Perspective on the future

[appleguy]

Hey everyone.

I'm new to all this and worrying about losing my hair is fairly recent for me at 32. I have been doing a great deal of research into it since I found out, not to mention the fact that I am already massively interested in science.

There are numerous scientific websites I check every day to see what new innovations are coming up but one thing is clear.
Things are accelerating. The time to be excited is NOW and we should thank God about that.

We have gone from blindly stumbling into discoveries to breaking down biotech in an engineering like fashion.

I like to think of myself as an amateur futurist and follow the work of other futurists. Specifically: Ray Kurzweil and Aubrey De Grey.

Both these men are working on life extension and a point in science called the Singularity. (A point in time where technological innovation timescales are instanteous).

Their predictions come from not just a random number they come across but by accuratley looking at the rate of technological development over the last millenium to right now.

Most people don't realise how fast things are moving because you look outside your window and apart from slightly snazzier cars everything looks much the same as it did 30 years ago.
But monumental things have happened and are happening right now.

There has been a huge game changer in the 2003 with the sequencing of the human Genome. That came out with a great deal of fanfare but then nothing.
Because it's only just now we are figuring out that code and the timescales involved are amazing when you consider certain things.

The human Genome project took 13 years to complete at a cost of a billion dollars.

Now it can be done in a couple of months at a cost of 5 figures

In five years it will be a few days at a cost of a few hundred dollars.

Information technology is what is tranforming medicine and it is getting faster and faster.
In ten years we will know 1000 times more what we know now.
20 years it will be a million times more.

Genetic engineering, cellular biology and stem cell research is happening in leaps and bounds now.
Instead of it being highly experimental and confined to the great minds of the world it doesn't cost very much to set up a stem cell lab and experiment.

With so many people in the world working on it, much more than can work on developing new drugs it is very cheap science to manipulate and get fantastic results.
And the good news is that all results from them are cumulative; People who work on stem cells for paralysis, brain disordersand numerous other applications assist each other with new ways of manipulating stem cells which others can use when results are released.
Breakthroughs are getting faster and faster for instance in the last two years we have found out two massive things which are very important.
How to do gene therapy without using viruses to alter genes which could lead to cancer. This can be now done relatively easily in vitro (a massive game changer, genes can now be easily turned on or off)
Also how to manipulate IPC Stem cells into other stells and very soon Progenitor cells which is imminent now at the speed this amazing science is accelerating.

We have gone from not knowing much to injecting damaged organs, muscles, whatever with IPC stem cells which repair it to the state as though no damage had ever happened.

And again...it's ACCELERATING.

It's not doubling year by year, it's geometric progression of development 1x2x4x8x16x32.

Futurists like Ray Kurzweil believe by analyzing current rates of development will mean in 15 years time medicine will be completely unrecognizable.
Life extension is some 25 years away by his and De Gray standards (If of course ever at all) but fifteen years is not far away and we will see the benefits in the next five to ten years.

Since the nineties at least hairloss cures have always been five years away and some people say that trend will continue.
But this was based on the premise that some sort of drug will be involved that someone will 'fluke' upon as older drugs did happen such as Propecia which was meant for another purpose entirely.

Since information tech entered medicine, things are off the scale and with Moores law not only sustaining but has been shrunk leading some people to believe a human level of intelligent AI will come not in 2050 as first thought but in 2029 (Terminator timeframes!).

All these are the push behind medicine and make it easier to bring things to market.
Stem cells will cure baldness no doubt they have a two fold benefit:

1. They will enable a human scalp to naturally grow it's own hair by introducing some kind of triggering growth

2. Marketable applications are shorter than an internal drug because the FDA do not need to approve as nothing more than your own cells are being reintroduced into your system.

Stem cells are the new playground and over the next five years computer clock speeds will increase and more incredible discovery's will happen. Over the next five years we will know more about cells than have been discovered in the last 20 years.

There is already talk of many people working on this, hair restoration clinics etc but put that into perspective.
Most clinics don't make their own drugs as the costs are too high but most clinics either are already or will in the next few years have access to stem cell development tech which is amazing really, such simplistic medicine with such massive far reaching goals in the hands of relatively small startup companies.
With so many people refining this work it is imminent VERY imminent.

And for all the naysayers who believe such cures will be sat on in favour of surgery think about that for a second.
As I mentioned before stem cell research is cumulative across numerous fields, it all helps to push the boundaries.
If one clinic comes up with a cure, they are rich, beyond rich. Would you as an owner sit on that to keep other colleagues doing what they always do? Course not and why?
Because if you sit on it your compepition may not and you lost the golden goose.
No one in their right mind would do this as if one person sat on the solution someone else will duplicate that in a very short space of time because as I mentioned all results are cumulative.

People need to stop looking at medicine as though it will chug along in much the way it always has.
Things have altered forever and we will start seeing miracles very soon. We are with many other technologies. Who would have though we would ever see invisibility cloaking materials in our lifetime and they are right around the corner.
We aren't just developing new stuff we are changing forever the way that stuff is developed.

As I mentioned before I am new to this so I am not sure what has come before but it seems to me someone would sort of maybe come across a drug to peddle which turn out to be useless.
Now look at the starup firms workign in stem cell tech focusing on hairloss.
When i researched it there were at least 8 not to mention those that are working under the radar or universities who tend not to announce anythign until they have a success of some sort.

For more info on futurists check out Ray Kurzweil and Aubrey De Grey. Even if you aren't interested in life extension they explain where the biotech is going and how fast the rate is.

It is very heartwarming to know that instead of treating the symptoms we are are now about to treat the source.