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I agree that people shouldn't presume anything, but they've been a textbook case of "show me the money" for a long while now. I was struck by just how subdued Washenik's vision had become. He was no longer even discussing their product outside of hair transplants. It was "you'll get your transplant, and your injections to help thicken it."
Anything is still possible, but the reality is that this is what happens with the majority of companies. They essentially get stuck in an eternal phase 2 where it becomes painfully clear they don't really have anything of substantial value.Comment
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That is NOT correct. Washenik ten years ago stated that the first gen of HM would only be good enough to thicken up hair transplants. I can post the links if you want.Comment
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Well, that was sort of my point. It was actually more than ten years ago! Back then it was "well right away it won't be enough by itself. Once we refine it, it will be." Back in 2001 there was a lot of "sure in the next couple of years you can thicken things up but it will be a solid 5 years before you can grow a full head of hair" talk floating around. I posted a link from 2001 on another thread.
As time went on he became less cavalier in his long term claims and seemed almost entirely focused on the attitude of "well, it will help your Bosley hair transplant."
I understand where you are coming from but there was definitely a narrowing of the goals as typical in this industry.Comment
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Personally, all I expected was a treatment that thickened up miniaturized hairs and didn't necessarily grow a lawn so to speak. I don't think there's strong evidence of neogenesis - the way Follica is doing, but rather revitalization of existing follicles.Comment
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The amount of failures when it comes to finding a treatment good enough to give you some visible cosmetic growth is staggering.
I remember the thread there is still hope from 2009, when I joined this forum. It was about Histogen who was pushing forward despite the fall of Intercytex.
If Histogen and Aderans fail to whom are we gonna turn are heads to. This time even hope is going away.
Although I never saw much promise from Histogen or Aderans.
I realized how vicious this is when Replicel who had about 50% regrowth of hair in mice had really low results in their Phase 1 trial results in humans.
In the foreseeable future only thing that could help us if it is proven and improved upon is donor regeneration.
I think I should accept my plight. Although I do think the universe has a sick sense of humor. I can bet that when I turn 60 I will be able to get my hair back, however by then it won't really matter...Comment
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Honestly ARI may be downsizing because they just need to take one of their treatments through phase 3...STOP SPECULATING FOR THE LOVE OF GOD. Wait until we have confirmation before we cross them off.Comment
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I wish someone could answer all of these questions...Maybe Spencer will make contact and let us all know in the next show. It's hard to be optimistic towards Aderans through this, but let's not sit here and come to any conclusion until we receive official word.
Spencer, can you please contact Histogen and Aderans both for us and see what is going on with each of them? We are all wondering this.Comment
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These were my thoughts when I found out and tried to figure out another reason for this:
- You don't downsize your lab when planning to go to Phase 3! You expand. That's because instead of treating 200 patients at a given time, you are treating over 3000 simultaneously.
- You don't auction your entire lab equipment at a fraction of the cost when going into Phase 3 but rather build on it.
- If you are a multi-million dollar company like Aderans and your R&D department failed to come up with a better solution, you don't publicise it or boast about it but instead quietly shut down the program and move on with selling your wigs and transplants! (The show must go on)
I also have a feeling Histogen has HALTED their HSC program! They exhausted most of their capital to win the court battle and with this gloomy economic climate find it hard to find investors. They may fold at any point even though they have a decent growth stimulant on their hands! (Remember Neosh)
FOLLICA's recent news is also nothing but Hype! Everything they mentioned about wound healing & FGF-9 was conducted in mice. We have no way of knowing if this method will lead to follicular neogenesis in humans. After all these years, we should know better than falling for these lame tactics.
At least till now, REPLICEL has also NOT shown anything worth boasting about either. And to top it all up, their next update will be January 2015.
Bimatoprost also could NOT achieve results at least similar to Minoxidil, even though their formula was 9 times stronger than the eye drop formulation. They are now planning to increase the dose even further! I can assure you such high doses will NOT be without sides particularly permanent skin pigmentation and vertigo.
CB-03-01 was discovered to have anti-androgenic properties in early 2000! We have been waiting for over 14 years for the trials to begin in humans. This may come to market eventually but it won't be till 2018 the earliest! And that's if Cosmo Pharmaceuticals doesn't merge with another company by then and the new company doesn't shelf the product like they did with NEOSH.
I am not sure how to feel anymore! We've been dealt another major blow today. Even the 5 year mark doesn't look very promising. If Tsuji lab doesn't start their Phase I trial by 2015 then we will not see anything materialising from them till 2023-2025 as well!Comment
- You don't downsize your lab when planning to go to Phase 3! You expand. That's because instead of treating 200 patients at a given time, you are treating over 3000 simultaneously.
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Oh dear...everybody is turing very pessimistic again. This forum is insane, no doubt in a few weeks there will be some more positive news, then some negative news...and so on, and so forth.Comment
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