will Replicel really work in 2018!!!

[xyz123]

@xyz123: If that information about cure from Shiseido was false and just based on misunderstanding, Replicel wouldn't spread it on facebook and twitter.

I'm not saying that there was a misunderstanding. I think both companies hope they have a cure, but - at least to my knowledge - neither company has actually shown any data to suggest that they have anything that remotely resembles a cure. They both want to promote their product - so if a news outlet says - "this looks great, it could be a cure" - they're not going to object. But at the same time - neither Shiseido nor Replicel responded by saying - "absolutely - we have the cure and it will be ready in 2018/2021". Shiseido said nothing. And Replicel effectively said - "well, we believe our product works - but to what extent - we'll have to see"...

I want a cure as bad as anyone else - and I want to be an optimist. But I think it's crazy that some people are completely convinced it will be here in 2018 just because a duo named Master Blaster said so. Needless to say, I'm sure the hype and promise around Aderans was just as great 5 years ago - and we all know how that turned out...

If this is truly a cure - we won't have to wait until 2018 to hear the results. We all know that if this therapy gives study participants a full head of hair similar to the JAK inhibitors for areata, miraculous before and after pictures will be posted all over news outlets as soon as the patients come back for follow-up. If - on the other hand - the results are modest at best (ie. 10% regrowth after 1 year), then we'll be waiting until 2018 before we hear anything and after all of the hype, they'll spin the product as a safer alternative to finasteride with similar regrowth potential and unclear long term maintenance efficacy... I really hope it's not the latter, but the Phase 1 results suggest otherwise...

[mcarpenter089]

Although I am as desperate for a cure as anyone else on this forum - I'm not even sure Shiseido has actually stated that they'll have a cure in 2018. The article that everyone quotes: (http://en.rocketnews24.com/2015/07/0...arket-by-2018/) doesn't actually have any direct quotations from Shiseido. It's written by two people that collectively refer to themselves as Master Blaster and, for all we know, Master Blaster heard that Shiseido was going to be starting hair loss trials later on this year, could potentially bring the treatment to market in 2018 - and decided to hail this as a cure.

Does anyone have a direct quotation from Shiseido saying that they'll have a cure in 2018? To my knowledge, Shiseido didn't even react to this article.

If a cure comes out in Japan in 2018, make no mistake about it - I'll be flying there (however many times it takes) and will pay (whatever the price) for however many injections are necessary to give me back a full head of hair. Hair loss f.cking sucks...

I would love to believe that Replicel is going to be the cure - but honestly - I think that's a huge stretch based on their Phase 1 data:

http://replicel.com/wp-content/uploa...s-Nov-2012.pdf

The average increase in density at injected sites was 6.1%. So in a given area - if a normal density is say - 200 hairs - and you have 100 hairs - then replicel is giving you 6 more hairs. That's pretty underwhelming. And I know Phase 1 was for safety and they'll be increasing the dose and number of injections in Phase 2 - and they also may have improved their technology in the intervening years - but it's hard to believe that's going to be enough for the cure... I mean - 3 of 16 individuals lost hair with Replicel - so if increasing the dose is going to amplify results - does that mean these 3 people will just get worse??

I'm fairly certain Replicel knows they're not the cure. After the article from Master Blaster, they went out of their way to effectively say - "yeah - um - we're not guaranteeing any of this... in theory it's definitely possible, but...". Right now all Replicel is claiming is that they are optimistic that their current treatment will be an effective form of maintenance - but even that claim - aside from it theoretically making sense - has NO human (? any) data to back it up.

With regards to differences between Replicel's current treatment and the treatment that Shiseido plans to offer in 2018 - again - I don't think anyone actually knows for certain.

As everyone knows, Replicel released two videos in May that featured Shiseido discussing hair loss research. The first video discussed Replicel's RCH-01 technology. At the end of the first video, they explicitly state that the second video relates to ongoing research involving iPS cells for hair regeneration - which is SEPARATE from Replicel's technology.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKRwlNuDMU0

The second video features Takashi Tsuji discussing his research, followed by Manabu Ohyama talking about iPS cells. It appears that Ohyama works with Shiseido, but I think Tsuji still works at Tokyo University.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-p0Hvrx093I

Neither Tsuji's work nor Ohyama's work is ready for human trials. So it's hard to believe that Shiseido will be able to incorporate their technology into a product that will be ready for 2018.

Could we have a cure by 2020? Anything is possible - the JAK inhibitors for alopecia areata seemingly came out of nowhere and changed the game.

Could the same happen for us? Maybe - let's f.cking hope so...

It will work in 2018. You just need to stop being so negative and actually believe for once in your life!!!!

[inbrugge]

great posts xyz. thanks for giving some much needed perspective.

It will work in 2018. You just need to stop being so negative and actually believe for once in your life!!!!

...i'm sorry but believing is not gonna change anything. he's not being negative, he's merely stating facts. it's likely that replicell will be available in 2018-19 in Japan.

But there is no proof showing that it will be have amazing results. Not even Replicell has made any statement like that. He's not saying it will not work. he's saying no one knows yet.

[xyz123]

Thanks for your effort and nice post , But do you really think if the normal density is 200 and we have 100 hairs , 6 more hairs in that area would help a lot? I don't think its too much .

Exactly: 100 -> 106 hairs = not cosmetically significant.

Phase 1 was for safety - and apparently they've improved their technology - so let's hope Phase 2 is much, much more impressive...

If they deliver, I will be more than happy to hand them over my money.

[xyz123]

[QUOTE= ...i'm sorry but believing is not gonna change anything. he's not being negative, he's merely stating facts. it's likely that replicell will be available in 2018-19 in Japan.

But there is no proof showing that it will be have amazing results. Not even Replicell has made any statement like that. He's not saying it will not work. he's saying no one knows yet. QUOTE]

Exactly.

[Xya23]

I believe that Replicel has stated in the past that their procedure would be comparitively priced with that of a hair transplant. Based on this I would think that they are planning on their procedure providing a comparitive amount of regrowth as well, as such a high price for something that does not give noticeable results wouldn't make sense.

Regardless, we won't know what Replicel or even Histogen for that matter is fully capable of until they are done with Phase 2 of clinical trials which probably won't be for another year or so. Until then everything is speculation but hopefully they do indeed manage to provide an effective treatment or "cure."

[inbrugge]

Regrowing your own hair, for me, is significantly superior to any transplant whether from donor area or lab cultured follices.

One is actually reversing the effects of AGA and rescuing your crippled follices one way or the other, while hair transplants just give up on those follicles and overtake them with DHT-resistent ones.

I understand this is more of a 'philosophical' difference, but I still prefer the former one. (Not to say that I would never cave in for a donor or culture transplant-type operation).

Plus, in more practical terms, no matter how good the operation, there is a level of naturalitt with your own hairline that just cannot be matched 100% with a transplant.

So, for me, even a 1-1.5 NW reversal with Replicel is huge! Couple that with halting further loss, I could definitely consider paying 4-5k$ aside from the travel costs.

But 6% increase is really nothing. If it's guaranteed to stop hair loss, without anh side effects, but with that level of regrowth, I'd lower my offering to aroun 2-2.5k$.

With NW0-7, I guess we can say 1 NW reversal is ~12-14% density. So, theoretically, they need double, quadruple their success if we wanna start talking about significant cosmetic reversal. And maybe that is somewhat feasible if we consider that Phase 1 was a low dose safety trial. Unless that 6% was a peak already and Phase 2 has been going terrible (which is unlikely consider Replicel's apparent momentum).

So we shall see

[sagat]

Regrowing your own hair, for me, is significantly superior to any transplant whether from donor area or lab cultured follices.

One is actually reversing the effects of AGA and rescuing your crippled follices one way or the other, while hair transplants just give up on those follicles and overtake them with DHT-resistent ones.

I understand this is more of a 'philosophical' difference, but I still prefer the former one. (Not to say that I would never cave in for a donor or culture transplant-type operation).

Plus, in more practical terms, no matter how good the operation, there is a level of naturalitt with your own hairline that just cannot be matched 100% with a transplant.

So, for me, even a 1-1.5 NW reversal with Replicel is huge! Couple that with halting further loss, I could definitely consider paying 4-5k$ aside from the travel costs.

But 6% increase is really nothing. If it's guaranteed to stop hair loss, without anh side effects, but with that level of regrowth, I'd lower my offering to aroun 2-2.5k$.

With NW0-7, I guess we can say 1 NW reversal is ~12-14% density. So, theoretically, they need double, quadruple their success if we wanna start talking about significant cosmetic reversal. And maybe that is somewhat feasible if we consider that Phase 1 was a low dose safety trial. Unless that 6% was a peak already and Phase 2 has been going terrible (which is unlikely consider Replicel's apparent momentum).

So we shall see

Agreed. Particularly with regrowing own hair rather than implanting. Sadly stopping balding won't do much for me since I've been Norwood 7 since 22 now 28. I don't know how they will objectively confirm that this will halt balding. Do they monitor hair miniaturisation over an extended period?

[xyz123]

Unless that 6% was a peak already and Phase 2 has been going terrible (which is unlikely consider Replicel's apparent momentum).

So we shall see

Phase 2 still hasn't started - both Shiseido in Japan and Replicel in Germany hope to start in late 2015...

[mcarpenter089]

Phase 2 still hasn't started - both Shiseido in Japan and Replicel in Germany hope to start in late 2015...

Am I the only one who realizes more injections means more hair??? You guys are acting like the results they had came from thousands of injections!!! I don't get why people just cant be optimistic. The cure is coming by the grace of god. We have all been through too much my brothers and now the lord will finally shield us with his righteous right hand hair for all. !!!!