It is well past time to stop this negative BS concerning Replicel.
O.K., I get it. Most you you do not understand enough about it to be able to see that Replicel's results are positive. Since you obviously don't get it, at least have the grace of God to shut up with the negativity. You are doing far more harm than good. So put a cork in it.
05-03-2012 10:21 AM
Davey Jones
Agreed. People need to remember a couple things:
1. This injection was in the temple. People keep saying things like "so it doesn't even work as good as Rogaine?" To my knowledge, Rogaine doesn't really grow hair at all in the temple region. (I could be wrong, but I heard that. Can someone verify?) The point being, we all know that the temple is a hard place to grow hair. Anything is a good sign.
2. This is the six month mark. Let's admit it, we all probably know way too much about hair growth cycles for our own good. So why is everyone forgetting everything they know now? Treatment takes a lot longer than six months.
Does any body have the numbers on how Histogen was doing at six months? I feel like I remember disappointing results during that period, only to find things looking a lot more promising at a year.
05-03-2012 10:26 AM
Davey Jones
I just read in another forum that the injections were at the vertex. I've been hearing temple for so long though. Does anyone have the facts on this?
05-03-2012 10:31 AM
kaandereli
histogen achieved 23% growth in 3 months.
but still i dont say that replicel has failed, because the dosage was relatively low.also in one of histogen's graphs, there is an exponential increase in hair growth after 1 year, so we should look at 12 months results
05-03-2012 10:31 AM
gmonasco
David Hall said in his interview with Spencer that the injections were at the vertex.
05-03-2012 10:42 AM
amadeus
Thank you for posting this Tracy. The worst and most disgusting example of the negatively come from the poisonous hairsite crew. These are just disgusting people who’s mission in life is to poison anything that does not fit into their bizarre agenda. Replicel is making positive steps and like it was said in the interview, it was only six months! Everyone should be thrilled that this company and others are working to cure hair loss and stop looking at the glass half empty. I’m sick of these trolls!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tracy C
O.K., I get it. Most you you do not understand enough about it to be able to see that Replicel's results are positive. Since you obviously don't get it, at least have the grace of God to shut up with the negativity. You are doing far more harm than good. So put a cork in it.
05-03-2012 10:54 AM
The Alchemist
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tracy C
O.K., I get it. Most you you do not understand enough about it to be able to see that Replicel's results are positive. Since you obviously don't get it, at least have the grace of God to shut up with the negativity. You are doing far more harm than good. So put a cork in it.
Do everyone a favor and shut up. You have no clue what you're talking about.
The study was phase I/II
They studied safety AND efficacy. If you think 3.2% growth is positive, then you need to get your head examined or check back in to elementary school and learn some mathematics. The ONLY aspect that this trial is positive for is safety. But, that's mitigated by the fact that they already knew this was going to be safe...as autologous cell treatments tend to be. It would've been a complete and utter shock if it wasn't.
Replicel may not have been expecting to see the home run 30%+ result in this kind of trial; but, to get so little (i remind you that 3.2% growth only happened for 60% of the subjects, nearly half of which were female) is not what they were anticipating. And if you want to know what they were anticipating, go back and listen to their promotions, look at the website etc..
David Hall is on record (in writing, on video and radio interviews) as saying that their bench mark for success is current treatments, i.e. minox and propecia. Their results fell short by an order of magnitude. This is not something that a little tweaking of injection volume is going to fix. Something went fundamentally wrong with their study. If you think that they were expecting these results, or that this is a postive event, then you're clueless. This is a major red flag. And all you need to do is look at the stock price to see whether this is positive or negative. That sharp downward sloping line indicates that money is moving away from Replicel, not towards them...which is what would happen with a truly "positive" result.
The only (slight) chance they have with this is IF, the vellus hairs go terminal and some additional growth is seen in the next 6 months. I can assure you that without any improvement on these results in the next 6-12 months, they will be selling off their IP to try and recoup any money they can. The results they have, to date, will not attract money. Money is the life blood of any company, especially ones in such an early stage of development.
It's scary how naive some people can be.
05-03-2012 11:01 AM
25 going on 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tracy C
O.K., I get it. Most you you do not understand enough about it to be able to see that Replicel's results are positive. Since you obviously don't get it, at least have the grace of God to shut up with the negativity. You are doing far more harm than good. So put a cork in it.
Man is a jumpy creature, and a lot of people don't know how to interpret clinical trial data (including investors)--not because it's hard but because they haven't taken the time yet.
Look at how many are still focused on % of growth as if it's important to this trial, when they could have known better months in advance. And this is several days after the announcement.
It's typical forum panic. We've all seen this before.
But I do think the hysteria will die down as people gain context.
05-03-2012 11:04 AM
jman91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tracy C
O.K., I get it. Most you you do not understand enough about it to be able to see that Replicel's results are positive. Since you obviously don't get it, at least have the grace of God to shut up with the negativity. You are doing far more harm than good. So put a cork in it.
people putting 'a cork in it' is surely a fundamental contradiction of an open forum...Everyone is entitled to their own opinion.
there is a lot of false hope going on with replicel, we should just focus on histogen and Aderans! Replicel is dead in the water, whos going to buy stock with results like 3%? come on, this false hope is doing harm to people, making them keep faith in company that won't help produce the goods, let alone some people on this forum who invested $1000's. Can't we all just accept replicel blew their shot, but there are still other promising companies doing stuff.
05-03-2012 11:04 AM
gmonasco
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Alchemist
Do everyone a favor and shut up. You have no clue what you're talking about.
If only you'd heeded that advice.
Quote:
They studied safety AND efficacy.
Yes, in a study that was something like 95% about safety and 5% about efficacy. Phase I trials are far too limited in scope to be anything close to a thorough examination of efficacy. If you've got everything spot-on the first time around, then you can demonstrate efficacy; but if not, such trials don't allow for the adjustment of multiple variables that might produce different results. True efficacy can only be gauged after all a full Phase II trial.
Quote:
This is not something that a little tweaking of injection volume is going to fix.
There are a whole lot of other variables to consider: dosage, injection site, injection frequency, test subject variability, latency period, etc.
