how bad is it and how bad will it get

[BaldBearded]

I am going to agree and take a wait and see attitude. You can get a bit creative with the hairstyle to cover the thinning spot. I would suggest NOT cutting it short... as it could make it more noticeable.

Check back in six months, a year... and then see what is going on, and decide.

[Louish]

I don't see any deterioration between the 2 periods but your crown is thinning.