
Buying replicel stock thread
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sharp rise between 3pm and 4pm after dropping the whole day. Not sure if that means anything.....Leave a comment:
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Replicel stock is up today with about 61,000 shares traded, which is quite a bit for that company. (The average volume is 7,152.)Leave a comment:
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REPCF is down to $1.75 a share. I've been considering buying. Setting up a ScottTrade account right now.
Is there anyone on here with an opinion of why the sudden few drops in price though? Maybe opinions involving reasons not to buy? Are people just getting antsy and jumping ship before the scheduled April announcement, which would lower the price? Or is there some public reason I'm not familiar with to suspect that Replicel will be shown to be ineffective?
I will also accept guesses of insider trading, people in the know getting out, which would be tragically disappointing. Seems like that would be mostly speculative, but if you have reason to believe that (via knowledge of the market or some inside knowledge on your own part), you should tell us!
If you are so kind to answer, please frame it in a way that everyone (even an idiot) could understand. Not that I'm an idiot, but I am fairly stock market retarded.
It's a very thinly traded stock (not many shares are traded on any given day) so, any type of trade activity can affect the price quite dramatically. Even at 1.75$ the stock is still well within it's trading range, so, i wouldn't try to read too much into fluctuations one way or the other. At least not yet.Leave a comment:
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REPCF is down to $1.75 a share. I've been considering buying. Setting up a ScottTrade account right now.
Is there anyone on here with an opinion of why the sudden few drops in price though? Maybe opinions involving reasons not to buy? Are people just getting antsy and jumping ship before the scheduled April announcement, which would lower the price? Or is there some public reason I'm not familiar with to suspect that Replicel will be shown to be ineffective?
I will also accept guesses of insider trading, people in the know getting out, which would be tragically disappointing. Seems like that would be mostly speculative, but if you have reason to believe that (via knowledge of the market or some inside knowledge on your own part), you should tell us!
If you are so kind to answer, please frame it in a way that everyone (even an idiot) could understand. Not that I'm an idiot, but I am fairly stock market retarded.Leave a comment:
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What delay does everyone keep referring to? I thought that the target release date was April 2012 all along, so they are right on track. Every thread is referring to some delay, maybe I'm missing something.Leave a comment:
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I am so completely worried about the delay, i dont even care now about the stock prices anymore. i dont care if i have to sell my soul, god knows that hairloss has already taken it anyways...doesn anyone out there know if they were even able to grow one hair on a human head?
But phase 1 results will be a great indicator of where this treatment is heading to.Leave a comment:
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I am so completely worried about the delay, i dont even care now about the stock prices anymore. i dont care if i have to sell my soul, god knows that hairloss has already taken it anyways...doesn anyone out there know if they were even able to grow one hair on a human head?Leave a comment:
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Replicel Private Placement
I was about to drop this post into the main discussion for Replicel, but it really relates more to the stock and may be of more limited interest.
I dug around a bit on the Private Placement recently announced. Initially, I was curious if this funding had any bearing on Phase II research, which might indicate undisclosed success of phase 1. I dug a bit through their financials, and it appears likely that this private equity placement is exactly as stated in the press release and was to meet “general working capital needs”.
What I was hoping for was an indication that this money would have no other purpose other than for phase II testing. On pg. 21 of the NBT research report, it states that "Replicel needs to complete a $5 to $10 million round of funding over the next 90-120 days to completely fund the company through Phase II trials." The research report was dated 12/3/2011. So, that time range would place the additional funding sometime in March. So, I decided to do a little cash analysis to determine if this money would be considered part of the $5-$10 million of funding for phase II testing. The fact that this funding has not happened yet seems consistent with their approximate 30 day delay of phase 1 results.
Cash Analysis:
Cash on hand 9/30/2011: $1,210,000 (Per Q3 2011 Balance Sheet)
Cash used by Ops (as of 9/30/2011): 2,470,414
Cash used by Ops (as of 3/31/2011): 963,914
Cash used / month = (2,470,414-963,914)/6 = $251,083
So, I get a burn rate a little different from the NBT research report, which showed a burn rate of $100,000 per month, which could be due to excluding the cost of the clinical trials. At any rate, if Replicel burned through their cash at $250k/month, they would have already run out of cash by now (unless they had an unannounced private placement since 9/30/2011). That may have been what the $99k was for provided at the end of February. However, some of their costs such as the cost to run the Clinical trial may be variable. The end result is that it seems that this initial private placement of $1.3 million was for general operations.
However, the statement says that Replicel plans on issuing additional tranches of equity financing over the next several weeks at the same terms as this tranche, which would be their execution of the Phase II funding. It would have no other purpose and would not be needed to meet their current cash needs. Additionally, it may be dependent upon successful phase 1 funding. I don’t know if this will be prior to the release date of the phase 1, but it will be worth keeping an eye on this funding.Leave a comment:
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