Where are the phase IIb results for Bimatoprost?

[It's2014ComeOnAlready]

Great, but where's the results? I was really, really excited about Bim, and I was pretty sure it would be available around 2016, but there's no good reason for them to hold back the results. The idea that they are somehow keeping the results in reserve to boost the stock price is nonsense - that's not how the market works. Individual investors don't drive markets, analysts and equity traders do, and they have more or less open access to corporate data. On the Q2 earnings call, analysts will want to know how Bim did, period. The only reason NOT to announce is because they aren't going forward with it, which is what they will have to explain on the next earnings call. Otherwise, they'd let the market know now.

Sorry, it didn't work out as planned.

So you're saying that because they haven't released results within 2 months of the trial, when last time they took even longer to do so means they dropped the program. OK lol. And if you're claiming to know a lot about how the stock market works, and that analysts have open access - just look at the stock price. Was sold at $219 in Jan after the merger, now is at $240.22 and continues to climb. Everywhere you read, it's a definite BUY according to analysts. So sorry, but you're wrong. This was the easy negativity I was talking about. Believing in a drug because of it's actual effectiveness, then because we don't get the news when we want it turns in to a bust.

Your mood about these things is any way the wind blows.

[RobertSe]

Great, but where's the results? I was really, really excited about Bim, and I was pretty sure it would be available around 2016, but there's no good reason for them to hold back the results. The idea that they are somehow keeping the results in reserve to boost the stock price is nonsense - that's not how the market works. Individual investors don't drive markets, analysts and equity traders do, and they have more or less open access to corporate data. On the Q2 earnings call, analysts will want to know how Bim did, period. The only reason NOT to announce is because they aren't going forward with it, which is what they will have to explain on the next earnings call. Otherwise, they'd let the market know now.

Sorry, it didn't work out as planned.

you talk out of your a**, results often take a long time to be realised (up to a 1 year)

[Occulus]

So you're saying that because they haven't released results within 2 months of the trial, when last time they took even longer to do so means they dropped the program. OK lol. And if you're claiming to know a lot about how the stock market works, and that analysts have open access - just look at the stock price. Was sold at $219 in Jan after the merger, now is at $240.22 and continues to climb. Everywhere you read, it's a definite BUY according to analysts. So sorry, but you're wrong. This was the easy negativity I was talking about. Believing in a drug because of it's actual effectiveness, then because we don't get the news when we want it turns in to a bust.

Your mood about these things is any way the wind blows.

Then why weren't the results discussed at the q1 call? And why do you think the $20 delta has anything to do with the bim trial?

[BiqqieSmalls]

And why do you think the $20 delta has anything to do with the bim trial?

The $20 delta doesn't have anything to do with the bim trial. It corresponds to the merger.

[It's2014ComeOnAlready]

Then why weren't the results discussed at the q1 call? And why do you think the $20 delta has anything to do with the bim trial?

There could be 1,000 different reasons why not. I don't proclaim to know why. Just because trial information hasn't yet been presented doesn't mean it has failed. You are convinced that is the ONE explanation. It could be that they don't have to, or that because they don't yet have a product ready to market (since phase 2b success = phase 3 and launch). You have cherry-picked your argument based on a small portion of the information I have presented. Read the new patent, there is loads of positive information regarding a new composition for bimatoprost, filed and published after the phase 2A trial.

I also have not attributed the stock price increase to the bim trial. YOU proclaimed to know a lot about how the stock market works and that analysts and equity traders have open access to corporate data. Results of the trial do have an effect on stock price, as past history has shown. If using this argument about analysts and traders, and the stock price continues to climb and is widely regarded as a definite buy (since they have insider knowledge, according to you), it could possibly be attributed to success in pipeline R&D. Everything I've read about the merger has highlighted the unique products in Allergan's ophthalmology and aesthetic pipeline. Bimatoprost falls under aesthetics, and you should have a look what they have in their pipeline for aesthetics. Let me know if you find a bigger moneymaker than a very effective, side-effect free, topical hair loss solution.

I'm not overly concerned about stock price in regard to success of bim, but this has been the only thing you have clung to. The only issue this drug has had during trials has been concentration and delivery to the scalp. Read the patent, they cover this issue and explain how the issue is fixed. Bottom line: this drug works in the hair pathway, they increased the concentration 1000% and enhanced chemical penetration.

Sorry you don't get that positive reinforcement treat of news, so that you can feel good about it. I suggest you do more research, and let that decide how you feel about how it will do.

[cocacola]

Analysts don't have anymore information than what u find in earnings calls, press releases or md&a. Otherwise its a material non public information that if you trade on, its a crime.

[Occulus]

Analysts don't have anymore information than what u find in earnings calls, press releases or md&a. Otherwise its a material non public information that if you trade on, its a crime.

LOL - but they do, and they do. Don't be naive. There's no positive reason not to discuss the results. I'll give them until Q2 to say something. If they don't by then, it's DOA.

[It's2014ComeOnAlready]

Analysts don't have anymore information than what u find in earnings calls, press releases or md&a. Otherwise its a material non public information that if you trade on, its a crime.

Ah so, Occulus' argument doesn't have a leg to stand on.

[Joker]

Occulus,

When did the Q1 earnings call take place? The Actavis website doesn't have it posted (http://ir.actavis.com/phoenix.zhtml?...l-reportsOther). Historically, Actavis has discussed Q1 results in late April, early May. Allergan does the same, and I wouldn't expect them to have a separate call post-merger.

Does it go without saying that bimatoprost - or any other particular drug currently in development - must be discussed on the earnings call? What if no analyst asks a question about the bimatoprost program? Is the company obligated to volunteer all information related to every clinical trial on each earnings call? I, too, worry about bimatoprost (I worry about everything in this industry), but I don't get the definitiveness of your thinking on this particular issue.

Some additional info - verbatim from the Actavis Q4 2014 call (which took place in February of 2015):

"So today's meeting just to keep in perspective will be Actavis standalone, this will be an Actavis standalone financials, Actavis standalone business review and Actavis standalone R&D pipeline review." - CEO Brent Saunders (http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/call-tran...#ixzz3WXPmPCEM) So clearly there would be no discussion of bimatoprost there.

And then - verbatim from Allergan Q4 2014 call (which also took place in February of 2015):

"As a result of the November 17th announced acquisition of the company by Actavis, Allergan will not be providing earnings or sales guidance for fiscal year 2015." (http://agn.client.shareholder.com/re...leaseID=894782) So Allergan hadn't completed their study until January 2015, and thus wouldn't have been able to discuss the results on any past earnings call. Nor will they be holding any future earnings calls.

TL;DR - I do not know what information Occulus is referring to. This doesn't necessarily mean he is wrong. But we shouldn't jump to any conclusions as yet.

[sdsurfin]

Everything you've posted here is complete speculation. Mine hasn't been, if you've been following the thread. From their patent for bimatoprost for AGA, published Oct. 2014 (after phase 2a was finished) -

"The preferred bimatoprost concentration range is about 2-4%, more preferably about 2.5-3.5%. These preferred bimatoprost ranges allow a surprisingly good balance to be achieved between the wanted pharmacologic effects of the composition and any unwanted side-effects. It had previously been thought that bimatoprost compositions for stimulating growth of hair should have a much lower bimatoprost concentration; this has now surprisingly been found not to be the case."

Also, as far as releasing news goes, the merger was announced in Jan. and completed last month. In January, the stock was sold at $219 a share, now it's at $240.22 and keeps climbing. Everywhere you read, it says that the stock is a definite buy, meaning it's going to continue to rise. If you read that article about bim in 2011, it says that when they announced news of the trials (which were positive) the stocked jumped $10 a share, and this was during the thick of the recession. So there is good reason, to not release info if they don't yet have anything to market to us, and the stock continues to climb on its own.

With regard to trials, you are also wrong, and did not read the article I posted. They had recruited 300 men and 300 women for phase 2, so that when they were ready, they could immediately jump into phase 3. It also states that phase 3 AND release would take a year. NOT 3-4 years. You're pulling that out of nowhere.

The fact is that the drug works on the hair pathway. Their only issue has been proper concentration and delivery to the scalp. If you read that patent, they seem to have solved that problem. To clarify, everything that I've posted hasn't been speculation, and based on actual evidence. Yeah, I cannot prove they are in phase 3, but every source I have posted shatters the argument of the naysayers.

When Kythera acquired setipiprant, I posted very positively about the news and provided good reasons to be optimistic. You doubted, and questioned, and thought it was my job to convince you. Now you are all about pgd2 inhibitors. Just look at what I posted and see if that doesn't change your mind. If it does, great. If not, that's fine too. Just don't try and dampen the mood by neglecting the evidence that I have put together by saying it's all speculation. You are wrong in doing so, and just continue to bang whatever drum no matter what.

I'm not speculating about anything. I have no idea whether it was a success or not. But I'm sure as hell not convinced by any of your "evidence". You may be right, but none of what you just said is based on concrete facts. Just because they said they will jump into phase three does not mean they do not have to recruit more patients or announce the trial. these are standard procedures which have not been initiated. Also, there is really no reason to withhold good results. it just doesn't happen. like occulus said, analysts ARE privy to information whether you think they are or not. It is certainly possible that they were successful but are working out further kinks or regrouping for a phase three, or that they have not failed, but it is much more likely that they did not have impressive results and are withholding info because they do not want to harm the recent surge in their stock. We will see. Until they release more info neither of us have any concrete evidence that it went either badly or well.

As far as PGD2 blockers, I am certain that they play a role, and am optimistic about possibilities, but I also have no idea whether they will provide good therapeutic benefit. it really still remains to be seen. I'm not trying to be a debbie downer, but you are definitely being optimistic without considering other very real, and more probable possibilities.

[It's2014ComeOnAlready]

I'm not speculating about anything. I have no idea whether it was a success or not. But I'm sure as hell not convinced by any of your "evidence". You may be right, but none of what you just said is based on concrete facts. Just because they said they will jump into phase three does not mean they do not have to recruit more patients or announce the trial. these are standard procedures which have not been initiated. Also, there is really no reason to withhold good results. it just doesn't happen. like occulus said, analysts ARE privy to information whether you think they are or not. It is certainly possible that they were successful but are working out further kinks or regrouping for a phase three, or that they have not failed, but it is much more likely that they did not have impressive results and are withholding info because they do not want to harm the recent surge in their stock. We will see. Until they release more info neither of us have any concrete evidence that it went either badly or well.

As far as PGD2 blockers, I am certain that they play a role, and am optimistic about possibilities, but I also have no idea whether they will provide good therapeutic benefit. it really still remains to be seen. I'm not trying to be a debbie downer, but you are definitely being optimistic without considering other very real, and more probable possibilities.

I appreciate your point of view, and I agree to a certain extent. I've bolded what I disagree with because there are some questions I have about those statements. In that article I posted, it was said by the chief of R&D that at the first positive sign, they'd immediately gear up for a phase 3, be it recruiting, whatever they need to do in order to get it ready immediately. I think a good reason to not release info is, if it is positive, then release that news when it is time to do so. Part of what Actavis wanted with this acquisition is to become a top pharmaceutical company, and not just one that produces generic drugs. It's been mentioned a lot in articles that one of the big reasons this merger went through was because Actavis also wanted what Allergan had as existing drugs (mostly botox, and new uses for botox) and what is in its pipeline. If successful, bimatoprost would be HUGE. Probably over a billion annually, as stated by the company. Analysts don't have complete transparent open-access to company files, that would implicate A LOT of insider trading and would ultimately be bad for companies. Even though, I can see how the urge would be great.

The news could be good or bad, but I'm on the side of good because we already know this drug works for hair. As I've said before, their only issues were related to concentration and penetration enhancement to the scalp. That patent I posted, pretty much solves that issue. I think the negative perspective comes from, that as people waiting for new treatments and such, we've seen a lot of failures. That's where the only shred of negativity comes from, and has nothing to do with the drug itself, the company, or the facts surrounding the trials.

Like I've stated earlier, phase 2b success has the implication of a phase 3 and a launch. It would pretty much be letting the cat out of the bag. Being quiet, while continuing the study (it says "this study is ongoing but not recruiting participants" on clinicaltrials.gov) ensures that when it is time to announce success, you actually HAVE a product to market. It makes no sense to announce results now, the stock is doing fine on its own. Yes, normally good news is released at the time it occurs, but given what's happened with this company recently, it actually makes sense to hold back.

As the saying goes: "no news is good news."

[Keki]

can someone tell me what's the difference between bim and ketobim, seems extremely cheap the second one, it's useless?

[Keith]

A close relative of mine who holds a high position in the pharmaceutical sector confirmed to me that Allergan/Actavis are NOT continuing with the development of Bimatoprost... That is a real bummer if you ask me... Hope he is not right.

[Hairismylife]

A close relative of mine who holds a high position in the pharmaceutical sector confirmed to me that Allergan/Actavis are NOT continuing with the development of Bimatoprost... That is a real bummer if you ask me... Hope he is not right.

This is the worst news of the year.

[Trouse5858]

God dammit