RepliCel - Spencer Kobren's Follow Up Interview With CEO David Hall

[Sogeking]

What really sux about TRX2 is that Spencer hasnt deleted that thread. Is that because Spencer thinks it might be a real solution?

I am curious about that one...

Forum gives us freedom to discuss about any commercially available treatments. I believe it is a good way to warn people.
To delete that thread would be unfair to those that discuss it and use the product. Besides we all know it is snake oil since we are still in cutting edge/future treatments forum.
And this wait is giving us ample time to bicker and speculate since there is nothing else to do .

[needhairplease]

this my first post so i truly am sorry to be negative, but i just can't escape the obvious; If there was a solution, whether it be Replicel, or Histogen, or whatever, and it could reach any kind of break through level of hair regeneration, restoration, regrowth or any other re (which for argument sake lets say is 70%). Don't you think as soon as they were done with their first human clinical trial, they would have had the evidence to create a buzz and clamor over its greatness that this company would have been able to raise so much capital it could easily come to market in less than 3 years.
the bald truth is that the wonder drug or treatment, or miracle (aka over 70 percent) is not out there, and it is not on the pipeline. We may very well have a solution in 2015, but i am sure it will be something that was recently discovered, was shown to be miraculously effective, raised capital determinatively quickly (easy enough to do in a 3.5 billion dollar market) and came to fruition as Korben likes to say.
But I don't believe in miracle or in santa clause, because i have watched people (myself included) wait for the same solution for over 20 years now, and it always seemed to be 5 years away.
Market creates need, and usually a product gets beat by another product, by just a little bit more. It amazes me that people wonder why that is, its because the market is paying for the solution, and as long as the solution is only just enough, the market remains a consistent investor, and grows. So the payoff, in a capitalistic money making utopia, aka.the real world, is not one solution to end all solutions. Its not every going to be a cure, it will just be something that much better.
which is why there is no cure for cancer, there is no cure for aids, and there is no cure for baldness.
Someday they will all be cured, but if you want to estimate when that is, take a simple sample size of all medical issues the world has, divide that by how many have been solved, average out how long each one of those problems have been scientifically researched for a solution, factor in the exponential increase in scientific capability and allow for that to reduce the length of time needed.

my jist and prediction: Replicel will be 50 percent effective, it will beat out the competition, and make some money, just like propecia, and now avodart. There may be a contender or two who do something in the 30-40 percent range before that time. and we will not see a real cure until 2020, and replicel is not it.

Also, just a quick note to Spenz, it really would have been nice for you to not be so nice.
Stop thinking like a consumer, start thinking like a reporter and ask the hard questions.
1. Now that you have tested on humans and we are reaching the 3 month period since patient 0, have you seen growth?
If so, how much?
2. Why are you leaning back on a 20 percent benchmark? what are your exact predictions for efficacy of this treatment?
3. What are the main hurdles that have deterred the development of this treatment, being that it has been in development for over 9 years?
3. How do you see the market maturing around you? Who do you feel are your main competitors, and do you feel that their hopes and projections are similar to your own.
4. In treatment in mice, how have you faired in comparison to other treatments in the pipeline.
5. What are your biggest obstacles in the foreseeable future?

and so many more...

Anyway, glad to be here, think its nice to have a place to rant and release all my pent up anger at my ever-thinning top hat.

Saludos a todos..

[Kiwi]

this my first post so i truly am sorry to be negative, but i just can't escape the obvious; If there was a solution, whether it be Replicel, or Histogen, or whatever, and it could reach any kind of break through level of hair regeneration, restoration, regrowth or any other re (which for argument sake lets say is 70%). Don't you think as soon as they were done with their first human clinical trial, they would have had the evidence to create a buzz and clamor over its greatness that this company would have been able to raise so much capital it could easily come to market in less than 3 years.
the bald truth is that the wonder drug or treatment, or miracle (aka over 70 percent) is not out there, and it is not on the pipeline. We may very well have a solution in 2015, but i am sure it will be something that was recently discovered, was shown to be miraculously effective, raised capital determinatively quickly (easy enough to do in a 3.5 billion dollar market) and came to fruition as Korben likes to say.
But I don't believe in miracle or in santa clause, because i have watched people (myself included) wait for the same solution for over 20 years now, and it always seemed to be 5 years away.
Market creates need, and usually a product gets beat by another product, by just a little bit more. It amazes me that people wonder why that is, its because the market is paying for the solution, and as long as the solution is only just enough, the market remains a consistent investor, and grows. So the payoff, in a capitalistic money making utopia, aka.the real world, is not one solution to end all solutions. Its not every going to be a cure, it will just be something that much better.
which is why there is no cure for cancer, there is no cure for aids, and there is no cure for baldness.
Someday they will all be cured, but if you want to estimate when that is, take a simple sample size of all medical issues the world has, divide that by how many have been solved, average out how long each one of those problems have been scientifically researched for a solution, factor in the exponential increase in scientific capability and allow for that to reduce the length of time needed.

my jist and prediction: Replicel will be 50 percent effective, it will beat out the competition, and make some money, just like propecia, and now avodart. There may be a contender or two who do something in the 30-40 percent range before that time. and we will not see a real cure until 2020, and replicel is not it.

Also, just a quick note to Spenz, it really would have been nice for you to not be so nice.
Stop thinking like a consumer, start thinking like a reporter and ask the hard questions.
1. Now that you have tested on humans and we are reaching the 3 month period since patient 0, have you seen growth?
If so, how much?
2. Why are you leaning back on a 20 percent benchmark? what are your exact predictions for efficacy of this treatment?
3. What are the main hurdles that have deterred the development of this treatment, being that it has been in development for over 9 years?
3. How do you see the market maturing around you? Who do you feel are your main competitors, and do you feel that their hopes and projections are similar to your own.
4. In treatment in mice, how have you faired in comparison to other treatments in the pipeline.
5. What are your biggest obstacles in the foreseeable future?

and so many more...

Anyway, glad to be here, think its nice to have a place to rant and release all my pent up anger at my ever-thinning top hat.

Saludos a todos..

Blah blah blah. You dont have a clue either way. Speculation both positive and negative is only that.

Nice questions though at the end of your rant. I too hope spencer mans up and asks the hard questions next time.

[re22]

If Replicel got 50% that would be a de facto cure. 50% would be magnificent. Most of your arguments are very specious, because, for one, we don't really even know exactly what these companies are doing on the business side of things. Secondly, these companies are still in Phase I/II trials, and have not gone through a rigorous testing protocol. I don't think most of you real realize how extensive this process is: for these companies to just flat out say that they have a cure so prematurely would be wreckless and scientifically unsound. You also have to put into consideration patents and other legal things that we probably don't know about either. I know people on these forums love to jump to conclusions, but let's just focus on the facts as they become available to us.

[needhairplease]

Wow, good thing you pointed out my blog was a speculation, for a second there I was worried everyone in here was working toward an accurate prediction of how the medical world will unfold in the completely unforseeable future.
(Where's the smiley for relieved?)

[needhairplease]

Wow, good thing you pointed out my blog was a speculation, for a second there I was worried everyone in here was working toward an accurate prediction of how the medical world will unfold in the completely unforseeable future.
(Where's the smiley for relieved?)

[needhairplease]

If propecia is 20 percent, and u call 50 percent a defacto cure.
I when I read ur blow I honestly hope you don't understands what de facto means.

[re22]

50% of your total hair, meaning that a Norwood 1 would be 100%, wouldn't be a good result?

[nrj]

If propecia is 20 percent, and u call 50 percent a defacto cure.
I when I read ur blow I honestly hope you don't understands what de facto means.

and the difference between propecia and replicel, is that you dont have to take another drug in ure life, you dont lose any more existing hair and there are no sexual or specific side effects, if thats not a cure i dont know what is...

if someone realises his hair loss just as it starts and goes to replicel, he is completely saved.

[Kiwi]

If Replicel got 50% that would be a de facto cure. 50% would be magnificent. Most of your arguments are very specious, because, for one, we don't really even know exactly what these companies are doing on the business side of things. Secondly, these companies are still in Phase I/II trials, and have not gone through a rigorous testing protocol. I don't think most of you real realize how extensive this process is: for these companies to just flat out say that they have a cure so prematurely would be wreckless and scientifically unsound. You also have to put into consideration patents and other legal things that we probably don't know about either. I know people on these forums love to jump to conclusions, but let's just focus on the facts as they become available to us.

Not to mention the non disclosure agreements people in the trials have no doubt been made to sign.

From a business point of view Aderans are kicking ass. Securing millions of dollars and almost wrapping up phase 2 trials. Nobody invests hundreds of millions into a drug unless they think they will see a return.