requiring only monthly boosters after initial regrowth. And since it won't be covered by insurance or Medicare they can't charge gadzooks amount of money for it.

But you're right - none of us knows that the real deal is with follicept's treatment. Including, by their own admission, Follicept themselves. It is not magical thinking to simply hope it works out.

[Thinning@30]

And it's not unfounded optimism - there's plenty of science to back up what they are trying

Most scammers are able to cite plausible scientific rationales for their products. TRX2 was all about repairing potassium ion channels. Read the explanations behind capixyl or provillus. Of course, there are all sorts of things that regrow hair in mice. There has never been a better time to be a bald mouse. What matters is whether a treatment can be demonstrated to regrow hair in humans. Why didn't Follicept just come out and say "we don't know, but there is a plausible mechanism of action and some promising mice studies"? Why state that it is effective before any testing?

Of course there is every chance it won't work but I choose to remain optimistic based on what I've seen and read. I believe they are shooting straight.

It is this magical thinking--I don't know how else to describe it--that has me worried. Skepticism should be the default position for anything not undergoing three-phase clinical trials.

" If this doesn't work, we WILL NOT SELL it. We will move on, send an email to apologize, and all that you spent was time. I promise. If this doesn't convince you, nothing will, and that's fine. Just give us a little time."

And how exactly will we know if it works or doesn't work? As far as I know, there are no controls or defined endpoints. Unless future videos show Devon as a Norwood 0, we won't know. This week's update has vague statements like "some of the participants think they see some vellus hairs." Are we just going to get vague and ambiguous statements along the lines of "it totally stopped my hair loss" or "my hair and scalp feel so much healthier"?

Look, those of us who've been around a while have seen a lot. There are investment scams like Biologix Hair Inc., in which potential users of the product are not even the intended victims. There are also sociopaths like Nigam, who seem to crave the attention and adulation of forum members and just like being thought of as groundbreaking scientists. For a while, he even convinced a few legitimate doctors that he was on to something. Hell, a few forum members here still think he's cured baldness, if only we'd give him a chance. Who really knows what the deal is with Follicept? There is speculation they want to use their hair loss product to fund an insulin treatment, which strikes me as odd. I mean, the market for AGA products has to be way bigger than that for diabetic treatments. Diabetes strikes an unlucky minority, but almost every man who lives long enough, and a significant number of women, will deal with AGA at some point in their lives. Maybe some will come around and accept their hair loss, but I guarantee you not a single one of them looks in the mirror and thinks "Yay! my hair is starting to fall out!"

Maybe it's not so good to be utterly hyped over something. But the same thing can be said about being utterly negative, like you are. You are pretty much convinced that follicept are scoundrels and criminals who are hell bent on murdering all of us.

I know this is hyperbole, but are you kidding me? I want someone to come along and explain why this is totally not like TRX2 or the other shady things we've seen before. I would love for this to be the real deal. If it is you can have a good laugh at my expense before I run out to buy this and begin my new career as a hair model.

[TheUltimatePoet]

I disagree. They've stated their product is effective when they haven't even tested it in humans yet. That is exactly what TRX2 did and it is a huge red flag. You don't launch a marketing campaign around your product's effectiveness when you don't even know if it is effective.

I remember this post from the very first follicept thread.

https://www.baldtruthtalk.com/showthread.php?19176-follicept-what-s-this&p=198627&viewfull=1#post198627

Quote:
" If this doesn't work, we WILL NOT SELL it. We will move on, send an email to apologize, and all that you spent was time. I promise. If this doesn't convince you, nothing will, and that's fine. Just give us a little time."

I also don't get this attitude that skeptics need to just shut up. What is the point of even having a discussion forum, anyway? To be mindless cheerleaders for every unproven new product and treatment? To never express reservations so that everything becomes an exercise in groupthink? Follicept already has their own forum where they can control the conversation if they want to. Trust me, if they're sitting on the holy grail, they're not going to hold it back just because a few people on the internet were critical of them.

Personnally, I am skeptic and I don't think a rat trial is particularly promising on its own, but I am still hopeful!

And as far as I can tell, no one has told the skeptics to "shut up". What I have seen, and have been a part of myself, is to tell everyone who is labeling follicept as scammers to calm down a little bit. Wait until we see the results from their trial. The accusations have been ridiculous at times.


Maybe it's not so good to be utterly hyped over something. But the same thing can be said about being utterly negative, like you are. You are pretty much convinced that follicept are scoundrels and criminals who are hell bent on murdering all of us.

[bigentries]

It's not like they haven't asked money in the past for something it might not even work (their insulin patch)

[cuprous]

I disagree. They've stated their product is effective when they haven't even tested it in humans yet. That is exactly what TRX2 did and it is a huge red flag. You don't launch a marketing campaign around your product's effectiveness when you don't even know if it is effective.



Why be "positive" when it comes to unproven hair loss products? Unfounded optimism is exactly what snake oil sellers want. "Sure, this new product could be a wretched waste of your hard-earned money, but just think about how great it will be if it really does regrow your hair!"

I also don't get this attitude that skeptics need to just shut up. What is the point of even having a discussion forum, anyway? To be mindless cheerleaders for every unproven new product and treatment? To never express reservations so that everything becomes an exercise in groupthink? Follicept already has their own forum where they can control the conversation if they want to. Trust me, if they're sitting on the holy grail, they're not going to hold it back just because a few people on the internet were critical of them.

From their FAQ - "We also won't take your money until we are 100% confident in our product and have human results to show you."

They are even soliciting regular folks from the HL community to take part in their trial.

And it's not unfounded optimism - there's plenty of science to back up what they are trying. Of course there is every chance it won't work but I choose to remain optimistic based on what I've seen and read. I believe they are shooting straight.

Skepticism is definitely welcome, what's not ok is false analogies to them being scam artists when to date they have not asked for a red cent from anyone.

[Thinning@30]

Sure, a lot of what you wrote is true. But people getting excited about a possible treatment is ALWAYS going to happen. Follicept and Devon, in particular, have been incredibly forthright about what they are doing and progress of trials. If they ever say they need community donations to reformulate something or whatever then we can raise a red flag. Until then any talk about Follicept being disreputable is unfounded and unhelpful.

I disagree. They've stated their product is effective when they haven't even tested it in humans yet. That is exactly what TRX2 did and it is a huge red flag. You don't launch a marketing campaign around your product's effectiveness when you don't even know if it is effective.

let's all hang back and be positive until there is any development at all

Why be "positive" when it comes to unproven hair loss products? Unfounded optimism is exactly what snake oil sellers want. "Sure, this new product could be a wretched waste of your hard-earned money, but just think about how great it will be if it really does regrow your hair!"

I also don't get this attitude that skeptics need to just shut up. What is the point of even having a discussion forum, anyway? To be mindless cheerleaders for every unproven new product and treatment? To never express reservations so that everything becomes an exercise in groupthink? Follicept already has their own forum where they can control the conversation if they want to. Trust me, if they're sitting on the holy grail, they're not going to hold it back just because a few people on the internet were critical of them.

[cuprous]

I feel like it's worth revisiting this thread in light of all the current hype over Follicept. There does seem to be a curious psychological pheonomenon going on in that thread with the people getting all excited over it--at least the ones that aren't shills. I can't put my finger on it, but it's like a combination of naivete, scientific illiteracy, and wishful thinking. I wonder if a lot of the people getting excited are young or at least new to hair loss and haven't experienced the cycle of hype and disappointment that inevitably happens with these types of products.

It's funny how people said the exact same things about TRX2 that are now being said about Follicept: "a reputable university would never be attached in any way to a scam product," "PhD scientists wouldn't dare risk their reputation and professional standing by promoting a scam." It's also worth remembering how the folks behind TRX2 did some of the same things the Follicept people are doing now. Bold claims of efficacy before there has even been an internal trial based on nothing more than speculation. After all, TRX2 was "The treatment finally arrived!" They even said it would regrew hair in the front and temple regions were fin and minoxidil usually do nothing. It's depressing, but there are moments when I think I could make a lot of money if it weren't for my scruples.

Sure, a lot of what you wrote is true. But people getting excited about a possible treatment is ALWAYS going to happen. Follicept and Devon, in particular, have been incredibly forthright about what they are doing and progress of trials. If they ever say they need community donations to reformulate something or whatever then we can raise a red flag. Until then any talk about Follicept being disreputable is unfounded and unhelpful.

The scientific premise they are working off of will either work this iteration, need reformulation or won't work at all. They don't know, we don't know, so let's all hang back and be positive until there is any development at all.

[Thinning@30]

I feel like it's worth revisiting this thread in light of all the current hype over Follicept. There does seem to be a curious psychological pheonomenon going on in that thread with the people getting all excited over it--at least the ones that aren't shills. I can't put my finger on it, but it's like a combination of naivete, scientific illiteracy, and wishful thinking. I wonder if a lot of the people getting excited are young or at least new to hair loss and haven't experienced the cycle of hype and disappointment that inevitably happens with these types of products.

It's funny how people said the exact same things about TRX2 that are now being said about Follicept: "a reputable university would never be attached in any way to a scam product," "PhD scientists wouldn't dare risk their reputation and professional standing by promoting a scam." It's also worth remembering how the folks behind TRX2 did some of the same things the Follicept people are doing now. Bold claims of efficacy before there has even been an internal trial based on nothing more than speculation. After all, TRX2 was "The treatment finally arrived!" They even said it would regrew hair in the front and temple regions were fin and minoxidil usually do nothing. It's depressing, but there are moments when I think I could make a lot of money if it weren't for my scruples.

[bornthisway]

How much are they paying you? JK You can attribute this decrease in fall out specifically to HR23+?

[KMoney]

Hi James, thanks for your advice.
I've been using HR23+ and it's decreased the loss of my hairs which I can only be pleased about. I'm not expecting miracles, but it's definitely steadied things.
I've tried minoxidil and it didn't do anything for me. I was on it for 9 months or so. Waste of time. What's nizoral?

[Swooping]

Those hypes are annoying as fck. I'd like to think of myself as a reasonably rational thinker when it comes to future treatments regarding hair loss, but when there are threads being made that get 300k+ views in a time span of a mere 2 months, it gets hard to keep a proper focus on what's actually good/legit and what isn't.

It can be hard sometimes yes. Anyway a full blown cure or whatever is still a far way to go dude. Hair transplant industry is actually growing at a pretty rapid rate. Go figure.

[Trouse5858]

Those hypes are annoying as fck. I'd like to think of myself as a reasonably rational thinker when it comes to future treatments regarding hair loss, but when there are threads being made that get 300k+ views in a time span of a mere 2 months, it gets hard to keep a proper focus on what's actually good/legit and what isn't.

Bingo. But people subconsciously (or maybe consciously as well, I don't know) want to put their eggs in the basket of the quickest fix. Hearing that the nearest treatment is another 5 years off is incredibly depressing and so people do mental gymnastics to appease their expectations that they'll wake up tomorrow and there will be a groundbreaking "cure" underway. The genuine timelines of a bringing a drug to market through the scientific process is also a bit elusive to a non-scientist like myself. When you read about these new studies, they're encouraging and discouraging at the same time. Encouraging on one hand because these brilliant teams are constantly learning more about the triggers of MPB and coming up with solutions.

The natural downside to that is "Sh*t!! We still don't even fully comprehend how this happens in the body! How can we possibly expect to cure it??"

[Illusion]

It's interesting eh how they never change. Always wrong, yet a new hype and they all jump on it again ... Anyway at least he had the guts to admit he was wrong, 9 out of 10 ppl wont do that when they finally understand that Follicept was just another failure too ... And that they will come.

Those hypes are annoying as fck. I'd like to think of myself as a reasonably rational thinker when it comes to future treatments regarding hair loss, but when there are threads being made that get 300k+ views in a time span of a mere 2 months, it gets hard to keep a proper focus on what's actually good/legit and what isn't.