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Thread: Replicel

  1. #761
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pate View Post
    The 15k figure came from the stockbroker's report on Replicel that was posted a few pages back. It was the proposed revenue figure for Replicel, which would mean the cost of the procedure would be significantly more expensive because the doctor or clinic that administers it needs to take their cut too.

    But I think it was just a plucked-out-of-the-air figure, not based on anything official from Replicel. To be honest the whole valuation thing in that report was pretty lame but broker clients want to see hard numbers, not just potential, so they had to come up with a valuation metric.

    The reason for having to go back is because it's likely it will take multiple treatments to achieve full density. Even if they achieve a 100% increase in hair count (which is more than they are looking for), if you have 10% terminal hairs left then you will only have 20% of your original terminal hair density after the procedure.

    There's no reason for it to be two years though. Six weeks to three months is the sort of timeframe they are talking about for repeat treatments of Histogen.
    Speaking of Histogen.... WTF! Where are they?!?

  2. #762
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    Quote Originally Posted by lpenergy View Post
    I think that is the question the Spencer should ask in the next interview. In the mice tests, they marked the injected cells with fluoresence I believe so that they were able to distinguish between brand new follicles which all had flourescent markers compared with pre-existing follicles that maybe only had a couple of new dsc cells that were recruited into existing follicles. I guess that is a question whether injected cells were marked in some way? It seems that may not be safe.
    I think they were genetically engineered cells carrying firefly-type genes to make them fluoresce. That won't be happening with the human trials, I imagine.

    So I agree, this would be a good question to put to Replicel.

  3. #763
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kiwi View Post
    Speaking of Histogen.... WTF! Where are they?!?
    Didn't they start their next trial around January? The eight injections followed by another eight at six weeks.

    So we might get a three-month update from them pretty soon too.

  4. #764
    Senior Member hairysituation's Avatar
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    I actually believe more in Histogen than Replicel, at least temporary. They have actually showed real results with their trials. So for a guy like me with a NW2, I guess I can archive a great result with this kind of results:

    http://www.histogen.com/images/hsc.jpg

  5. #765
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    Didn't Histogen achieve something like 70% regrowth at 12 month mark?

    EDIT: Nevermind, poster above me just linked to a picture that shows this. Doesn't look terribly significant to me for some reason, though (based on those two photos).

  6. #766
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    Quote Originally Posted by hairysituation View Post
    I think you can bet on stocks dropping in value and then make a profit of it. If you bet on Replicel's trial results beiing unsuccesful, and ergo considering that the stocks will drop in value, you can make a profit of it. That way you will either make money or have a great hope for the future regarding hairloss. It will be kind of a win-win situation!
    TRADING LESSON
    How much can you lose if you bet on a stock going up? Only what you invested in the first place.

    How much can you lose if you bet on a stock going down? There is no limit to how much you can lose.

  7. #767
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    Quote Originally Posted by NotBelievingIt View Post
    TRADING LESSON
    How much can you lose if you bet on a stock going up? Only what you invested in the first place.

    How much can you lose if you bet on a stock going down? There is no limit to how much you can lose.
    Why isn't there a limit to how much you can lose? Please educate me, I'm interested in trading.

  8. #768
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    Quote Originally Posted by clandestine View Post
    Didn't Histogen achieve something like 70% regrowth at 12 month mark?

    EDIT: Nevermind, poster above me just linked to a picture that shows this. Doesn't look terribly significant to me for some reason, though (based on those two photos).
    On that one patient they got 70% yes. And on another patient about the same. They were the best results. But the average was about 20% regrowth if I recall correctly. Which means a decent number of them had less than 20% growth.

  9. #769
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    Quote Originally Posted by hairysituation View Post
    Why isn't there a limit to how much you can lose? Please educate me, I'm interested in trading.
    Well, technically there are two ways to bet on the price of a stock going down.

    The most recognized is called short selling.

    You borrow someone elses stock and sell it for $X.

    But at some point you have to buy the stock back, to cover the short. If the stock price ends up going up, you then fork out of your own pocket the difference.

    Think of the actions of short selling as the exact opposite of buying low first and selling high second. When you buy low and sell high, you pocket that difference. So if you can short the stock and sell first, you want to sell high and then buy back low.


    So the stock could go to 3 times what you sold it for, so you would have to fork over, from your own cash, 2*$X. But maybe the stock went to 100 times, or 500? Or 1000? The price of the stock knows no ceiling, but there is a floor of $0. So if you bet the price is going up, but it goes to zero, you only lose $X. But if you short it, you could lose anywhere from $0 to $infinite if the price goes up.

    The other method of betting against a stock is through the use of options. I do not believe any stock that is "Over The Counter" has options available, plus the market has to be very "liquid" (alot of shares trading hands everyday) for options to even be, well, an option.

  10. #770
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pate View Post
    The 15k figure came from the stockbroker's report on Replicel that was posted a few pages back. It was the proposed revenue figure for Replicel, which would mean the cost of the procedure would be significantly more expensive because the doctor or clinic that administers it needs to take their cut too.

    But I think it was just a plucked-out-of-the-air figure, not based on anything official from Replicel. To be honest the whole valuation thing in that report was pretty lame but broker clients want to see hard numbers, not just potential, so they had to come up with a valuation metric.

    The reason for having to go back is because it's likely it will take multiple treatments to achieve full density. Even if they achieve a 100% increase in hair count (which is more than they are looking for), if you have 10% terminal hairs left then you will only have 20% of your original terminal hair density after the procedure.

    There's no reason for it to be two years though. Six weeks to three months is the sort of timeframe they are talking about for repeat treatments of Histogen.
    I believe it will cost 20k for a full head of hair that's what spencer said.

    I'll take spencer's word over this full head of hair stock broker anyday .

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