If I would have to make a guess I would say they will start the Replicel trial slightly after the Shiseido trial. On their site Replicel said that we will see result from the trial they are conducing(which is the Germany-trial) in Q2 2016, that would be a ~24 month trial. It's pretty much like the phase 1 trial. The phase 1 trial lasted for 6 month, than they got Shiseido as an investor, in reality they trialed 6 month more as far as I know. It makes total sense in my eyes. Look at Histogen for example, if you look at their results you will see that between month 6 and 12 there was a good percentage of growth. Will that also be the case for Replicel? I personally believe so, they showed evidence of effectivness and safety to satisfy the general public(okay of course not all of us) after 6 month and said "Hey why let others know what's up". I would do the same thing. They probably will do the same with the phase 2 trial. After 24 month we will see results, if it's not enough for them, they will continue to trial and try simultaneously to get a big investor in the west, than they are set. 2.1 billion people in the east and the rest in the west(I should be a rapper).
Now regarding the Shiseido trial: I believe that if they are willing to pay all the people they trial with than we will know about the results in some years(I do not believe it will be 3 years, even Replicels CEO said it was an estimated timeline). If they only want to pay a smaller group of people to be in the trial i believe we will see the first results after 6 month(length of the original safety trial), than they will show the results and attract the first customers that will try the partially available treatment and nobody can prevent customers to tell about their results.
This are only my personal guesses, but I am optimistic about Replicel, it's not like Shiseido is a joke of a company.
08-26-2014 04:38 PM
efedrez
This is great news! Not only is replicel conducting phase 2 buy also Shiseido will start phase 2 in the same Q.
It's obvious that this companies trust the product and have big plans for it
I'm really counting on new Japanese regulations helping with the time to market and hopefully we will see it available in the East by 2016-17
08-26-2014 06:40 PM
hellouser
Quote:
Originally Posted by joachim
they should hurry up. i'm dying to see the results of phase 2.
if they achieve some good results within the first year, do you think they will share this preliminary results with the public or do we have to wait the 3 years until phase 2 is finished completely?
If they're serious about their attempt to release the treatment during Phase II trials in Japan as per the new legislation, we'll know fairly shortly if the stuff is the real deal or not.
08-26-2014 07:08 PM
joachim
BTW does anybody know if shisheido was ever in talks with histogen? did they evaluate the product or maybe even did some investment in it some years ago?
because if they were a potential investor but saw that histogen isn't worth the money, this would already tell a lot about the difference between histogen and replicel in terms of efficiency/regrowth. just curious.
Awesome link, great info on how the FDA is just a nightmare. Too bad about the crowd that showed up, I would imagine more people would be interested...
12-16-2014 01:59 PM
noisette
Quote:
Originally Posted by hellouser
Awesome link, great info on how the FDA is just a nightmare. Too bad about the crowd that showed up, I would imagine more people would be interested...
Yes I agree with you Hell'
I hope in the recent Japan's law about stem cell....
