It is unlikely RepliCel will ever exist on a regular exchange.
It is far more likely to be bought out.
If I had to take a reasonable guess, it will be bought out for something like $1 billion which would result in about a 10x return at current prices.
"don't pull such a number out of your ass"
I'm not.
$1B would be a reasonable buyout figure, if not low. Why? Lets play some number games:
We'll hold steady at 50M outstanding shares.
Lets also imagine it costs $8000 for treatment.
The first year there are 10,000 who pony it up. This is probably low, very low
Thats revenue of $80M. Lets imagine the operating margin is 20%, that leaves $16M as income available to share holders. At 50M shares, thats an Earning Per Share of $0.32
Being a biotech growth (ha!) stock, it would be reasonable to expect a Price to Earnings ratio in the range of at least 40 (if not way higher but lets not go crazy)
This would translate to a share price of $12.80. With 50M shares outstanding, that equates to a market cap of $640M.
Therefore it is not unreasonable that the company jumps to being valued at something like $500M when its announced its all good and will start being available.
Considering a buyout of a biotech growth stock is usually at least double what 'the market' has priced the company at, I would imagine that a buyout of RepliCel would be in the $25/share range, or approximately $1.25B
In other words, equating to approximately 10x return an investment at todays price of $2.50.
Keep in mind I'm making up numbers for cost of treatment, those doing it, the operating margin and PE ratio but in my opinion they are well within reason.
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