What with the coming announcement, it seems like Replicel is all the rage right about now; but let's keep in mind that there are a few other companies that are trying to save us too.
Personally, Histogen is what first got me interesting in researching possible hair loss cures. What are they up to now a days?
And I haven't heard much about Aderans lately. Are they still in clinical trials?
I can't really seem to find much (though I might just be being lazy what with it being late). I'm not asking anyone to write a research paper or anything, but does anyone have a general status update on Histogen and Aderans? And also a 1 to 10 on how you feel about those routes?
Finally, I've heard so many different numbers that it's hard to know what to trust. Can anyone list the suggested release dates the individual companies have given? I know that time tables never seem to work out (and in fact, nothing seems to work out), but what have those three (Replicel, Histogen, and Aderans) given as best case scenario when-I-can-buy-this dates?
Thanks for replying if you do! Hopefully there is a better internet hair loss researcher still up who already knows all this.
04-24-2012 11:57 PM
Pate
Histogen - trial ongoing with I think 56 patients. Phase II with 8 injections (probably a staggered 3-2-3 pattern) about 3mm apart, repeated at 6 weeks. From what we can tell injections started in January, so should get an update in the next month or two.
Histogen got held up by that stupid lawsuit and the funding problems it caused. They will probably need at least one more Phase II for a full-head trial, then a Phase III. 2016 seems the earliest likely release date. They have funding issues too so they will need to show some good results to get investors in.
Aderans - apparently improved their response rate from 30% growing at least 13 hairs per sq cm to almost 80%. Obviously this is not a full cure, at best it'll thicken your hair a bit. Some questions over the angle of growth too. Some of the photos they've shown seem to show hair growing at a weird angle. Not sure whether it's significant or not. No word on whether it's compoundable.
Aderans should be going into Phase III in 2013. That'll take 12 months at least, so 2014. Another 12 months at least to license and develop. Absolute best case is 2015, but will probably slip IMO. On the plus side, Aderans won't have to worry about funding.
Obviously a 1-10 scale rating is entirely subjective and based on an incomplete picture (we only know what they choose to tell us), but... If 1 is 'lost all hope', 5 is neutral and 10 is 'practically certain' then I'd rate them as follows.
Histogen:
To get a marketable product available within 5 years: 6
To restore a full head of hair (maybe not permanently): 4
Aderans:
To get a marketable product available within 5 years: 7
To restore a full head of hair: 3
Everyone else will have their own rating. Replicel can't really be rated til we get the results of their trial.
My hope is for a combination of HSC and CB-03-01. Both 5 years away at least.
04-25-2012 05:52 AM
bananana
Off topic - but that number 5 always seems to return to haunt us. It was 5 in 2008 when I started following these topics, it's still 5 today. Why not 4 od 6? :)
Joking aside, I know now we have important companies with strong arguments working on this, but still...
I really DO hope that we wont be in this topic in 5 years talking about 2020.
Life is now.
04-25-2012 07:22 AM
Kirby_
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pate
My hope is for a combination of HSC and CB-03-01. Both 5 years away at least.
Wish they'd hurry up with CB. That could (and should) make fin obsolete, one hopes.
04-25-2012 07:30 AM
2020
Pate is way off....
Histogen themselves said that IF EVERYTHING WENT AS THEY EXPECTED, then they could release their treatment in late 2013-2014 IN ASIA.
^ should be available as acne medicine first within the next 1-2 years MAX
2020, your a funny dude. At first i thought u were a punk but you turned around to be pretty positive person on this board.
04-25-2012 02:22 PM
2020
Quote:
Originally Posted by john2399
2020, your a funny dude. At first i thought u were a punk but you turned around to be pretty positive person on this board.
lol yeah everyone thinks I'm angry or something BECAUSE I USE CAPS A LOT but I'm not :p:p:p
yeah, good things are coming soon. I wouldn't even worry about CB or any other future topical as a new discovery just proved that DHT IS NOT THE MAIN CAUSE OF HAIR LOSS.
A cure may very well come from this one thread: http://************/7j8hml8 :cool:
04-26-2012 02:49 AM
Pate
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2020
Pate is way off....
Histogen themselves said that IF EVERYTHING WENT AS THEY EXPECTED, then they could release their treatment in late 2013-2014 IN ASIA.
^ should be available as acne medicine first within the next 1-2 years MAX
I'm going to remember this comment 2020... :) I'll check back in 2014 and see if we've got HSC and CB-03-01 available, and if we have, I will heartily admit that you were right and I was wrong.
Histogen said that before they were delayed by the lawsuit. They've already slipped nearly a year. And you do realise it's 2014 in a little over 18 months right? And each of these trials takes a year?
Re CB: they haven't even STARTED Phase II for acne yet. And the hair loss drug is at least 12 months behind the acne formulation. Cosmo themselves are saying 2015 for acne, 2016 for hair loss. 1 year is a complete pipe dream.
I hope that they will be brought forward a little with this new agreement but there's no certainty.
Unfortunately, timelines very rarely shift anything other than one way in this game and that way is BACKWARDS.
But I will say this, I agree with john, you are a breath of fresh air from some of these depressive types wanting us all to be as miserable as they are. I like to think I'm walking the middle path. Not too optimistic but realistic in my expectations of efficacy and timeline...
05-03-2012 01:04 AM
alanrudy
Great thread! Pate, I'm curious, now that the results for replicel came out, where would you put them on your two 1-10 scales? Where do others stand on 2020's thinking that it really could be late 2013-2014 if everything goes perfect? Did Histogen give an actual date they are releasing their Phase 2, or just sometime in 2012? I'm still on the fence to just do SMP, but if possible I want to avoid paying 3-4k (I am usually very cost conscious) for a less than optimal treatment (not real hair, not to mention maybe even fading/noticability) and risk complications with future treatments if a really good alternative to SMP will be available within 5 years anyway.
05-03-2012 03:10 AM
Pate
Quote:
Originally Posted by alanrudy
Great thread! Pate, I'm curious, now that the results for replicel came out, where would you put them on your two 1-10 scales?
Well I would have to say the chance of a marketable treatment for Replicel within 5 years is pretty low now. So less than 5 for that. Maybe 2 for a full head of hair? Lower than Aderans right now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by alanrudy
Did Histogen give an actual date they are releasing their Phase 2, or just sometime in 2012?
Last we heard was "within the next few months" and that was about a month ago.
