Replicel timeline

[crafter]

[QUOTE=hellouser;156720]Oh great... way to open up a can of worms. This is going to be a fun thread.

haha - just being realistic about it because they said 3 year trial starts next year, so even if they decide to release it in asia after phase 2 is complete then they need to sell the technology then doctors will need to be trained on how to use it, ten advertise it and so on - that all takes time. So no idea why they said it could be out in asia in 2015.

I also remember all the hope over intercytex and Aderans, and we know how they went.

[rdawg]

So basically what I'm saying is don't worry too much about whether this gets released soon. If it got released right now it would be pretty useless - they need to improve it significantly. If I was them, I'd go back to working on the science, and come up with a replicel 2.0 (assuming they can't change things up half way through trials) aimed at being a full hair multiplication solution; designer hair, just like Aderans originally planned. Then they can focus on competing with the other potential full cures that won't be available until 2020ish. Because right now, they'll be competing with HSC which performs much better, and they'll be on the level of Nigams in terms of efficacy I'd bet (maybe even worse by release, if he improves it).

I'm interested in the announcement spencer mentioned way back on the show regarding them, they apparently had or have news that's very positive.

those first results were poor, but they've gotten a massive investment since then, which in my eyes must mean they've gotten an improved result at least to some extent.

[Thinning87]

It's not a massive investment. It's a fourth of what Follica had, actually less if we count all rounds of venture capital financing. But yeah maybe they're on to something.

I wish Follica would tell us something.... Honestly the more we wait, the higher the chance is that we will have to wait for stem cell based approaches which will take 20 years at least.

[James7]

yeah or 2019 at the earliest, if they go straight through phase 3 in a year and get to market straight away.

Also I meant to add, you know where this puts it at? 5 years away! Yes, the magical '5 years away' lol :-)

[Pate]

Replicel's problem IMO is the same Aderans, Intercytex and all the others - that when hair stem cells are multiplied in vitro, they lose their inductive capabilities.

Jahoda knew this before Replicel even started, but I guess they had to find it out themselves! Replicel have mentioned before that they have been working with the Paul Ehrlich Institute to try and refine their replication procedure, but I don't think that'll do much good because they're still not addressing the root cause. So I don't foresee this new trial really cracking it, either. Maybe a small improvement on the last one.

The good news is Jahoda's recent partial success at restoring inductive capabilities through 3D cultures. If his team can get that working properly, then Replicel have already done the ground work, designed the protocols and the injector etc. They just need to modify their replication procedure to use Jahoda's method, and they should see much improved success at a minimum, if not a full cure.

I think that is actually going to be the solution we have all been waiting for so long, eventually. Fulfilling the promise of the early 2000s when they thought this stuff would work with simple 2D replication - which it should have, in theory. Unfortunately the hair cells had other ideas...

Maybe 10 years away? Haha.

[hellouser]

The good news is Jahoda's recent partial success at restoring inductive capabilities through 3D cultures. If his team can get that working properly, then Replicel have already done the ground work, designed the protocols and the injector etc. They just need to modify their replication procedure to use Jahoda's method, and they should see much improved success at a minimum, if not a full cure.

I read this while listening to the ending credits in the new Superman - Man of Steel movie... it sounded pretty damn epic reading that... a glimmer of 'hope'

[Sogeking]

I read this while listening to the ending credits in the new Superman - Man of Steel movie... it sounded pretty damn epic reading that... a glimmer of 'hope'

"Ideal of Hope", I listen to that a lot. Awesome music .

@PAte
Yup just as you said, their new trial won't rise in effectiveness. I am still kind of perplexed as to why did Shiseido invest it them.

[hellouser]

Replicel's problem IMO is the same Aderans, Intercytex and all the others - that when hair stem cells are multiplied in vitro, they lose their inductive capabilities.

Jahoda knew this before Replicel even started, but I guess they had to find it out themselves! Replicel have mentioned before that they have been working with the Paul Ehrlich Institute to try and refine their replication procedure, but I don't think that'll do much good because they're still not addressing the root cause. So I don't foresee this new trial really cracking it, either. Maybe a small improvement on the last one.

The good news is Jahoda's recent partial success at restoring inductive capabilities through 3D cultures. If his team can get that working properly, then Replicel have already done the ground work, designed the protocols and the injector etc. They just need to modify their replication procedure to use Jahoda's method, and they should see much improved success at a minimum, if not a full cure.

I think that is actually going to be the solution we have all been waiting for so long, eventually. Fulfilling the promise of the early 2000s when they thought this stuff would work with simple 2D replication - which it should have, in theory. Unfortunately the hair cells had other ideas...

Maybe 10 years away? Haha.

Any more info on this? Has Replicel switched from 2D to 3D culturing?

[rhysmorgan]

how can it possibly be out in 2015 if they are start "3 year trials" starting next year?

http://www.replicel.com/hair-regener...osed-phase-ii/

Japan has been in a process of deregulation regarding regenerative medicine. They may be anticipating a legalisation path other than the ones currently available.

[rhysmorgan]

From what I understand, Replicel's formula is fairly standard hair cloning/multiplication. Take cells from the back of the head, culture, inject into bald and thinning scalp with growth factors. But it only yields something like 6% regrowth. Even Dr. Nigam could probably do as well as that..

So basically what I'm saying is don't worry too much about whether this gets released soon. If it got released right now it would be pretty useless - they need to improve it significantly. If I was them, I'd go back to working on the science, and come up with a replicel 2.0 (assuming they can't change things up half way through trials) aimed at being a full hair multiplication solution; designer hair, just like Aderans originally planned. Then they can focus on competing with the other potential full cures that won't be available until 2020ish. Because right now, they'll be competing with HSC which performs much better, and they'll be on the level of Nigams in terms of efficacy I'd bet (maybe even worse by release, if he improves it).

Screw it, I'll take 6% for a £1000.

[hellouser]

Screw it, I'll take 6% for a £1000.

It may have been a dosing issue. The number of cells that formed into follicles may have low percentages, hence repeat treatments being necessary. Let's not forget that the results aren't as fast as we'd like;

- cells need to be injected
- cells need to form follicles
- follicles need to grow hair
- hair grows very slow
- follicles also have cycles of growth/resting stages

It's not far fetched that it would be several months before you saw results. I remember mentioning a while back that newborn babies don't have all the hairs a teenage youth would have, and the hair forms over the course of several months. I imagine the results from Replicel wouldn't be far off *if* their method really does induce formation of new follicles.

[joachim]

i would love to see those treatment with multiple injections. if we would have 6% every half year or so, while maintaining existing hair, then the treatment is going to be huge. the problem is, investors and others don't see the potential of these low percentages at all. they want to sell a treatment for 20.000 bucks and achieve very good efficacy immediately. otherwise they think the product will fail on the market. but if they still would bring it out, offer it for let's say 1000 bucks per session, and force the customer to come on a regular basis until he is satisfied with the results, it would still be better than everything on the market and probably a kind of cure for many people.

[hellouser]

i would love to see those treatment with multiple injections. if we would have 6% every half year or so, while maintaining existing hair, then the treatment is going to be huge. the problem is, investors and others don't see the potential of these low percentages at all. they want to sell a treatment for 20.000 bucks and achieve very good efficacy immediately. otherwise they think the product will fail on the market. but if they still would bring it out, offer it for let's say 1000 bucks per session, and force the customer to come on a regular basis until he is satisfied with the results, it would still be better than everything on the market and probably a kind of cure for many people.

Actually, having customers be forced to go for repeat sessions will put the investors at ease as well. Think of it this way;

1 customer will HAVE to go keep paying for treatment. Just like pharmaceuticals... they dont care to cure anything, they just want your money for as long as possible, which basically means they want to get you hooked on their pills for LIFE which in turn means; your giving them money FOREVER.

A 1-shot treatment would be kind of a downer for investors... but they'd have to make sure the prices would be VERY high for a single treatment that cured the whole problem.

In fact, I don't see Replicel injecting so many cells into their patients ANYWAY. Why? Because they will WANT to have you hooked on their treatment to continue their revenue stream. If the treatment is dose dependant, I'd bet on it that they will purposely give you smaller doses to squeeze out as much cash out of you as possible for as long as possible.

[yeahyeahyeah]

Actually, having customers be forced to go for repeat sessions will put the investors at ease as well. Think of it this way;

1 customer will HAVE to go keep paying for treatment. Just like pharmaceuticals... they dont care to cure anything, they just want your money for as long as possible, which basically means they want to get you hooked on their pills for LIFE which in turn means; your giving them money FOREVER.

A 1-shot treatment would be kind of a downer for investors... but they'd have to make sure the prices would be VERY high for a single treatment that cured the whole problem.

In fact, I don't see Replicel injecting so many cells into their patients ANYWAY. Why? Because they will WANT to have you hooked on their treatment to continue their revenue stream. If the treatment is dose dependant, I'd bet on it that they will purposely give you smaller doses to squeeze out as much cash out of you as possible for as long as possible.

You seem to forget that supply will always be high, there will always be balding people

[hellouser]

You seem to forget that supply will always be high, there will always be balding people

Sure but that won't change their tactics. They're a business, there's not much sympathy from the CEOs for balding men... they really only care about turning a profit.