Allergan Corproate Takeover Bad for Bimatoprost

[rdawg]

http://online.wsj.com/articles/john-...2?mod=yahoo_hs

The hostile takeover is really gathering speed now. Things look very bad for Allergan. The company that is going to take it over is very much known for removing all research and development money. So we can all pretty much kiss Bimatoprost for hair goodbye.

For all those that will insist this is not a big deal because it never would have worked, two absolute facts remain: a small scale study showed that the underlying chemicals regrew hair in humans in a laboratory setting and Allergan reported that their original formula regrew some hair in their original clinical trial. People post all kinds of unconfirmed stuff on here about regrowth, but there is very little actual scientific evidence that any other treatment currently known has regrown hair.

Even if this thing never panned out, it would have been very, very valuable to follow it through and make sure that the limits of its capabilities were totally explored. And they may have further mapped the underlying process of hair loss and hair growth. Remember that Luis Garza gave total credit to Allergan's Latisse product for causing researchers to understand the importance of PGD2.

In my opinion, this is a very sad day for the hair loss community.

Wow this is a crazy assumption, I see where you're coming from but you have to look at the other side too!!

Why would they drop a huge product like this when a lower dose version is already doing very well on the market for a slightly different issue? This product will bring them 10X the profit.

[beetee]

You are right that there are assumptions involved, and any of these could be wrong. However, I have been following this closely and know a fair amount about the players involved. The assumptions I'm making are educated and justified, but we'll have to see how things play out. The issue is that this company is 100% about making money for themselves and shareholders in the short term. There is much work left to be done on Bimatoprost for hair, and that is the exact type of work that Valeant is all about doing away with.

In the meantime, perhaps you should read this article closely and start educating yourselves about the types of people that we're talking about and their proven track record:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/bid-for-allergan-puts-valeants-research-and-development-cuts-under-scrutiny-1402443053

Also, read this:

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/06/02/do-drug-companies-make-drugs-or-money/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

Once you read these, I'd like to hear your potentially revised responses now that you are a little better informed.

[beetee]

For those without the patience to read the articles (although you should), here are some relevant pull out quotes from the NY Times piece:

"Allergan spends 17 percent of its revenue on research and development, compared to Valeant’s 3 percent."

"In case there is any question about Valeant’s slash-and-burn strategy, here is Mr. Pearson in his own words from last week on the value of research and development: 'There has been lots and lots of reports, independent reports, talking about how R.&D. on average is no longer productive. I think most people accept that. So it is begging for a new model, and that is hopefully what we have come up with.'"

[beetee]

From the Wall Street Journal article:

"[After Valeant took over Medicis], Most of the research-and-development staff at Medicis headquarters in Scottsdale, Ariz., got the black envelopes [meaning they were fired], according to people familiar with the matter. Soon, most of the roughly 30 research projects under way were also dropped, according to the people and physicians who conducted trials for Medicis.

Such cuts are a cornerstone of the hard-nosed strategy pursued by Valeant: buy up companies, shed most of their research operations and make money selling their products."


If you read nothing else, read the following two quotes:

"Some Wall Street analysts, credit-rating firms and industry officials question whether Valeant can sustain its heady growth without finding new products through research. Many pharmaceutical companies are making deals to acquire new medicines. But their deals usually bring along scientists, research programs and potential drugs farther out in the pipeline that, while an expensive investment, present long-term opportunities for the development of new products and markets. Valeant, in contrast, targets cash-generating products, providing a quick boost to revenue, and cuts assets requiring more investment."

"Before the deal closed, Valeant reviewed Medicis's research pipeline, according to people familiar with the discussions. Medicis officials recommended Valeant finish about half its roughly 30 projects because they were so promising.

But Valeant officials made clear they weren't interested in anything that wasn't on the cusp of near-certain approval, the people said."

[sascha]

So we are basically screwed again? Awesome....

[beetee]

Btw rdawg, my annoyed tone was not directed at you. I enjoy your posts and it's of course fine to question my conclusion, which you did in a respectful and considerate way, unlike a lot of people on here, which I appreciate. But if you cared about or were interested in the future of this potential treatment, do look into valeant some more if you haven't done so yet, because honestly, this is not a good development.

What I'm saying is that if valeant walks in and the cure's on the table, of course they'll bring it to market. But I think it's much more likely that bimatiprost for hair is at a stage that will require more work (remember, this current clinical trial is only the first of two planned Stage 2's), in which case they have all but said they will walk away from projects like that, because all they care about is short term profits, not medium or long term.

[sascha]

Isn´t bimatoprost a couple of months away of ending phase 2 completely? Around november 2014 or january 2015?
I don´t know this: Can they quit a phase 2 study before its completion, if another company started the trial?
Considering for phase 2 around 4 month and for phase 3 around 6 to 12 month. Do you think this is really a medium or long term goal.
Sounds more like short term goal to me.
S*** really hoped to try this out, but well, thats life I guess

[beetee]

Once valeant owns allergan they can do whatever they want, including canceling trials. That's exactly what they did when they bought the company discussed in the Wall Street journal article quotes. As I mentioned, allergan was going to run two different Phase 2's, and this one is the first, so that would be another year or so before Phase 3. Trust me, I am disappointed as hell in this development. If valeant sees something extremely promising, perhaps they will continue with it, but all I can say is it would be extremely out of character. No matter what, they will not continue allergan's committed approach to it.

Positive notes? I believe other companies are experimenting with pge2 to treat HL. But I imagine they are further behind by a ways. Also, allergan could pull a rabbit out of a hat, especially if they finally bought another company, but as these arbitragers and raiders buy more allergan stock it seems much much harder to fight off the takeover.

[Swooping]

Did you not expect this? Let me tell you a little secret. If something isn't going to outperform minoxidil by a FAIR margin, it isn't going to hit the market. Bimatoprost was marginally beneficial to say the least, i know people who hyper dosed it 20x the strength. Nothing much came out of it. This doesn't come to me at a surprise at all. Just like histogen which is thrown in the bin right now. They ain't going to launch the treatment to help you, but they are going to launch a treatment which is going to deliver them money, simple as that. Remember that.

[sascha]

Okay thanks guys, I got it.
All I can say: this kind of stuff really wants me to have a cure, so all this greedy businessman can die in a hole.

[beetee]

Swooping, allergan themselves said they wouldn't bring anything to market unless it was a lot better than minox. Thats not the issue. That's great you knew someone that poured a bunch on their scalp. What allergan had been experimenting with is how to use certain chemicals to get the active chemicals to soak through the thick scalp skin. This is what the whole thing centers around: how to get the chemicals to the follicles. Just dumping large doses on you scalp does not show what would happen if more of the active chemical actually got where it needed to. Adding different delivery vehicles is the only thing that would do that. No amount of self experimenting would reveal how effective bimatiprost teamed with the right delivery vehicle would be. Unless you and your friend were somehow smarter, more knowledgeable, and more experienced than all the PhD's they had working on this, and you somehow didn't need the extremely expensive equipment required to do these things.

[Swooping]

Swooping, allergan themselves said they wouldn't bring anything to market unless it was a lot better than minox. Thats not the issue. That's great you knew someone that poured a bunch on their scalp. What allergan had been experimenting with is how to use certain chemicals to get the active chemicals to soak through the thick scalp skin. This is what the whole thing centers around: how to get the chemicals to the follicles. Just dumping large doses on you scalp does not show what would happen if more of the active chemical actually got where it needed to. Adding different delivery vehicles is the only thing that would do that. No amount of self experimenting would reveal how effective bimatiprost teamed with the right delivery vehicle would be. Unless you and your friend were somehow smarter, more knowledgeable, and more experienced than all the PhD's they had working on this, and you somehow didn't need the extremely expensive equipment required to do these things.

What makes you think that bimatoprost a small molecule compound wouldn't pass the skin? Considering that;

- Bimatoprost has a mol. weight of 412
- The "500" dalton rule (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...09003165.x/pdf)
- All other pharmeutical compounds in the world with a mol weight under 500 pass the skin. Hmm coincidence?
- Several (if not tens) of in vitro and in vivo skin permeation tests attest this. (I can link some if you want)

So now your telling me that all these guys that researched and specifically even study for this (transdermal drug delivery, permeation tests etc) are rendered useless by your anecdotal report? You can read them there are TONS of studies on this.

[beetee]

No, I wasn't talking about actual research just your anecdotal story that you offered as proof of what you were saying.

Why do you think allergan was spending millions on ongoing testing if it is already obvious nothing would come of it?

[Swooping]

No, I wasn't talking about actual research just your anecdotal story that you offered as proof of what you were saying.

Why do you think allergan was spending millions on ongoing testing if it is already obvious nothing would come of it?

I don't know. But i can tell you that tons of drugs fail in the 2nd phase. This can have several reasons; effectiveness, safety and the most important one, money ROI; return on investment) etc. Btw i don't know for sure but I think latanoprost is actually more potent as bimatoprost? It does grow hair it seems;

http://shop.farmaciasantantonio.net/upload/latanoprost.pdf

[beetee]

Ken washenik of NYU at American academy of dermatology conference in march:

On bimatoprost for hair: "It's proving a little more difficult to get the medicine to penetrate the scalp, but studies are underway."