2015 outlook.

**hellouser** · 03-10-2015, 01:06 PM

If only people gave a shit about hair loss, we'd have had a cure a long time ago.

**sdsurfin** · 03-10-2015, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by FearTheLoss

I know it's a rough time right now with not much news coming in. We are in the middle of trials for a lot of drugs, and waiting for other companies to start trials as well. It may seem as though there is nothing on the horizon, and in 2012 we thought we would have had Aderans and Histogen here by now for sure, but hey, such is life.

To keep your heads up, and look at this position rationally, we are the luckiest sufferers of AGA to date, in regards to research being done and improvements being made.

1. Transplant results are getting better and better, and within the next two years we will have a scarless, minimally invasive procedure, with better yield than we have ever seen and MAYBE regeneration. I personally believe we will see it to at least some extent (hopefully Dr. Wesley's changes to his instrument still have him focusing on it, because the science IS there.)

2. Bim, this product could be to the market REALLY soon. They just finished phase IIb trials, in which they were using dosages 10x higher than previous research used. Joe from stat, and Spencer both have heard that the results are promising and it could have people coming off propecia and minox. (that's just rumors though, wait to see results by the end of this year/beginning of next)

3. SM, this drug came out of NOWHERE. No one had a single clue that it was being tested in Australia and it is now in the middle of a phase II trial involving over 300 patients in the US. It's focusing on the WNT pathway, and they are only testing it on nw4+ patients.

4. CB, in the middle of phase II POC trials, testing at 5% twice daily and it is supposed to be a finasteride or better without side effects.

5. Replicel, has major backing and they are testing an improved formula on a number of patients, probably at least 3 years out though.

6. Histogen, they haven't come out and said it, but I personally believe they are dead because they were supposed to start phase IIb by now. Reality of it is, their results probably weren't good enough to get the money as investors see other drugs/treatments that have more potential... ex: you don't buy a 2015 ford f250 the day before the 2016 model, that has been redesigned, is going to be released

7. Kythera (setipiprant) cotseralis work going to be tested in trials. This drug is going straight into phase II testing and only needs phase II then Phase III to be released..so it has potential to make it out within 3 years if the results are promising. This will be a good indicator of if the pgd2 pathway is a major factor and will pretty much be the start/end of cots and his work.

8. PRP therapy. It's only getting better, as doctors are gaining more knowledge on growth factors and concentrations..etc. the treatment is improving. I have seen some amazing results in some patients, it just needs to become more consistent.

9. Follicept, may or may not be anything..but we will know in a few months.

10. research continues to advance on bioengineering follicles and finding a real cure. It may be 50 years, or it may be 5 years...but at the rate our knowledge on the subject is advancing..I think we will see a real cure sometime in the next 15 years. There are more research teams working on this than we know, and we are gaining knowledge faster and faster.

11. AA has been cured by accident. You never know what the next day brings..the same could happen for AGA.

It's ridiculous that people think Cotsarellis' work hinges on any of this. He is a top researcher at a top university and has contributed tons to this field. It doesn't matter wether the PGD2 stuff pans out or not, he will keep working there and keep adding to our knowledge. No one gives a shit if a bunch of forum posters are happy with his work or not. He's one of the few scientists who have devote their entire career to this, and he will keep getting paid to research and publish.

**Seuxin** · 03-10-2015, 01:26 PM

It will be good to know the truth for Histogen !

**It's2014ComeOnAlready** · 03-10-2015, 03:04 PM

Bimatoprost is so close. I'm most excited for this right now, because if it can strengthen hair anywhere on the scalp with results significantly better than minoxidil, it's a game-changer. The fact that it can already make an impact at such a low dose with hair loss (.03% concentration) is encouraging. They are testing 1-10%, somewhere in that range will be optimal for hair loss.

I like to think of it in terms of scale - eyelashes get ridiculously full and thick (even if you have the thinnest of eyelashes) with .03%. If they have figured out what is the proper concentration to have this effect on hair, that's just great.

Once we get our hands setipiprant, it's game over for hair loss. These two would make a powerful combination, much more so than fin and minox.

**sosa56** · 03-10-2015, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by FearTheLoss

I know it's a rough time right now with not much news coming in. We are in the middle of trials for a lot of drugs, and waiting for other companies to start trials as well. It may seem as though there is nothing on the horizon, and in 2012 we thought we would have had Aderans and Histogen here by now for sure, but hey, such is life.

To keep your heads up, and look at this position rationally, we are the luckiest sufferers of AGA to date, in regards to research being done and improvements being made.

1. Transplant results are getting better and better, and within the next two years we will have a scarless, minimally invasive procedure, with better yield than we have ever seen and MAYBE regeneration. I personally believe we will see it to at least some extent (hopefully Dr. Wesley's changes to his instrument still have him focusing on it, because the science IS there.)

2. Bim, this product could be to the market REALLY soon. They just finished phase IIb trials, in which they were using dosages 10x higher than previous research used. Joe from stat, and Spencer both have heard that the results are promising and it could have people coming off propecia and minox. (that's just rumors though, wait to see results by the end of this year/beginning of next)

3. SM, this drug came out of NOWHERE. No one had a single clue that it was being tested in Australia and it is now in the middle of a phase II trial involving over 300 patients in the US. It's focusing on the WNT pathway, and they are only testing it on nw4+ patients.

4. CB, in the middle of phase II POC trials, testing at 5% twice daily and it is supposed to be a finasteride or better without side effects.

5. Replicel, has major backing and they are testing an improved formula on a number of patients, probably at least 3 years out though.

6. Histogen, they haven't come out and said it, but I personally believe they are dead because they were supposed to start phase IIb by now. Reality of it is, their results probably weren't good enough to get the money as investors see other drugs/treatments that have more potential... ex: you don't buy a 2015 ford f250 the day before the 2016 model, that has been redesigned, is going to be released

7. Kythera (setipiprant) cotseralis work going to be tested in trials. This drug is going straight into phase II testing and only needs phase II then Phase III to be released..so it has potential to make it out within 3 years if the results are promising. This will be a good indicator of if the pgd2 pathway is a major factor and will pretty much be the start/end of cots and his work.

8. PRP therapy. It's only getting better, as doctors are gaining more knowledge on growth factors and concentrations..etc. the treatment is improving. I have seen some amazing results in some patients, it just needs to become more consistent.

9. Follicept, may or may not be anything..but we will know in a few months.

10. research continues to advance on bioengineering follicles and finding a real cure. It may be 50 years, or it may be 5 years...but at the rate our knowledge on the subject is advancing..I think we will see a real cure sometime in the next 15 years. There are more research teams working on this than we know, and we are gaining knowledge faster and faster.

11. AA has been cured by accident. You never know what the next day brings..the same could happen for AGA.

Thanks very much for writing and posting this, it helps me to be optimistic and have hope.

Is follica definitely dead then?

**KO1** · 03-10-2015, 04:03 PM

How do you guys know Kythera is going to do a P2 trial? Their presentation only mentioned a PoC?

**It's2014ComeOnAlready** · 03-10-2015, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by KO1

How do you guys know Kythera is going to do a P2 trial? Their presentation only mentioned a PoC?

It's the same thing. They announced they will run a phase 2 POC because they need to establish efficacy, since dosing and safety are done. Once efficacy is established, they can test it on a larger group in a phase 3.

**KO1** · 03-10-2015, 04:12 PM

ic...then perhaps we can know by late next year if it works. Given that KY is a public company, they'll likely disclose if it worked or not and not just keep quiet the way Follica did.

**epipapilla** · 03-10-2015, 04:32 PM

What about Pilox? Don't you see this as a potential new hair regrowth treatment?

**FearTheLoss** · 03-10-2015, 05:30 PM

I don't really put much attention into treatments that are more than likely snake oil. I think pilox is a joke.

**Thinning@30** · 03-11-2015, 07:45 PM

Nice post, FearTheLoss. We were due for one of these "current state of the research" type discussions. I too have been around here long enough to remember when it seemed like Histogen or Aderans would have something coming to market just about now. Sad. At least we've been pleasantly surprised by a few things that seemed to come out of nowhere, like SM.

By the way, aren't you leaving out the hair cloning studies at National Taiwan University? I was under the impression they had recruited a large number of people and that a trial was ongoing, or did I miss something? Please don't tell me they failed already!

**KO1** · 03-11-2015, 08:06 PM

I think SM is probably the most interesting thing going right now. Wnt is so important for hair growth, and a number of growth promoters (Minoxidil, PSI, VPA) involve this pathway. I have a feeling it will be part of the solution, whatever that might be. Would love to see what the results are.

**FearTheLoss** · 03-11-2015, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by Thinning@30

Nice post, FearTheLoss. We were due for one of these "current state of the research" type discussions. I too have been around here long enough to remember when it seemed like Histogen or Aderans would have something coming to market just about now. Sad. At least we've been pleasantly surprised by a few things that seemed to come out of nowhere, like SM.

By the way, aren't you leaving out the hair cloning studies at National Taiwan University? I was under the impression they had recruited a large number of people and that a trial was ongoing, or did I miss something? Please don't tell me they failed already!

Yeah I don't know much about it, so I kind of put it under the stuff with working on the real cure. I think they finish with that work around 2017? I haven't really read that much into it. There is so much work going on that we don't even know about.

KO1, yeah SM is really interesting. I wish we had a way of seeing what their phase I results were, even though it's just for assessing safety, they had to have seen something impressive to conduct such a MASSIVE phase II trial in the U.S., in my opinion.

**FooFighter** · 03-11-2015, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by FearTheLoss

Yeah I don't know much about it, so I kind of put it under the stuff with working on the real cure. I think they finish with that work around 2017? I haven't really read that much into it. There is so much work going on that we don't even know about.

KO1, yeah SM is really interesting. I wish we had a way of seeing what their phase I results were, even though it's just for assessing safety, they had to have seen something impressive to conduct such a MASSIVE phase II trial in the U.S., in my opinion.

Histogen had very good results, maybe one of the best, but the main problem is that their stem cells have risk to cause cancer, so probably they should investigate a lot more. That was also same with the russian hairloss reaserchers and papers. Stem cells are the future potential cure/better treatments, but scientist have a lot work to do to bring them like treatment.

To bring cure for something you should firstly understand what brings you to that condition. Science is only on half way to solve hairloss puzzle and thats way is hard to make good treatment, because we still dont understand the science behind AGA.

2015 outlook.

2015 outlook.

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