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this should at least in theory be much better than Minoxidil.
What I was hoping for in the next few years was essentially an upgrade on our old tools, so say minoxidil gave you 10% growth or thickening, I expect bim to be 2-3X as strong, giving noticable growth, just based on what people got with such a low dose. As well it seems we should be getting an upgrade over fin and dut(finally) soon with all of this PGD2 stuff coming.
I never expected a full-blown cure now, but it seems like we may be getting some bridge products within the next 2-3 years. This is all just speculation btw.Comment
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I'd say with phase III startup minimum it should take another 9-12 months(recruiting usually takes a couple months+ minimum 6 month trial)
2 years is a solid guess, based on assessing final results, building up product etc. 3 years if they delay this year a bit, wont take any longer than that. The hype alone though knowing it's going to be released will get me through, anxiously waiting for results here, will suck if this gets canned, I've seen this as having tonnes of potential for a couple years now.Comment
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Dude, you're way off. It was stated by the Chief Medical Officer and the company that at the first sign of any positive results (meaning what they were expecting from a higher concentration) were seen in the phase 2b, they'd immediately gear up for a phase 3 and continue the study, following phase 2b. The intent is to get the drug out there as soon as possible. I'm not sure they need to recruit any more patients, also.
I'd show you where I got this info, but at the moment I'm a little tired. But I do guarantee you, I did read that.Comment
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phase III has to have hundreds more patients, phase II is usually only 40-60 patients, phase III's usually have 300-400, mass test.
I remember the investor call they had saying they werent happy with the results, not sure if they said they would jump right into Phase III, find that speech for me!Comment
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Here: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/allergan...the-hard-part/
Sorry, it wasn't the Chief Medical Officer, but the Chief of R&D, Scott Whitcup. As it states in the article 300 men and 300 women were recruited for the initial phase 2 study.
Also, it states that they'd do 2 phase 3 studies, but I wonder if that's necessary now, given the two phase 2's. However, it's stated in this article that if the Phase 3 study were to begin in late 2012, the drug would be available by 2013 or 2014. So the phase 3 studies would take approximately 1 year, according to the article. By this logic and timeline, the phase 2b study ended in late 2014, meaning it should become available in 2015 or 2016. BOOM. (lol)
Mentioned in the article as well that when they gave an update the last time, their stock jumped about $10 per share. This fits well into my take that the reason they have yet to release any results is because they want to ride out the positive effect of the merger. Then later, release more good news to keep the stock price rising steadily.Comment
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hmm I stand corrected very interesting, I think by two studies they probably mean one for women and one for men? or maybe two 6 month studies?
and the merger thing is a posibility, it was only a couple months ago, they could be waiting until the summer to release news. I have no idea! but It does sound like they can get into phase III right away without recruiting which will save time.
what I wanna know is, where are these 600 people, surely someone can come in here and tell us how their trial went(i know there's confidentiality stuff but still!)Comment
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I think the merger is definitely the reason. They knew even before the merger how the study was going. This has all been planned out, and the smart way to do it would be to release news when it is time to do so. It's like a poker game - allow your opponent (investors in this case, because they want your money) to keep betting and raise the stakes. When the investors have decided "Ok, that's enough for now, what else have you got?" then give them a little more - perhaps with news of a release, or good news about a phase 2b trial. They throw in more money, and continue to do so, raising the price of the stock even more. It's all about money.
Also, if you were 1 of those 600 people, and it was working for you, would you risk losing this treatment to let others know? Of course not. Because in all likelihood, they will find out, and boot you from the trial.Comment
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Bought 12 bottles of generic bim .03% , gonna use them on my crown. There's some minor thinning left there after fin, but I'm hoping it will make it look like nothing ever happened.
I wonder if dermarolling helps....Comment
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Hey guys,
Just checking in to add to the confusion/discussion. Like you, I am feeling a little nervous that the bimatoprost results have not yet been released (and that it appears the company has not swiftly moved into Phase 3). I see bimatoprost as an important treatment and also as a signal that maybe setipiprant has promise (due to their mutual reliance on prostaglandin science).
There seems to be a great inconsistency of messages from Allergan. As 2014COA noted, in 2011 (wow, that's a long time ago) Scott Whitcup mentioned two Phase 3's. But in the company's 2013 10k (http://agn.client.shareholder.com/se...ID=850693-14-2), they mention the existence of two Phase 2's. And then in the 2014 10k (http://agn.client.shareholder.com/se...ID=850693-15-2) there is no mention of any additional Phase 2 or Phase 3 trials (although the existence of these additional trials is not expressly ruled out either).
Anyways, it seems that the regulatory pathway is at least somewhat unclear. No idea how the merger affects any of this, and whether Actavis has different plans for bimatoprost or different standards for moving into Phase 3 than Allergan. I guess we just sit and wait nervously for a little while longer? :/Comment
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