Kythera Conference Call Tomorrow

[Swooping]

Yeah isn't the responder rate for minox actually like 30%?

Yeah it depends on the sulfotransferase enzyme. Some people basically lack this enzyme. Minoxidil can work extremely good in people who respond well. Sometimes people get crazy results with it. I saw that Allergan filed patents too for a combination of a bimatoprost & minoxidil solution. If it works synergystically then that would be damn potent though. Especially if you respond well to both of them.

[Trouse5858]

I don't think minox does shit and yet I use it twice a day like a chump because I'm afraid if I stop I'll just wake up and look like Bruce Willis overnight.

[Keki]

So any extract about the webcast? Nothing new or really usefull?

[KO1]

Key points:

- Kythera worked on this for two years with Cots, and trialed five DP2 antagonists, so they must have looked at OC, TM etc before settling on Seti.
- their initial fee was 1.5M, and expect to spend 10M over next two years.
-Leonard mentioned "prevention of hair loss" rather than reversal.
- the POC process will take 2 yrs.

[Joker]

There are a few very important points from the conference call that have not been discussed.

(1) POC will take place - and I am quoting directly from the webcast - "over the next two years." This is distinctly different from a Phase 2 POC process that takes two years to complete. Even in a best-case-scenario (say, if the trial started tomorrow and lasted between 6 months and 1 year), data and information from the trial would still become available "over the next two years." This is nothing to be disappointed about. It appears as though they are moving as fast as is practicable in a highly regulated industry.
(2) Speaking of the starting date of the trial, the company representatives repeatedly stated that the trial would commence in "late 2015 or early 2016." Somehow, the "late 2015" portion of these statements has been ignored by members of this thread. Again, this is nothing to be disappointed about. Purchasing a novel compound and trialing that compound in humans within the same year it was purchased is certainly quick progress.
(3) It was stated - no less than two times by two different company representatives - that Kythera is considering and is intent on pursuing avenues to expedite the approval process of Kyth-105. This means that there is at least some possibility that the process of commercialization will move faster than even the very favorable timelines heretofore presented. They stated that they may devote additional resources to this project if additional resources (combined with the science itself and the authority of relevant regulatory bodies) ultimately enable them to move more quickly.
(4) This is designed to be a "hair loss prevention" treatment. It will be administered orally.
(5) They understand the size of the market they are hoping to serve and are well acquainted with the failings of current treatments.

Let's be careful with our blunt and overly pessimistic reductions of the facts. No one is perfectly satisfied with this process, and we all need to treat every potential new treatment with a great deal of caution, but we certainly shouldn't depress our emotions over objectively positive news. Hang in there.

[Tenma]

Thanks for the info Joker.

If they are right about this drug being prevention only i dont think it will ever reach the market unless it proves completely devoid of side effects and reaches a very high percentage of effectiveness long term, something like 90% of patients keeping all their hair.

We already have good prevention options but the more the merrier

[FearTheLoss]

I wouldn't say drugs that can effect someones sexual health and cognitive health are good prevention options for a cosmetic issue.

[Tenma]

I wouldn't say drugs that can effect someones sexual health and cognitive health are good prevention options for a cosmetic issue.

There are good long term dut and fin studies showing a low incidence of sides, something like 8% i think.

Like i said, i want this compound to succeed but they will have to prove very solid long term if their selling point is prevention

[Swooping]

There are a few very important points from the conference call that have not been discussed.

(1) POC will take place - and I am quoting directly from the webcast - "over the next two years." This is distinctly different from a Phase 2 POC process that takes two years to complete. Even in a best-case-scenario (say, if the trial started tomorrow and lasted between 6 months and 1 year), data and information from the trial would still become available "over the next two years." This is nothing to be disappointed about. It appears as though they are moving as fast as is practicable in a highly regulated industry.
(2) Speaking of the starting date of the trial, the company representatives repeatedly stated that the trial would commence in "late 2015 or early 2016." Somehow, the "late 2015" portion of these statements has been ignored by members of this thread. Again, this is nothing to be disappointed about. Purchasing a novel compound and trialing that compound in humans within the same year it was purchased is certainly quick progress.
(3) It was stated - no less than two times by two different company representatives - that Kythera is considering and is intent on pursuing avenues to expedite the approval process of Kyth-105. This means that there is at least some possibility that the process of commercialization will move faster than even the very favorable timelines heretofore presented. They stated that they may devote additional resources to this project if additional resources (combined with the science itself and the authority of relevant regulatory bodies) ultimately enable them to move more quickly.
(4) This is designed to be a "hair loss prevention" treatment. It will be administered orally.
(5) They understand the size of the market they are hoping to serve and are well acquainted with the failings of current treatments.

Let's be careful with our blunt and overly pessimistic reductions of the facts. No one is perfectly satisfied with this process, and we all need to treat every potential new treatment with a great deal of caution, but we certainly shouldn't depress our emotions over objectively positive news. Hang in there.

Thanks for the information.

[hellouser]

There are good long term dut and fin studies showing a low incidence of sides, something like 8% i think.

Like i said, i want this compound to succeed but they will have to prove very solid long term if their selling point is prevention

It's likely that it will provide some regrowth, perhaps lots with some wounding/dermarolling.

[It's2014ComeOnAlready]

I wouldn't say drugs that can effect someones sexual health and cognitive health are good prevention options for a cosmetic issue.

True, also the people who tout it as a "miracle" can only do so, because so far, it's the only thing that really works. That's not a miracle, that's just your only option right now.

I wouldn't be on this forum if bim was in the market right now. Could cut my fin dose and frequency way down, and maintain with something else. The fact that it's 2015 and it's the only thing that really works, is god damn silly.

[burtandernie]

I thought this might work better then just prevention because CB will be out in a few years and its hard for me to believe that CB wont prevent MPB. If you combined fin and CB you might not ever lose hair again so what will this do better than those in terms of prevention? It just seems odd to release this and CB when both do almost the same thing and do it very effectively assuming CB actually works out.