An important from our friend Reflet

[Scientalk56]

I turned 32, and it is been long time I'm aware about baldness. My father was obsessed with his hairloss, blaming my grandpa genetics (Norwood 7 at 27yo).
He got his first hair transplant circa '96. I remember well, I was a teenager and he told me "don't worry, by the time you will be in the age of suffering from hairloss, science will have found the cure or set new standards. Scientists are currently working on a technic to clone hair. In 10 years it will be on the market for long time".

Well, that was 20 years ago, and what do we have today?

10 years later (2006), I searched on the Internet and indeed I found about Intercytex. Who remembers them? They had a so called revolutionnary product back then. Now the "product" disappeared from their on their catalog (I think they sold the assets).
In 2009, we had Histogen interviews clamining that they would be able to market their product in Asia in 2013, and the rest of the world should follow in 2015.
The same story happens over and over again, countless of others companies with “promising results”.
Phase II, Trial I, same old tune.. pffff.

I don’t mean to come off as a party pooper, and I’m not saying that the cure will NEVER be found. But who knows when: in 20 more years, 30, 40?

You have no idea how much I’d like to be wrong, but..
Constant frustrated hopes are painful to live with. Better to stay away and not think about these dream sellers whose first goal is to attract juicy investments.




My opinion (Scientalk56) : This is pretty much sums everything up - all the "Old" folks who has been following hairloss industry for years

[brocktherock]

I turned 32, and it is been long time I'm aware about baldness. My father was obsessed with his hairloss, blaming my grandpa genetics (Norwood 7 at 27yo).
He got his first hair transplant circa '96. I remember well, I was a teenager and he told me "don't worry, by the time you will be in the age of suffering from hairloss, science will have found the cure or set new standards. Scientists are currently working on a technic to clone hair. In 10 years it will be on the market for long time".

Well, that was 20 years ago, and what do we have today?

10 years later (2006), I searched on the Internet and indeed I found about Intercytex. Who remembers them? They had a so called revolutionnary product back then. Now the "product" disappeared from their on their catalog (I think they sold the assets).
In 2009, we had Histogen interviews clamining that they would be able to market their product in Asia in 2013, and the rest of the world should follow in 2015.
The same story happens over and over again, countless of others companies with “promising results”.
Phase II, Trial I, same old tune.. pffff.

I don’t mean to come off as a party pooper, and I’m not saying that the cure will NEVER be found. But who knows when: in 20 more years, 30, 40?

You have no idea how much I’d like to be wrong, but..
Constant frustrated hopes are painful to live with. Better to stay away and not think about these dream sellers whose first goal is to attract juicy investments.




My opinion (Scientalk56) : This is pretty much sums everything up - all the "Old" folks who has been following hairloss industry for years

We actually have several things in clinical trials now and that's just what we know about. There are ways to beat hair loss now if you catch it early and can afford a good HT. If you look at most of the HT's 5-10 years ago they weren't nearly as good as they are today. It is moving slow but there is a lot of progress. We knew that the regenerative approach was going to take years to gain momentum and now with Japan's new laws it's finally within reach, Shiseido is planning to commercialize in 2018 and is in zero danger of running out of funds. I don't know what to think about other drugs in the pipeline but who knows. Look at technology in 1996 and now, they might as well have lived in caves. We still have some waiting but there is good reason to have hope (not faith) in the next few years. We just learned about the difficulty they were having culturing cells a few years ago and now it seems they have it all but figured out and that's just the stuff we read about. We know they publish these discoveries way after the fact or not at all. Have hope, my friend.

[bigentries]

Shiseido is planning to commercialize in 2018 and is in zero danger of running out of funds

We could get the Aderans situation again

Aderans had a clear commercialization plan, and was in zero danger of running out of funds. They even bought Intercytex assets.

What happened? The thing didn't work and the main division stopped the funding

Replicel hasn't shown any evidence it works, and their phase I numbers were depressing. There is no solid guarantee they will ever be released

[NeedHairASAP]

We could get the Aderans situation again

Aderans had a clear commercialization plan, and was in zero danger of running out of funds. They even bought Intercytex assets.

What happened? The thing didn't work and the main division stopped the funding

Replicel hasn't shown any evidence it works, and their phase I numbers were depressing. There is no solid guarantee they will ever be released

I'm with bigentries. They've been around for 10 years and I haven't seen a single picture of anything worth anything.

[Slam1523]

We could get the Aderans situation again

Aderans had a clear commercialization plan, and was in zero danger of running out of funds. They even bought Intercytex assets.

What happened? The thing didn't work and the main division stopped the funding

Replicel hasn't shown any evidence it works, and their phase I numbers were depressing. There is no solid guarantee they will ever be released

I guess I don't understand... Why is it I have heard replicell has just under 20% regrowth, but then people say their results were depressing? Which is it? Did they get that regrowth, and if it was depressing results why are they still funded?

[brocktherock]

20% after six months from a single shot in the pilot study. They also stated that there is more that they haven't published for competitive reasons and they say there will be no need for repeat sessions because the results will be permanent. Now after they work out the dosage, if it still gave you 20% permanent regrowth then that would put 90% of use within reach of being cured with a HT. They still need to try repeat sessions and can now commercialize instead of blowing millions on a phase 3. If you really look at the details then its hard not to get excited.

[Hair Bear]

I guess I don't understand... Why is it I have heard replicell has just under 20% regrowth, but then people say their results were depressing? Which is it? Did they get that regrowth, and if it was depressing results why are they still funded?

I believe their results came in well short of even their own expectations at the time however they have since refined their approach. The battle to conquer this issue has intensified and as such there has been a wealth of knowledge which has been made available on a scientific level however there is still a level of secrecy to it all.

As a consumer we are still very much in 1996 as there is nothing commercially available which has super seeded what was available then. Its extremely disheartening however those are the cards we have been dealt.
I have learned not to take any notice of anyone giving any sort of time frame for release as its merely blind speculation upon our behalf and any researcher/scientist worth their salt will not put a time frame upon any of their work being finalised as its far too difficult to predict, granted one can be completely confident and assertive however in this day and age everyone seems to be keeping their cards close to their chest and revealing very little.

I think from now on if someone were to give a time frame I would ask for an exact breakdown on why they believe they will be able to release a cure in such a time space and the exact science behind their efforts because in all honesty no one should be making these types of claims and rather let the science do the talking.

Lets leave the 5-10 year nonsense to the stupid media outlets.

Btw I completely disagree that Hair loss can be defeated at this point in time, all you can hope to do is sustain your current norwood level for a set amount of time and even then its not for everyone regardless of financial situations.

That is the cold hard truth as I see it and the fact is there is more snake oil out on the market today than there ever was due to an influx of information being made available, pharma companies and charlatans have looked to capitalise on buzzwords and pseudo science.

[bigentries]

I guess I don't understand... Why is it I have heard replicell has just under 20% regrowth, but then people say their results were depressing? Which is it? Did they get that regrowth, and if it was depressing results why are they still funded?

You could ask the same thing about Intercytex, Aderans or Histogen. They went into phase II even with uncertainty.

Aderans in particular had the same pattern Replicel is repeating, they got heavily funded into phase II, there are even presentations about their commercialization plan

It's a gamble investors are willing to take

[FloydButterworth]

I guess I don't understand... Why is it I have heard replicell has just under 20% regrowth, but then people say their results were depressing? Which is it? Did they get that regrowth, and if it was depressing results why are they still funded?

Their result was considered bad because their terminal hair growth numbers (which is what counts cosmetically) were nowhere near 20%. They were significantly lower than 10%, closer to 5-6%, if i'm recalling correctly. The 20% number includes vellus hairs, which contribute nothing cosmetically. So, their numbers appear better than they actually were. Combine that with the fact that Replicel themselves spent much time talking and printing how they were bench marking against minoxidil/propecia (which upset quite a few, as expectations were higher than that) and then failed to get anywhere near that low standard they set for themselves and you have your explanation for why their results are viewed as depressing.

The stock price dropped rapidly from mid 2$ range down to around 0.50$ as a consequence.

It was all very anti-climactic after having spent (using their words) "10 years of research" building up to this trial. Personally, i'm a little concerned because after those results, they quickly turned their focus to tendon repair. Which was never on the agenda prior to this. It seems like something they came up with on the fly in a desperate attempt to extend their business life. Grasping at straws, if you will.

But, they did convince Shiseido to buy in, so who knows what they were able to show them. Maybe they tweaked their process, or something went wrong in the phase I/II trial and they identified it and are now able to get better results. Or, maybe Shiseido sees something here that they can exploit and use for marketing, not giving a damn about results. They could easily leverage 6% regrowth into a huge marketing campaign if they wanted. Especially in countries where there may not be as much regulation as would be encountered in North America.

Phase II will let us know the answers to those questions. I wish they'd hurry up and start it already. My hair's not waiting around for them...

[brocktherock]

Their result was considered bad because their terminal hair growth numbers (which is what counts cosmetically) were nowhere near 20%. They were significantly lower than 10%, closer to 5-6%, if i'm recalling correctly. The 20% number includes vellus hairs, which contribute nothing cosmetically. So, their numbers appear better than they actually were. Combine that with the fact that Replicel themselves spent much time talking and printing how they were bench marking against minoxidil/propecia (which upset quite a few, as expectations were higher than that) and then failed to get anywhere near that low standard they set for themselves and you have your explanation for why their results are viewed as depressing.

The stock price dropped rapidly from mid 2$ range down to around 0.50$ as a consequence.

It was all very anti-climactic after having spent (using their words) "10 years of research" building up to this trial. Personally, i'm a little concerned because after those results, they quickly turned their focus to tendon repair. Which was never on the agenda prior to this. It seems like something they came up with on the fly in a desperate attempt to extend their business life. Grasping at straws, if you will.

But, they did convince Shiseido to buy in, so who knows what they were able to show them. Maybe they tweaked their process, or something went wrong in the phase I/II trial and they identified it and are now able to get better results. Or, maybe Shiseido sees something here that they can exploit and use for marketing, not giving a damn about results. They could easily leverage 6% regrowth into a huge marketing campaign if they wanted. Especially in countries where there may not be as much regulation as would be encountered in North America.

Phase II will let us know the answers to those questions. I wish they'd hurry up and start it already. My hair's not waiting around for them...

The average of everyone's results were 5-6%. There were two people that reached 18 and 19% out of 16. However they are still trying 3 different dosages along with a second session. This is just the pilot study mind you. If their pilot study is better than finasteride then sign me the hell up, especially if it's permanent like they say.
We are not in 1996 just because that was the last product to be approved. We know way more than we did 2 to 5 years ago. Aderans was unfortunate but that doesn't mean in any way that replicel is the same.