Further Follicept civil conversation

[serenemoon]

It’s going to take far longer than a couple of months to verify any type of meaningful results and I disagree with your statement about Devon and his hairline. The slightest change in lighting or difference in camera position can make it appear that his hairline has either gotten better or worse. Any legitimate company would invest in accurate documentation methods, including third party densitometry, miniaturization mapping and use a clinical photo booth. The way they are presenting so far is amateurish at best.

I think your line of thinking is accurate if the improvement is minimal. But if it is genuinely dramatic as they expect it to be (and let's be honest, if it is not dramatic, why would anyone buy it when there are things such as Rogaine?) then I don't think they can really fool us in a "video" like that. I hope you get what I am trying to say. I do think that if the results are not dramatic, then the "fooling" tactics will work on some people. I am not saying this is definitely going to be the case, but let's say he grows a NW 0 then I don't see how any amount of lighting/camera position woud change our perception. I do see where you are coming from though. They will be doing trichoscans and all that good stuff in the official clinical trials.

[amadeus]

I see what you’re saying and agree with you. The thing is, legitimate companies tend to make every trial “official.” Time is money and every step of the process is of vital importance to demonstrating the success of the product. While it appears transparent to involve the public and hair loss forum members in the process, it would not happen in the real world of clinical study for various legal and ethical reasons.

I think your line of thinking is accurate if the improvement is minimal. But if it is genuinely dramatic as they expect it to be (and let's be honest, if it is not dramatic, why would anyone buy it when there are things such as Rogaine?) then I don't think they can really fool us in a "video" like that. I hope you get what I am trying to say. I do think that if the results are not dramatic, then the "fooling" tactics will work on some people. I am not saying this is definitely going to be the case, but let's say he grows a NW 0 then I don't see how any amount of lighting/camera position woud change our perception. I do see where you are coming from though. They will be doing trichoscans and all that good stuff in the official clinical trials.

[Arashi]

It’s going to take far longer than a couple of months to verify any type of meaningful results and I disagree with your statement about Devon and his hairline. The slightest change in lighting or difference in camera position can make it appear that his hairline has either gotten better or worse. Any legitimate company would invest in accurate documentation methods, including third party densitometry, miniaturization mapping and use a clinical photo booth. The way they are presenting so far is amateurish at best.

The guy didnt even want to shave his head, for crying out loud. "amaterish at best", that's giving them way too much credit.

[serenemoon]

I see what you’re saying and agree with you. The thing is, legitimate companies tend to make every trial “official.” Time is money and every step of the process is of vital importance to demonstrating the success of the product. While it appears transparent to involve the public and hair loss forum members in the process, it would not happen in the real world of clinical study for various legal and ethical reasons.

True, but the in house trial is precisely so that they know if spendng money on official trals would be worth it. They guys are new and don't have the kind of funding that big companies like UpJohn have access to, so they have to be careful before spending a ton of money on official trials (aka they have to make sure it will be worth it.) If those six in house guys grow a nice amount of hair, then I think they will feel confident in dumping money on the clinical trials. If not, back to square one to perfect the treatment. They are legit..just..trying to be careful I think, since they don't have massive amounts of money.

[serenemoon]

The guy didnt even want to shave his head, for crying out loud. "amaterish at best", that's giving them way too much credit.

I hear you about the head shave, but I am going to be watching that hair line very closely. I want them to go big and DRAMATIC. Or go home. And that hair line (if it is dramatic) will be obvious even without the big shave. For me to buy that product, I need to see a nice NW 0-1 hair line. Yup, my standards are very high this time around.

[Arashi]

True, but the in house trial is precisely so that they know if spendng money on official trals would be worth it. They guys are new and don't have the kind of funding that big companies like UpJohn have access to, so they have to be careful before spending a ton of money on official trials (aka they have to make sure it will be worth it.) If those six in house guys grow a nice amount of hair, then I think they will feel confident in dumping money on the clinical trials. If not, back to square one to perfect the treatment. They are legit..just..trying to be careful I think, since they don't have massive amounts of money.

Then why come to this forum ? If they're really legit and want to figure out if it works, then just do that: figure it out ! Why come here ? And then let's say they ARE serious about figuring out if it works, do you really think THE best way to do that is just put some stuff in hairy areas, without scans, without tattoos, with semi long hair ? The most positive scenario here is that they're amateurs without having any idea what they're doing.

[amadeus]

@ Arashi Shaving for this type of trial would be unnecessary. Patients in the original Propecia trials were not required to shave their heads. Results were measured using proper clinical hair evaluation methods and imagery. Asking Devon to save his head could only possibly confuse matters.

@serenmoon Don’t buy into the “we are a small company” stuff. All they would have to do is enlist a local hair transplant surgeon who has the proper equipment to do the measurements and take the proper images. There are several in Florida who are equipped to do this and would probably be delighted to take part in something like this.

[serenemoon]

@ Arashi Shaving for this type of trial would be unnecessary. Patients in the original Propecia trials were not required to shave their heads. Results were measured using proper clinical hair evaluation methods and imagery. Asking Devon to save his head could only possibly confuse matters.

@serenmoon Don’t buy into the “we are a small company” stuff. All they would have to do is enlist a local hair transplant surgeon who has the proper equipment to do the measurements and take the proper images. There are several in Florida who are equipped to do this and would probably be delighted to take part in something like this.

I see, well, we will see. At the end of the day, either it will work and we will be using it and growing hair, or we will be balding as usual. I am ready to handle it either way.

[Arashi]

@ Arashi Shaving for this type of trial would be unnecessary. Patients in the original Propecia trials were not required to shave their heads. Results were measured using proper clinical hair evaluation methods and imagery. Asking Devon to save his head could only possibly confuse matters.

That's interesting. I can see existing hairs covering most of the scalp, making it next to impossible to analyze the scalp. How did they solve that in the Propecia trial if they didnt shave ?

[amadeus]

That’s a good question. I think it was Delphi who said it best, when he said baldtruthtalk.com is the most influential hair loss forum in the world and that Devon came here to build relationships with its members and gain massive visibility. Look how members from the Spanish, French and German forums flocked here and began discussions on there forums once Devon started marketing here. I agree with you that if they really had something they would not have used this tactic.

Then why come to this forum ? If they're really legit and want to figure out if it works, then just do that: figure it out ! Why come here ? And then let's say they ARE serious about figuring out if it works, do you really think THE best way to do that is just put some stuff in hairy areas, without scans, without tattoos, with semi long hair ? The most positive scenario here is that they're amateurs without having any idea what they're doing.

[serenemoon]

Then why come to this forum ? If they're really legit and want to figure out if it works, then just do that: figure it out ! Why come here ? And then let's say they ARE serious about figuring out if it works, do you really think THE best way to do that is just put some stuff in hairy areas, without scans, without tattoos, with semi long hair ? The most positive scenario here is that they're amateurs without having any idea what they're doing.

Arashi, there at least two subjects that they are trying this on with SIGNIFICANT Balding. I am talking about men in their 60s with practically nothing on their heads.

[serenemoon]

That’s a good question. I think it was Delphi who said it best, when he said baldtruthtalk.com is the most influential hair loss forum in the world and that Devon came here to build relationships with its members and gain massive visibility. Look how members from the Spanish, French and German forums flocked here and began discussions on there forums once Devon started marketing here. I agree with you that if they really had something they would not have used this tactic.

I think it is smart. They just got chosen as top 50 start up companies. I think they are doing it exactly right. People are watching them even before they have something. They just have to prove tht it works now.

[Arashi]

I think it is smart. They just got chosen as top 50 start up companies. I think they are doing it exactly right. People are watching them even before they have something. They just have to prove tht it works now.

Well all I know is that if I wanted to make money on the most desperate and naive baldies out there, without having something that actually works, I would probably do everthing exactly like Devon did it. On the other hand, if I was part of a serious team, searching for a real hairloss solution, I wouldnt even think about coming to a hairloss forum. I'd focus on finding something that works and once I'd have it, I'd call every news agency in the world. But hey, that's just me.

We'll see who's right. But for now my prediction is just like amadeus said: they'll change some lighting in their photo's and with a bit longer hair, they wouldnt even need to use a concealer like Topik to make a huge difference in appearance. Then we'll have tons of threads here, forum members fighting all over again, people claiming it worked, others claiming it didnt. Well basically like we've ALWAYS seen before how this goes. Just think of vraf's photo's for a recent example.

It's hairloss forum history repeating itself all over again and again and again. And that's what we'll see for the next 10-20 years (maybe even longer) until we actually have something that works.

[serenemoon]

Well all I know is that if I wanted to make money on the most desperate and naive baldies out there, without having something that actually works, I would probably do everthing exactly like Devon did it. On the other hand, if I was part of a serious team, searching for a real hairloss solution, I wouldnt even think about coming to a hairloss forum. I'd focus on finding something that works and once I'd have it, I'd call every news agency in the world. But hey, that's just me.

We'll see who's right. But for now my prediction is just like amadeus said: they'll change some lighting in their photo's and with a bit longer hair, they wouldnt even need to use a concealer like Topik to make a huge difference in appearance. Then we'll have tons of threads here, forum members fighting all over again, people claiming it worked, others claiming it didnt. Well basically like we've ALWAYS seen before how this goes. Just think of vraf's photo's for a recent example.

It's hairloss forum history repeating itself all over again and again and again. And that's what we'll see for the next 10-20 years (maybe even longer) until we actually have something that works.

I wish we could like bet on this some way or the other lol. Bet on their legitimacy at least, that if they release a product, it will work, and that if the product does not work, they won't release it. If they are liars, I will post a video admitting that I was an idiot for believing them. If they are legit, you should do the same, haha. You are mixing up Devon and Dr. Hsu. Devon is the marketing/business guy. Dr. Hsu is the science guy. Have you seen him in the forums? That is because he is taking care of the science side.

And trust me man, once they have the results, they are going to scream about it from the rooftops. But what they have now is a customer base ready to go as soon as they are ready to release it.

[Helix]

I have to agree that it's all very strange.

What confuses me the most is their optimism and high expectations considering they only done research on mice.

Personally I don't think they are intentionally scamming us. More plausible explanation is that they really are amateurs in hair loss business and that they reacted overly optimistic to their initial mice study.

The other less plausible explanation is that they are not telling us everything (legal reasons maybe) and that they have more solid evidence that this will work.