Update on HSC

[Stocione]

1. the average series D is around $50M.... and that's not even for bio-medical companies which should need more money than your average company raising a series D... $18M = nobody wants to give us any money so we'll take anything we can get.... series D is for losers who couldnt go public by their series C


2. why would they need money for a public offering? If they had something worth anything, they'd just do a public offering. "Hi we need $18M so that we can then go raise more money from the public".


3. They'd have found a partner if they had anything worth anything... unlike follicept, histogen has been around (as a relatively large formal business organization) for like a decade.... yet no partners...



Of course we don't know if they are dead.... but there isn't much going on in their favor as far as I can see...

we're talking about the company who said they'd be available in asia in 2012....

i.e. swipe your credit card and get injected.... It's now half-way through 2015 and they are about as far away from having people swipe a card and get injected in asia as they were in 2008...

This isn't "we need funding, we hypothetically think we have something and need to try it"... this is "we've tried this, and it wasn't great, so we need more money to try again"

None of those 3 points are true. One, the average series D funding round is not 50 million dollars - and even if it were, it wouldn't be a meaningful data point. Series D funding rounds vary in size dramatically from company to company and market to market. If I had a sample size of two with data points of 1 and 100 the average if 50. See the point? Means are a very bad way to measure the mid point of many types of data sets.

The size of a round is based on the perceived value of the company and the board's willingness to give up equity to an outside party/parties. Histogen is unlikely to be valued particularly highly at the moment, so they simply cannot raise a gigantic round.

IPOs are expensive. Uber spent tons of money preparing for their IPO and you know what, it paid off.

Histogen may not have wanted a party but even if they did, they were dealing with a painful and significant lawsuit. Investors and partners may not have wanted to entangle themselves in what was already a risky proposition to begin with. It's really not an indication they don't have a potentially successful treatment.

It sounds to me like you haven't worked for a start up or tried to raise capital before. There's a lot that goes into it. Hope that helps.