Replicel

[Maradona]

Total disaster, never expected such REALLY bad results and this is an overdose .

Time to get on fin, **** ! I'm scared.

[lpenergy]

While I am hoping for the best from Replicel, I have to say that I am out as an investor until I see something that provides very positive results or a similar indication. I sold half of my position upon the announcement of the delay and the other half this morning. I got in at a decent price, so a relatively small loss isn’t that bad given what could have happened.

If the results were considered to be strong (>20%), they would have raised additional funds after the results, which would have resulted in a lower shareholder stock dilution. Because they are simply using DSC cells, I do not see how they can “tweak” a formula to produce better results.

I am looking forward to any interviews, and wish the best for Replicel. If something changes, I may get back on board with buying their stock, but not at this point. It is going to be long slow slog as far as an investment.

At this point, it seems that we have to hope for any of the following:

1) The site location on the temples was sub-optimal, other spots would perform better
2) 6 months was not enough time
3) Overdosing actually hurt the results,
4) Results are compoundable
5) The treatment is more effective at stopping/slowing hair loss instead of regrowth
6) It is an augmenting treatment option
So, David Hall needs to explain why they expect future results to improve. Why did they get the high percentage hair regrowth in animals and not humans?

[kaandereli]

http://www.replicel.com/wp-content/uploads/Implanted-SCID-Mice_PONGED-655x426.png

50% growth on mice, 6% for human.it is damn frustrating

[BaldinLikeBaldwin]

Believe both Replicel and the hair loss community are disappointed by these results. Oh, well..

[Kirby_]

You have to also remember that Replicel has not figured out 'dosing range' yet - this phase was primarily for safety, when they explore what dose works best I am sure we will see far better results.

Isn't the Phase I dose an overdose? (Correct me if I'm wrong, somebody!)

[lpenergy]

Isn't the Phase I dose an overdose? (Correct me if I'm wrong, somebody!)

Yes, if they overdosed the mice and got 3% results, wheras if they gave the proper lower dosage and that resulted in +50%, then it is significant. Otherwise, we don't have a good reason for the variance.

[sausage]

They say their results were positive, if its just 6% growth then in the bigger picture how is that positive?

Do they think it will grow loads of hair with in increased dose?

[oracle]

Isn't the Phase I dose an overdose? (Correct me if I'm wrong, somebody!)

I think it is a range of high to low doses. What results did the high doses show?
I'd guess there where 4 or 5 levels in the whole range. Subjects at the high end of the range may show better results. With only 19 subjects, there's not much significance to be drawn on from these results in terms of efficacy.

[WillhasWill]

Isn't the Phase I dose an overdose? (Correct me if I'm wrong, somebody!)

Where have Replicel said they overdosed on this trial? How can they overdose when they do not know the optimal dosage yet?

No dosages have been defined, they are only in phase 1 of clinical trials. Are people confusing an overdose with dose ranges?

[tonypizza]

Why don't they try injecting human hairs onto immunologically neutralized mice, then transplanting the hairs onto human scalps.

If everyone keeps trying the same thing it'll be decades before they finally realize the human scalp is only good at fostering growth of hair follicles at a young age. Something changes as we get older, and the environment is not good for growth of new follicles. That's why these treatments work like magic on mice, but not humans.

Farm the follicles on mice or pigs, and transplant them

[PinotQ]

Ipenergy, Good list......I would like to add that I hope Spencer does not lob a softball on the pennystock-ad-gate issue. Not that David Hall will divulge anything of note but it would be nice to get an explanation of the thought process behind their campaign and, more importantly, I would sure like to read his demeanor and tone of voice when he responds. One more possible interesting question: I wonder what would happen if they injected acell at the time they re-inject the DSC cells. Could acell recruit a missing molecule or two that might make a difference?

[Follicle Death Row]

Horrible results. Almost insignificant statistically. And there was David Hall saying anything above 30% would be a massive success. Time to move on.

I like the lateral thinking of growing follicles on mice and transplanting them. Interesting. I'll take 100 mice please!

[Follicle Death Row]

How did they get funding for phase 2? Quite frankly they don't have results good enough to proceed to phase 2. I don't understand.

[The Alchemist]

As of now the results are:

12.5% increase in Vellus hair
3.2% increase in terminal hair

The fate of those 12.5% vellus will be very important. If they develop into terminal hairs over the next 6 months or so, then they might be on to something. And as IPenegry has noted, there is the possibility that these results could be compoundable. If that's the case, then this would be a good result. But, only if those vellus hairs grow to terminals.

Two things i had a question about before they even started the trial were: at what depth are they making these injections and how far can these cells migrate once injected?

Suppose these cells don't migrate from the site of injection very far, if at all? Suppose that the injection depth used in this protocol is not optimal?

If those two variables were not dialed in correctly for human scalp then it could explain their poor response.

Phase II is going to be an exploratory phase, much the same that Aderans went through. It has the potential to be a long time span. But, i sure as heck hope not.

[eqvist]

Follicle Death Row!!!!!!!!!! MAY YOU PLEASE LEAVE THE REPLICEL THREAD!!!!!!!?
There is a Replicel fail thread for you!