I knew you'd be coming out of the woodwork, Joker!
1) That's completely open to interpretation. I know she wasn't giving secret hints; I never suggested she was. What I took from her answers, was an employee of a company being as helpful and gracious to a shareholder as possible. It's doubtful that an employee would lie to a shareholder to get him off the phone. So, I took her at her word - the issue of bimatoprost is complex. You've also completely disregarded the fact that many other parties have access to mass production of this particular drug, and there have been some recent legal battles between Allergan and these companies. The issue would be complex if they were on the verge of producing a drug that's already in the hands of others.
2) There's no evidence that the program has been decelerated.
3) Nobody expects them to release failing results through press release, I know that. We're expecting results through traditional channels. The final data collection for primary outcome measure was completed nearly 10 months ago. They still can't tell shareholders?
4) Bimatoprost is not a proprietary technology. Many companies can legally produce this drug. Being a shareholder isn't necessarily easy, since you have to have the money to invest in the first place (and at over $200 a share!). Shareholders haven't been given immediate access to information about this trial, Allergan knew the outcome nearly 10 months ago.
5) We do know some things about the development about bimatoprost - the science behind it, the fact that in a new patent they stated the optimal concentration range for safety and efficacy (and included a penetration enhancer in a new formula), and that it was previously thought that the concentration should be much lower.
As for ICX and Aderans: yea those failed, but they weren't great to begin with. Bimatoprost actually works reasonably well at 100X less then what they were testing in 2b. Histogen has had delays, but isn't necessarily dead. Follica is actually still alive - if you look on grantome.com, Cotsarelis has a grant that lasts through 2018 to research follicular neogenesis through his wound healing technique. It's just going to take more time. Also, his work and funding with Kythera proves that if he's able to further that technology, they could be the company to bring it to fruition.
By the way, I'm not assuming anything about the function or efficacy of bimatoprost. It works, I use it, I've seen results. The question is whether or not it's a product that's worth it for them to produce. Just because others have failed doesn't mean the next to come will fail as well, that's very flawed thinking.
1) That's completely open to interpretation. I know she wasn't giving secret hints; I never suggested she was. What I took from her answers, was an employee of a company being as helpful and gracious to a shareholder as possible. It's doubtful that an employee would lie to a shareholder to get him off the phone. So, I took her at her word - the issue of bimatoprost is complex. You've also completely disregarded the fact that many other parties have access to mass production of this particular drug, and there have been some recent legal battles between Allergan and these companies. The issue would be complex if they were on the verge of producing a drug that's already in the hands of others.
2) There's no evidence that the program has been decelerated.
3) Nobody expects them to release failing results through press release, I know that. We're expecting results through traditional channels. The final data collection for primary outcome measure was completed nearly 10 months ago. They still can't tell shareholders?
4) Bimatoprost is not a proprietary technology. Many companies can legally produce this drug. Being a shareholder isn't necessarily easy, since you have to have the money to invest in the first place (and at over $200 a share!). Shareholders haven't been given immediate access to information about this trial, Allergan knew the outcome nearly 10 months ago.
5) We do know some things about the development about bimatoprost - the science behind it, the fact that in a new patent they stated the optimal concentration range for safety and efficacy (and included a penetration enhancer in a new formula), and that it was previously thought that the concentration should be much lower.
As for ICX and Aderans: yea those failed, but they weren't great to begin with. Bimatoprost actually works reasonably well at 100X less then what they were testing in 2b. Histogen has had delays, but isn't necessarily dead. Follica is actually still alive - if you look on grantome.com, Cotsarelis has a grant that lasts through 2018 to research follicular neogenesis through his wound healing technique. It's just going to take more time. Also, his work and funding with Kythera proves that if he's able to further that technology, they could be the company to bring it to fruition.
By the way, I'm not assuming anything about the function or efficacy of bimatoprost. It works, I use it, I've seen results. The question is whether or not it's a product that's worth it for them to produce. Just because others have failed doesn't mean the next to come will fail as well, that's very flawed thinking.
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