Buying replicel stock thread

[Maradona]

hey guys after long thought me and a friend will put around 600-1000$ in replicel's stock.

I mean I am already putting my life at stake with replicel since in my opinion it's the only solution to my hair loss so why not put 1k of my hard earned money :o.

Anyways if you are expert please enligthen the people how to buy them or if youre simply interested in the stocks post here.

Has anybody already bought stocks?

Thanks a lot guys.

Edit: guys I apologize if this is not the right place to post this, if it's not feel free to delete it if you are an admin.

[2020]

geez... how are you so sure that Replicel will deliver great results?

[Maradona]

geez... how are you so sure that Replicel will deliver great results?

I am about 80% sure it will yield some results, i got nothing to lose other than a bald head for the rest of my life anyways.

[Pate]

I would do the same except my current account with my broker doesn't allow me to trade international stocks (I'm in Australia).

$600 to $1000 sounds like a good amount too. Any more is starting to get a little risky.

Incidentally I notice that the share price rebounded strongly the last couple of days and is back at $2.50 after its little drop to $1.80. It might be worth waiting for one of these dips before you buy (but don't wait too long because if news comes out about the trial and it's good, you could miss the boat).

Replicel is listed on the OTCBB which is not a normal stock exchange like the NYSE or NASDAQ. It is an exchange for smaller companies that don't qualify for listing on the larger exchanges. I don't know how you go about trading on the OTCBB, maybe someone who trades US stocks can help.

I don't see why we can't have a thread about the stock, since Replicel's stock is intrinsically linked to the success or failure of the treatment. Otherwise we are only going to talk about it on the Replicel thread!

[Maradona]

I would do the same except my current account with my broker doesn't allow me to trade international stocks (I'm in Australia).

$600 to $1000 sounds like a good amount too. Any more is starting to get a little risky.

Incidentally I notice that the share price rebounded strongly the last couple of days and is back at $2.50 after its little drop to $1.80. It might be worth waiting for one of these dips before you buy (but don't wait too long because if news comes out about the trial and it's good, you could miss the boat).

Replicel is listed on the OTCBB which is not a normal stock exchange like the NYSE or NASDAQ. It is an exchange for smaller companies that don't qualify for listing on the larger exchanges. I don't know how you go about trading on the OTCBB, maybe someone who trades US stocks can help.

I don't see why we can't have a thread about the stock, since Replicel's stock is intrinsically linked to the success or failure of the treatment. Otherwise we are only going to talk about it on the Replicel thread!

Thanks for that info man, definitely gonna wait these up and downs for some time. How does one go about selling the stocks though? Assuming replicel goes up to 10.25 which is what experts now predict, how do i get my profit? do i have to personally sell it? sell it back to the company? That's the only part that's stopping me now.

Again appreciate your input ;) .

[Pate]

Assuming the company is not bought out, you sell it on the market to another buyer. That's how the stock market works. So you will put in an order to sell your 400 shares (if you spend $1000 at $2.50 a share you will get 400 shares) at $10.25 and somebody who wants to buy them will buy them and you will get a bit over $4000.

I would expect if the stock reaches $10 (which is pretty conservative) they will list on the NYSE or another big stock exchange and then it will be a lot easier to sell your shares. Right now they are trading on OTCBB and there aren't many buyers or sellers (which is probably the main reason the price is jumping around so much) but if they have success they will end up on a bigger exchange and there will be heaps of people buying and selling.

A lot of investors and most institutions won't touch OTCBB stocks because they are so risky. So if/when they list on NYSE then many more people will be interested in trading them.

If you are finding it all a bit complicated you could think about talking to a financial planner or something similar and get some investment advice.

[born]

how many threads are you going to make?

[NotBelievingIt]

It is unlikely RepliCel will ever exist on a regular exchange.

It is far more likely to be bought out.

If I had to take a reasonable guess, it will be bought out for something like $1 billion which would result in about a 10x return at current prices.

"don't pull such a number out of your ass"

I'm not.

$1B would be a reasonable buyout figure, if not low. Why? Lets play some number games:

We'll hold steady at 50M outstanding shares.

Lets also imagine it costs $8000 for treatment.

The first year there are 10,000 who pony it up. This is probably low, very low :)

Thats revenue of $80M. Lets imagine the operating margin is 20%, that leaves $16M as income available to share holders. At 50M shares, thats an Earning Per Share of $0.32

Being a biotech growth (ha!) stock, it would be reasonable to expect a Price to Earnings ratio in the range of at least 40 (if not way higher but lets not go crazy)

This would translate to a share price of $12.80. With 50M shares outstanding, that equates to a market cap of $640M.

Therefore it is not unreasonable that the company jumps to being valued at something like $500M when its announced its all good and will start being available.

Considering a buyout of a biotech growth stock is usually at least double what 'the market' has priced the company at, I would imagine that a buyout of RepliCel would be in the $25/share range, or approximately $1.25B

In other words, equating to approximately 10x return an investment at todays price of $2.50.


Keep in mind I'm making up numbers for cost of treatment, those doing it, the operating margin and PE ratio but in my opinion they are well within reason.

[Maradona]

It is unlikely RepliCel will ever exist on a regular exchange.

It is far more likely to be bought out.

If I had to take a reasonable guess, it will be bought out for something like $1 billion which would result in about a 10x return at current prices.

"don't pull such a number out of your ass"

I'm not.

$1B would be a reasonable buyout figure, if not low. Why? Lets play some number games:

We'll hold steady at 50M outstanding shares.

Lets also imagine it costs $8000 for treatment.

The first year there are 10,000 who pony it up. This is probably low, very low :)

Thats revenue of $80M. Lets imagine the operating margin is 20%, that leaves $16M as income available to share holders. At 50M shares, thats an Earning Per Share of $0.32

Being a biotech growth (ha!) stock, it would be reasonable to expect a Price to Earnings ratio in the range of at least 40 (if not way higher but lets not go crazy)

This would translate to a share price of $12.80. With 50M shares outstanding, that equates to a market cap of $640M.

Therefore it is not unreasonable that the company jumps to being valued at something like $500M when its announced its all good and will start being available.

Considering a buyout of a biotech growth stock is usually at least double what 'the market' has priced the company at, I would imagine that a buyout of RepliCel would be in the $25/share range, or approximately $1.25B

In other words, equating to approximately 10x return an investment at todays price of $2.50.


Keep in mind I'm making up numbers for cost of treatment, those doing it, the operating margin and PE ratio but in my opinion they are well within reason.

that's exactly what me and my friend are thinking just hold these stocks till replicel is bought out, then we can just sell it to big pharma or whoever is buying it and get the money for our treatments.

thanks for the confirmation though, we are not experts at stocking at all !!


:o

[TheLongnHairyProphet]

geez... how are you so sure that Replicel will deliver great results?

you better hope replicel brings good results. Otherwise you'll never have that hair on your avatar, not even half of it. You will be doomed to a life of painful baldness, you can always embrace it though :cool: .


Or You can always wear a piece.


I think it's a good idea to buy the replicel stocks if you've spare change and do not have the money for the replicel treatment if it ever comes out, especially if replicel is your only hope.

heres an advice, guys we really need to stop speculating and wait for april, get depressed after april whatever the results are. Don't get depressed now : )

Till April 30 guys !

[sickly_burnt_tree_forest]

It makes sence to pony up 500 bucks or so...if the company is successful you might have paid for your treatmeant a couple years after it comes out onto the market. If It fails, losing 500 bucks wont sting nowhere as much as the dissapointment for all our poor heads.

[oracle]

I agree with Sickly and some of the others above. I bought $1k worth at 2.00 a few weeks ago with the idea that if the treatment works I will want to be treated and will need to pay approx (guessing) maybe 6-12K. The stock could hit $10-15 dollars and go a long way to paying for my hair.

Conversely, If the the treatment and investment go up in smoke I'd only lose 1k.

One of the easiest gambles I've made. Closed at $2.40 today.

[clandestine]

What's the stock called? Sorry if silly question, not very well versed in these matters.

[Maradona]

I agree with Sickly and some of the others above. I bought $1k worth at 2.00 a few weeks ago with the idea that if the treatment works I will want to be treated and will need to pay approx (guessing) maybe 6-12K. The stock could hit $10-15 dollars and go a long way to paying for my hair.

Conversely, If the the treatment and investment go up in smoke I'd only lose 1k.

One of the easiest gambles I've made. Closed at $2.40 today.

Man I haven't bought the stock yet....I'm still waiting for it to down but at this point it seems it won't go below 2.20 anymore.

Once I buy it I plan to keep it for years, though.

clandestine just google replicel stock or go to replicels page to the investors section.

btw guys which site do you recommend buying the stock from?

[clandestine]

Man I haven't bought the stock yet....I'm still waiting for it to down but at this point it seems it won't go below 2.20 anymore.

Once I buy it I plan to keep it for years, though.

clandestine just google replicel stock or go to replicels page to the investors section.

btw guys which site do you recommend buying the stock from?

2.20 better than 2.40 :)

[ccmethinning]

The symbol is REPCF or REPCF.OB depending on which site you use. I use scottrade. Its legit, simple, and cheap with with $7 commissions. Scottrade also has offices in most cities if you need help.

[BoSox]

Is it difficult buying stock? Do I need somebody or can I just sign up on etrade or whatever and just buy stocks? How often would you get paid if stocks go up? Basically I don't know shit about stocks, all I know is replicel is worth taking the risk and I have 1 grand I can throw in.

[ccmethinning]

Is it difficult buying stock? Do I need somebody or can I just sign up on etrade or whatever and just buy stocks? How often would you get paid if stocks go up? Basically I don't know shit about stocks, all I know is replicel is worth taking the risk and I have 1 grand I can throw in.

It is not difficult. It'll take about 10-15 minutes to sign up to a site like etrade or scottrade. Right now, and probably not in the future either, Replicel doesn't pay dividends, so you won't get any money unless you sell the stock. David Hall has been pretty straight forward in saying that they intend on selling to big pharma if their method works. So your sole profit will be in the form of capital gains on the stock you own. Replicel will get bought out by someone like Merck, and Merck will make something like $15 tender offer on your shares. You should agree to this tender offer and sell your shares to Merck for $15.

In this situation lets say you used scottrade and bought shares today with your $1000. You will pay a $7 commission to the broker to buy the shares, so you have $993 to buy 413 shares @ 2.40/share and will have $1.80 left over. Lets say Replicel works, and the board agrees to a tender offer (because the directors McElwee, Hall, Hoffmann, and some investor dude own a huge amount of the shares) to Merck at $15/share, and you agree to the tender offer, you will sell your 413 shares to Merck for $6195 (I'm not sure if you have to pay a commission when selling on a tender offer or not). So your capital gain on that sale would be $5202. If you sold within one year, you are liable to pay a 20% capital gains tax, or $1040.40, if you sold after holding your shares for more than a year, you are liable for a 15% capital gains tax, or $780.3.

[BoSox]

@ ccmethinning

Thanks for the reply, and information! If I were to invest in Replicel now, how soon would other companies seek to buy them? Is this after the treatment is released, or as soon as their data is released proving it works can I make the money?

Thanks again.

[ccmethinning]

@ ccmethinning

Thanks for the reply, and information! If I were to invest in Replicel now, how soon would other companies seek to buy them? Is this after the treatment is released, or as soon as their data is released proving it works can I make the money?

Thanks again.

If it is effective, I'm not sure at point a buyout comes at. But even if a buyout isn't imminent, and phase 1 results are very positive, you can still sell your shares on the open market.

[young]

You either become rich with a head full of hair, or poor and bald.

[clandestine]

Best to err on the side of caution I suppose. I'll probably put in a few hundred and see what comes of it.

[chrisis]

Can someone explain why people here are investing in this stock?

Also, what are you waiting for in terms of news that make you all rich? A trial of some sort?

[NotBelievingIt]

Can someone explain why people here are investing in this stock?

Also, what are you waiting for in terms of news that make you all rich? A trial of some sort?

There are three reasons people invest in baby biotech growth stocks:

1) They actually "understand" the product being developed and have high hopes and/or a strong belief for its success.
2) Pure speculation. Biotech growth stocks tend to have swings in value, but when very positive news is released they increase substantially in price.
3) They are trading those swings. For instance not too long REPCF was trading around $2 and about 1.5 weeks later it was trading at $2.60 - that 30% rise is pretty substantial.


What are we waiting for? Well, considering the context of the forum - we're in the #1 crowd.

[chrisis]

But what's so promising about this treatment, in a nutshell? Also, what's the timeline for finding out whether it's the real McCoy?

[BoSox]

But what's so promising about this treatment, in a nutshell? Also, what's the timeline for finding out whether it's the real McCoy?

just a cure for baldness, no biggie.

[chrisis]

just a cure for baldness, no biggie.

Not very helpful if I'm honest :rolleyes:

I'm researching this but anyone who's prepared to answer the specific questions, I'd appreciate it.

I see now that end of March is the results of the current trials.

Looks promising.

[clandestine]

Not very helpful if I'm honest :rolleyes:

I'm researching this but anyone who's prepared to answer the specific questions, I'd appreciate it.

I see now that end of March is the results of the current trials.

Looks promising.

You've got to check out the Replicel threads mate. Information regarding Replicel has been iterated again and again. There's one more besides this one I believe. End of march is when they will be releasing a statement regarding efficacy of their phase I trial.

[chrisis]

Also, does anyone know why the stock spiked at upper $20-$30 between 2004 and 2006 before plunging towards $1 for a few years?

Obviously we had the late 2000s stock market crash, but that wasn't until the end of 2007.

[chrisis]

You've got to check out the Replicel threads mate. Information regarding Replicel has been iterated again and again. There's one more besides this one I believe. End of march is when they will be releasing a statement regarding efficacy of their phase I trial.

Ok, I'm going over all of this stuff now. There goes my plans for a productive Friday ;)

Still, I'd be very interested in finding out why the stock has had such a rollercoaster history over the last decade.

[young]

Not very helpful if I'm honest :rolleyes:

I'm researching this but anyone who's prepared to answer the specific questions, I'd appreciate it.

I see now that end of March is the results of the current trials.

Looks promising.

In a nut shell, from what I understand, they extract healthy sheath cup cells (?) from the rear of your head, cultivate them into the millions, and inject them into the top of your head.

If it works, those cells will go in and reactivate all the dead cells, and your hair follicles will spring to life, and grow hair again.

It promises to be a no pain, and very easy procedure, which regrows your natural hair once again.

Of course, it will be expensive, but the best possible solution where you only your own cells, and your own hair without having surgery. It's non-invasive.

I would expect much change for £10.000, but I would hand that over with a smile on my face, knowing that I would have to worry about going bald.

You can imagine this is going to be huge business if it works, and hence their shares will skyrocket.

[chrisis]

My big question is, if they were able to grow hairs on the feet of mice that don't usually grow hair, how will that work cosmetically on a human head? Unless the treatment is administered in a very precise way, couldn't we see people with dodgy hairlines? I'm sure they've considered all of this but can't see any info on it.

[NotBelievingIt]

Also, does anyone know why the stock spiked at upper $20-$30 between 2004 and 2006 before plunging towards $1 for a few years?

Obviously we had the late 2000s stock market crash, but that wasn't until the end of 2007.

Biotech growth stocks go through that on even the slightest news - start of trials, pump and dump by 3rd parties etc. Initial news that weak investors over-reacted too....when a stock has such low volume, it doesn't take much to move it dramatically. I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock jump 100% on the news in March/April if it is indeed positive and they are moving forward with their next trials. How long it remains there will depend on how many people were playing the game and waiting for this kind of swing and then sell.

Also, be aware it never actually hit $30, there was a 1 for 30 reverse split in 2008.

So take whatever price the stock was at prior to October 2008 and divide it by 30 to get its actual price.

[young]

My big question is, if they were able to grow hairs on the feet of mice that don't usually grow hair, how will that work cosmetically on a human head? Unless the treatment is administered in a very precise way, couldn't we see people with dodgy hairlines? I'm sure they've considered all of this but can't see any info on it.

From what I get, it will not produce new hair. It will simply fully activate your follicles.

[NotBelievingIt]

My big question is, if they were able to grow hairs on the feet of mice that don't usually grow hair, how will that work cosmetically on a human head? Unless the treatment is administered in a very precise way, couldn't we see people with dodgy hairlines? I'm sure they've considered all of this but can't see any info on it.

I'm sure what will happen is a large quantities would be injected over the crown area, where there is no need for a hair line. Cowlicks might need special attention if people care to preserve it.

I have two guesses for hair lines:
1) Agreement with Tracy that a transplant would be necessary at the hair line areas. The injections would be limited to areas where hair volume and not position are more important.

2) Injections get progressively smaller as it moves towards the hair line and the full treatment will take multiple visits during growth periods to make a determination whether to move forward near the hairline to prevent what you're talking about.


The mouse injections/pictures don't say a) how much was injected b) how many injections

From what I get, it will not produce new hair. It will simply fully activate your follicles. I thought I read they believe it will create new because the DSC creates a pocket where the "magic" can happen. Its likely more about protecting the current. I think once a follicile has "died" thats it, it would have to be stimulated to grow, but once that happens the new DSC would prevent the DHT strangulation.

[Maradona]

I'm sure what will happen is a large quantities would be injected over the crown area, where there is no need for a hair line. Cowlicks might need special attention if people care to preserve it.

I have two guesses for hair lines:
1) Agreement with Tracy that a transplant would be necessary at the hair line areas. The injections would be limited to areas where hair volume and not position are more important.

2) Injections get progressively smaller as it moves towards the hair line and the full treatment will take multiple visits during growth periods to make a determination whether to move forward near the hairline to prevent what you're talking about.


The mouse injections/pictures don't say a) how much was injected b) how many injections

I thought I read they believe it will create new because the DSC creates a pocket where the "magic" can happen. Its likely more about protecting the current. I think once a follicile has "died" thats it, it would have to be stimulated to grow, but once that happens the new DSC would prevent the DHT strangulation.

Yeah you might need a surgeon for the hairline or else you would be a negative norwood.

I could live with the struggle of being a negative norwood though. :D

[NotBelievingIt]

Yeah you might need a surgeon for the hairline or else you would be a negative norwood.

I could live with the struggle of being a negative norwood though. :D

LOL

I dunno, hairs growing out of center of my forehead wouldn't be terribly attractive.

How do you tell your buds and gf "I gotta shave my forehead" hahah

[chrisis]

Very interesting guys. This leads me to wonder whether many people will get a hair transplant to form a hairline, and then fill in the back with injections if and where necessary. Maybe HT surgeons will offer both. Sounds like it would save a lot of hassle. Once the hairline is rooted by HT, more HTs will be a thing of the past, just injections. That is real progress and reassuring for many of us considering their first HT.

Of course, if they can somehow ensure that only hair follicles are activated, rather than generating new ones, then this therapy would replace HTs entirely. They may also find a way to target the treatment so it forms a precise hairline anyway. Maybe they will be able to establish where the hairline used to be, and simply "trace" it. I don't know enough about dermatology though :)

[lpenergy]

First time poster to this board, and I normally try not let myself get "caught up" in treatments and I just try to live my life for the most part. I just found out about Replicel about a month ago, and I can honestly say that I am excited.

Anyways, Replicel traded 29,200 shares this past friday on no news. To put this in perspective, there was only 1 day in its stock trading history where it traded more shares, and this was on Sept 9, 2011 with 45,200 shares traded (per yahoo finance). Normally, it only has trading volume of about 3,800 shares. It could be nothing or it could be something. Additionally, the shares were purchased in blocks throughout the day, which is what a smart buyer would want to do in order to avoid driving the stock up immediately with a large purchase.

In stock market trading, prior to key events taking place such as earnings announcements, price and volume action tends to move ahead of the announcement, meaning that either news leaked somehow, or very savy investors correctly anticipated the results. Occasionally, news can leak, or perhaps some Georgian is now sporting a full head of hair and contacts his cousin living in U.S., and if this were the case, it may show up in share accumulation prior to study results release.

The CEO mentioned that the study participants were "overdosed", given millions and tens of millions of dermal sheath cup cells in order to prove safety. So, in my mind (Non-medical mind), if this technology would work at all, it would work on this study.

It is worth keeping an eye on the volume, and one can never be certain that investors with better knowledge are purchasing shares, but I usually go with the assumption that larger buyers tend to have better knowledge. It could also be that as we get closer to the release date of the study results, trading activity could be picking up as well.

Disclosure: I picked up 1,000 shares on Friday

[Maradona]

First time poster to this board, and I normally try not let myself get "caught up" in treatments and I just try to live my life for the most part. I just found out about Replicel about a month ago, and I can honestly say that I am excited.

Anyways, Replicel traded 29,200 shares this past friday on no news. To put this in perspective, there was only 1 day in its stock trading history where it traded more shares, and this was on Sept 9, 2011 with 45,200 shares traded (per yahoo finance). Normally, it only has trading volume of about 3,800 shares. It could be nothing or it could be something. Additionally, the shares were purchased in blocks throughout the day, which is what a smart buyer would want to do in order to avoid driving the stock up immediately with a large purchase.

In stock market trading, prior to key events taking place such as earnings announcements, price and volume action tends to move ahead of the announcement, meaning that either news leaked somehow, or very savy investors correctly anticipated the results. Occasionally, news can leak, or perhaps some Georgian is now sporting a full head of hair and contacts his cousin living in U.S., and if this were the case, it may show up in share accumulation prior to study results release.

The CEO mentioned that the study participants were "overdosed", given millions and tens of millions of dermal sheath cup cells in order to prove safety. So, in my mind (Non-medical mind), if this technology would work at all, it would work on this study.

It is worth keeping an eye on the volume, and one can never be certain that investors with better knowledge are purchasing shares, but I usually go with the assumption that larger buyers tend to have better knowledge. It could also be that as we get closer to the release date of the study results, trading activity could be picking up as well.

Disclosure: I picked up 1,000 shares on Friday

Don't get too excited bro. They only injected the cells in a specific area of the scalp like 2cm^2 area, so they don't have a full head of hair yet.

Imo, it will yield results in april, impressive ones depending where it was injected. This will attract investors and hopefully the company can go on and cure a NW7 because from my "Research" as a "hair loss expert" it will be good at making follicles more resistant to DHT and strengthen already minituarized follicles but to cure norwood 6 and 7s seems very unlikely.

[BoSox]

Did anybody notice the stock today? It dropped about 7%, should this be a concern? :/

[chrisis]

On volume of 1,500? That's like $3000 worth of trading?

if that scares you then you shouldn't be involved.

[2020]

On volume of 1,500? That's like $3000 worth of trading?

if that scares you then you shouldn't be involved.

^ exactly. Low volume = High volatility.

[NotBelievingIt]

Did anybody notice the stock today? It dropped about 7%, should this be a concern? :/

Did you notice the rest of the stock market?

Risk mode is "off" - so any risky assets (equities in general) are being sold.

Since its low volume, any selling pressure will make a big difference in price since the bid / ask spread is so high.

Likely some skittish newb home investor dumped the shares because honestly, 1500 shares is pocket change for anyone serious about holding the company for its future prospects and thus wouldn't think twice watching ~$3000 drop 7% in value.

[BoSox]

Sorry.. guess I have a lot to learn.

[chrisis]

Don't worry bosox. Just have conviction in your decision and wait until the results come out.

[ccmethinning]

92,000 shares dumped today.

[chrisis]

Shares aren't "dumped". If someone sold shares someone else bought them. The share price has fallen because asking/bidding price is lower.

[ccmethinning]

When there is a larger than normal sale, and the price of shares fall, there is necessarily more selling pressure than there is buying pressure, hence they were dumped.

[Maradona]

This is certainly discouraging news, 90 000 shares dumped , looks like insider trading to me.

that's like 200 k right there, somebody chickened out .

[lpenergy]

Yes, I saw that earlier today. It was all once, too, not what one would do if someone wanted to maximize their selling price. Also, sometimes an investor might have a different “risky” investment that they just had to have and decided to get out and this was money that could be invested in a different manner. We will have to keep an eye on volume and activity.
Maradona, I saw your question on Replicel’s Facebook page, it was a great question about the location of the testing – upper temples. It has really got me thinking a lot.
Okay, I am not 100% certain about this, but isn’t this supposed to be the most difficult spot to regrow hair. Even men with pretty full heads of hair will lose hair in this spot as they age. Minoxodil specifically states that it will not regrow in this region. So, why on earth would they have chosen this location?
Let’s examine a couple of scenario outcomes:
1) April results are good: Hair growth is achieved at some percentage level – let’s just assume 25%. By having the location in the upper temples, they further distinguish themselves from Minox and Propecia, their competitors. If you can truly regrow hair, why not demonstrate it an area that your current competitors have failed at and is difficult to achieve?

2) April results are bad: Replicel has failed at regrowth. Not only that, but due to the location that they selected they don’t know what it may have been like had they chosen an easier hair location to regrow hair. The stock crashes to .20/share and they cancel phase II trials not knowing what would have happened had they picked the vertex, top front, or areas that had only recently started to bald. Why in the world would they have gone this route, with it being very risky. The head scientists would never see their project through to fruition. They lose all their money when the shares crash to near zero. Not only that, they lose any prestige or standing they have in the scientific community.


I believe this makes it even more likely that they tested the procedure on someone prior to the 19 tested that we are waiting on the April results. In law, they say a good lawyer never asks a question he/she doesn’t already know the answer to. I think that applies here. Nobody in their right mind would pick the most difficult spot to regrow hair unless you were out there to prove something-something they already more or less knew the outcome of. From a business risk perspective, you generally demonstrate proof of concept on the easiest location/scenario, then go on to more difficult locations. This is a show-off statement-making proof of concept.

[2020]

The stock crashes to .20/share and they cancel phase II trials not knowing what would have happened had they picked the vertex....

didn't they already start recruiting subjects for Phase II trials?

[NotBelievingIt]

This is certainly discouraging news, 90 000 shares dumped , looks like insider trading to me.

that's like 200 k right there, somebody chickened out .

90,000 shares is about .6% of the shares available for ownership by non-institutions and non-insiders.

In other words, hardly anything traded hands.
-----

No offense, but your reaction is a prime example of why 99.995% of people should invest in index funds only *ESPECIALLY* when the stock we are talking about is a Baby Biotech Growth stock that doesn't even have a marketable product.

Even non-baby biotech growth stocks of established companies can have wild swings but ultimately mean nothing for the long term prospects. Take a look at Dendreon (ticker symbol DNDN) since it went public and try to imagine living through some of those swings.

[lpenergy]

didn't they already start recruiting subjects for Phase II trials?

They did start recruiting for Phase II, but it looks like they won't start injecting subjects until after the first trial is complete. If I were willing to get injected, and found out that phase I was a complete failure as far as regrowing hair, I am not sure that I would want to get injected all over my head so they can "see what happens". I am sure they could still fill the test slots, but people would be dropping out left and right.

That is why I highly doubt the people at Replicel said, "Gee whiz, just for the heck of it, let's see if we can get hair regrowth on the upper temples - I hope it works???"

[Maradona]

Yes, I saw that earlier today. It was all once, too, not what one would do if someone wanted to maximize their selling price. Also, sometimes an investor might have a different “risky” investment that they just had to have and decided to get out and this was money that could be invested in a different manner. We will have to keep an eye on volume and activity.
Maradona, I saw your question on Replicel’s Facebook page, it was a great question about the location of the testing – upper temples. It has really got me thinking a lot.
Okay, I am not 100% certain about this, but isn’t this supposed to be the most difficult spot to regrow hair. Even men with pretty full heads of hair will lose hair in this spot as they age. Minoxodil specifically states that it will not regrow in this region. So, why on earth would they have chosen this location?
Let’s examine a couple of scenario outcomes:
1) April results are good: Hair growth is achieved at some percentage level – let’s just assume 25%. By having the location in the upper temples, they further distinguish themselves from Minox and Propecia, their competitors. If you can truly regrow hair, why not demonstrate it an area that your current competitors have failed at and is difficult to achieve?

2) April results are bad: Replicel has failed at regrowth. Not only that, but due to the location that they selected they don’t know what it may have been like had they chosen an easier hair location to regrow hair. The stock crashes to .20/share and they cancel phase II trials not knowing what would have happened had they picked the vertex, top front, or areas that had only recently started to bald. Why in the world would they have gone this route, with it being very risky. The head scientists would never see their project through to fruition. They lose all their money when the shares crash to near zero. Not only that, they lose any prestige or standing they have in the scientific community.


I believe this makes it even more likely that they tested the procedure on someone prior to the 19 tested that we are waiting on the April results. In law, they say a good lawyer never asks a question he/she doesn’t already know the answer to. I think that applies here. Nobody in their right mind would pick the most difficult spot to regrow hair unless you were out there to prove something-something they already more or less knew the outcome of. From a business risk perspective, you generally demonstrate proof of concept on the easiest location/scenario, then go on to more difficult locations. This is a show-off statement-making proof of concept.

You read my mind bro, i was expecting an answer like the crown which is so much easier to regrow hair. But these replicel dudes picked up the most fucked up place to grow hair, if you can grow hair in the temples or if they show results in april, I think in my opinion that bastard called MPB has its days counted 5 10 years who cares(ok not 30 i'd be dead :D ) i just want this motherfucked killed.

I jumped out of my seat when I read their answer I waited in agony and they said temples, i was so happy because you gotta be really confident to take down the toughest spot of MPB.

Later I realized it sounds too fishy...temples? come on, if they wanna atract investors try the crown.

Apparently replicel didn't have the purpose to treat minituarized hair only either, they wanna GROW hair from scratch because we all know there are no follicles in the temples...there may be sweat...stem cells...but certainly follicles have been raped by MPB.

So mark my words guys, if replicel shows some results in april, then its successful.

If not, it's not really over.

[ccmethinning]

They did start recruiting for Phase II, but it looks like they won't start injecting subjects until after the first trial is complete. If I were willing to get injected, and found out that phase I was a complete failure as far as regrowing hair, I am not sure that I would want to get injected all over my head so they can "see what happens". I am sure they could still fill the test slots, but people would be dropping out left and right.

That is why I highly doubt the people at Replicel said, "Gee whiz, just for the heck of it, let's see if we can get hair regrowth on the upper temples - I hope it works???"

I guess the only people they allowed into the trial are NW3/NW4 (per posters at hairsite) so maybe they chose the temples because that is one of the only areas where it would be really noticeable on a NW3/NW4.

[NotBelievingIt]

They did start recruiting for Phase II, but it looks like they won't start injecting subjects until after the first trial is complete. If I were willing to get injected, and found out that phase I was a complete failure as far as regrowing hair, I am not sure that I would want to get injected all over my head so they can "see what happens". I am sure they could still fill the test slots, but people would be dropping out left and right.

Dunno about that.

Consider:

If they can regrow/grow hair at the crown, doesn't that imply regrowth/new growth in a donor area from a HT?

How about it. Over the course of a year or two you get both a Replicel treatment and then FUE into the temple...you get perpetual donor hair for transplants!

[sausage]

A month to go........lets hope it works.

I would not mind being a guinea pig for them in the next stage, but i guess everyone will be queueing up.

[NotBelievingIt]

A month to go........lets hope it works.

I would not mind being a guinea pig for them in the next stage, but i guess everyone will be queueing up.

:)

Same here. Every guy aware of Replicel and Histogen wants to be part of a trial.

But quite honestly, there should be some kind of mental health vetting process - because the guy might be in the placebo group, or the trial a failure...could his mental stability handle the dejection?

[Maradona]

:)

Same here. Every guy aware of Replicel and Histogen wants to be part of a trial.

But quite honestly, there should be some kind of mental health vetting process - because the guy might be in the placebo group, or the trial a failure...could his mental stability handle the dejection?

being part of the trial wont give you a full head of hair I think unless it's one of the rewards of being in the trial....they only inject the stuff in one specific area of the scalp like a 2cm square.

there isnt really a placebo group either, they inject the cells in one side and placebo on the other.


Btw, does anybody or spencer know the release date (exact one) of the results?

I heard from twitter it was late april dont know if its true.

[clandestine]

being part of the trial wont give you a full head of hair I think unless it's one of the rewards of being in the trial....they only inject the stuff in one specific area of the scalp like a 2cm square.

there isnt really a placebo group either, they inject the cells in one side and placebo on the other.


Btw, does anybody or spencer know the release date (exact one) of the results?

I heard from twitter it was late april dont know if its true.

First it was early March. Then, early April. Now, late April.

Beggars can't be choosers, but this is torture.

[sausage]

It probably pays well though and you would not have to do much.

[bananana]

First it was early March. Then, early April. Now, late April.

Beggars can't be choosers, but this is torture.

Well, officially - it was "April 2012", not late March, or any precise date in April. ;)

We are all very anxious about the results - but we also need to have patience.

[gmonasco]

It probably pays well though

I'm not sure it would, as the nature of the treatment doesn't seem to require that trial participants dedicate a lot of time or experience much discomfort, the factors on which payment is usually based.

[sausage]

I'm not sure it would, as the nature of the treatment doesn't seem to require that trial participants dedicate a lot of time or experience much discomfort, the factors on which payment is usually based.

I expect they would otherwise whats the point, there could potentially be risks involved.

Did you not hear about those tests 5-10 years ago where people blew up like balloons.

£1000 in my eyes would be well paid, if it simply involves a few injections and a few catch up days. But would not be surprised if they get more than that.

[Sogeking]

I'm not sure it would, as the nature of the treatment doesn't seem to require that trial participants dedicate a lot of time or experience much discomfort, the factors on which payment is usually based.
Sounds like a well written sarcasm to me if I've read correctly? :D
But the irony is there is a grain of truth to it :D.

On topic:
At first it was March as the month for trial results to be presented, but soon after it was changed to April.

What I fear the most is that all of this treatments just won't have good enough effectivnes.
I fear that if we take 51 FU per cm^2 as an average in frontal hairline that these treatments will get something as 10-15 FU per cm^2 on top of your scalp in average. Leaving you wanting more...

[Maradona]

Sounds like a well written sarcasm to me if I've read correctly? :D
But the irony is there is a grain of truth to it :D.

On topic:
At first it was March as the month for trial results to be presented, but soon after it was changed to April.

What I fear the most is that all of this treatments just won't have good enough effectivnes.
I fear that if we take 51 FU per cm^2 as an average in frontal hairline that these treatments will get something as 10-15 FU per cm^2 on top of your scalp in average. Leaving you wanting more...

Them delaying the release dates doesn't sound like good news : ( .

[gmonasco]

I expect they would otherwise whats the point, there could potentially be risks involved.

Yes, there are generally risks involved (even if they may be minor and rare) in any type of clinical testing, which is one reason why subjects are usually offered some form of compensation for participating. But the amount of that compensation is typically linked to what the subjects have to undergo during the course of the testing. If there's a good deal of discomfort involved in the administration or endurance of the treatment, or if participants have to give up a good deal of their time to report in and undergo batteries of examinations and tests to monitor the progress of the treatment and their general health, then they might expect to receive a higher compensation.

I don't know for sure, but I don't get the sense that those factors come into play much with the Replicel testing. Likely subjects are getting a few initial injections which probably aren't all that discomforting, then they're making occasional follow-up visits so their hair growth can be measured and their general health assessed. That doesn't seem to me to be a situation which would usually merit a particularly high rate of compensation.

[lpenergy]

Ok, so this cause of the delay has got me thinking about the cause. If it is true that they initially were going to report the results in early March, I imagine that this timeline estimate was purely timeline-based. The last participant's hair test location is measured, and the hairs are counted. It is pretty simple in my mind, just counting and reporting.

So, why the delay? My speculative mind has a few ideas:

1) Photo Delay: The results were good, but they are just waiting for some of the new hairs to grow out a little more to make for a better before and after photograph. Could it be possible that some of the effects were delayed, and waiting an additional couple of months could make an improved photo?

2) Uncooperative Participant: What if one of the participants became uncooperative or did not return for a follow-up? I would call this an "Administrative Delay".

3) Stock Sale Delay: I remember reading that most shares were locked up, but that on a quarterly basis, some shares could be released and sold. If this were the case, and the study results were not good, this would enable some large shareholders to get out prior to the announcement. Does someone know if this is true or can verify this?

4) More Analysis Delay: If results were bad to so-so, Replicel might need time to frame the results. They would need explanations to explain the results and have answers to their shareholders. This could involve additional scientific analysis.


Bottom line, there could be many reasons for the delay. If it pushes beyond April, something is clearly wrong. If Spencer were to interview Replicel prior to the release date of the results, I would want him to ask why they were initially planning on March and now it is pushed out approximately 60 days. Isn't it just as simple as counting hours in the test zone. Any surprises and results can be scrutinized and researched further over the coming months. I am not in the medical research industry, so I don't know what is normal.

[Maradona]

Ok, so this cause of the delay has got me thinking about the cause. If it is true that they initially were going to report the results in early March, I imagine that this timeline estimate was purely timeline-based. The last participant's hair test location is measured, and the hairs are counted. It is pretty simple in my mind, just counting and reporting.

So, why the delay? My speculative mind has a few ideas:

1) Photo Delay: The results were good, but they are just waiting for some of the new hairs to grow out a little more to make for a better before and after photograph. Could it be possible that some of the effects were delayed, and waiting an additional couple of months could make an improved photo?

2) Uncooperative Participant: What if one of the participants became uncooperative or did not return for a follow-up? I would call this an "Administrative Delay".

3) Stock Sale Delay: I remember reading that most shares were locked up, but that on a quarterly basis, some shares could be released and sold. If this were the case, and the study results were not good, this would enable some large shareholders to get out prior to the announcement. Does someone know if this is true or can verify this?

4) More Analysis Delay: If results were bad to so-so, Replicel might need time to frame the results. They would need explanations to explain the results and have answers to their shareholders. This could involve additional scientific analysis.


Bottom line, there could be many reasons for the delay. If it pushes beyond April, something is clearly wrong. If Spencer were to interview Replicel prior to the release date of the results, I would want him to ask why they were initially planning on March and now it is pushed out approximately 60 days. Isn't it just as simple as counting hours in the test zone. Any surprises and results can be scrutinized and researched further over the coming months. I am not in the medical research industry, so I don't know what is normal.

yeah but the delay is just a month, they never even mentioned an exact date only first quarter. I'm just following the guys saying that it was supposed to be in march now im reading it's late april. We are sounding like desesperate bald men lol, but we definitely are and should chill out on the release date it's not like histogen/follica at least.


Btw, spencer already contacted replicel for an interview before their results( he will also do it right after the results), so if you guys think it's a good idea, post here that you want this interview before the results are published.

I'm sure he is waiting for your response, if you want this interview or not. So Just post somewhere if you want it :).

God bless Spencer :o

[sausage]

As long as it isn't delayed again then thats fine. Only a couple of weeks til April :)

[lpenergy]

I was about to drop this post into the main discussion for Replicel, but it really relates more to the stock and may be of more limited interest.

I dug around a bit on the Private Placement recently announced. Initially, I was curious if this funding had any bearing on Phase II research, which might indicate undisclosed success of phase 1. I dug a bit through their financials, and it appears likely that this private equity placement is exactly as stated in the press release and was to meet “general working capital needs”.

What I was hoping for was an indication that this money would have no other purpose other than for phase II testing. On pg. 21 of the NBT research report, it states that "Replicel needs to complete a $5 to $10 million round of funding over the next 90-120 days to completely fund the company through Phase II trials." The research report was dated 12/3/2011. So, that time range would place the additional funding sometime in March. So, I decided to do a little cash analysis to determine if this money would be considered part of the $5-$10 million of funding for phase II testing. The fact that this funding has not happened yet seems consistent with their approximate 30 day delay of phase 1 results.

Cash Analysis:
Cash on hand 9/30/2011: $1,210,000 (Per Q3 2011 Balance Sheet)
Cash used by Ops (as of 9/30/2011): 2,470,414
Cash used by Ops (as of 3/31/2011): 963,914
Cash used / month = (2,470,414-963,914)/6 = $251,083

So, I get a burn rate a little different from the NBT research report, which showed a burn rate of $100,000 per month, which could be due to excluding the cost of the clinical trials. At any rate, if Replicel burned through their cash at $250k/month, they would have already run out of cash by now (unless they had an unannounced private placement since 9/30/2011). That may have been what the $99k was for provided at the end of February. However, some of their costs such as the cost to run the Clinical trial may be variable. The end result is that it seems that this initial private placement of $1.3 million was for general operations.

However, the statement says that Replicel plans on issuing additional tranches of equity financing over the next several weeks at the same terms as this tranche, which would be their execution of the Phase II funding. It would have no other purpose and would not be needed to meet their current cash needs. Additionally, it may be dependent upon successful phase 1 funding. I don’t know if this will be prior to the release date of the phase 1, but it will be worth keeping an eye on this funding.

[sickly_burnt_tree_forest]

I am so completely worried about the delay, i dont even care now about the stock prices anymore. i dont care if i have to sell my soul, god knows that hairloss has already taken it anyways...doesn anyone out there know if they were even able to grow one hair on a human head?

[Maradona]

I am so completely worried about the delay, i dont even care now about the stock prices anymore. i dont care if i have to sell my soul, god knows that hairloss has already taken it anyways...doesn anyone out there know if they were even able to grow one hair on a human head?

Why wouldn't they be able to grow hair? This type of procedure has been done by other companies. The problem lies whether or not this will make it past phase 2.

But phase 1 results will be a great indicator of where this treatment is heading to.

[greatjob!]

What delay does everyone keep referring to? I thought that the target release date was April 2012 all along, so they are right on track. Every thread is referring to some delay, maybe I'm missing something.

[Davey Jones]

REPCF is down to $1.75 a share. I've been considering buying. Setting up a ScottTrade account right now.

Is there anyone on here with an opinion of why the sudden few drops in price though? Maybe opinions involving reasons not to buy? Are people just getting antsy and jumping ship before the scheduled April announcement, which would lower the price? Or is there some public reason I'm not familiar with to suspect that Replicel will be shown to be ineffective?

I will also accept guesses of insider trading, people in the know getting out, which would be tragically disappointing. Seems like that would be mostly speculative, but if you have reason to believe that (via knowledge of the market or some inside knowledge on your own part), you should tell us!

If you are so kind to answer, please frame it in a way that everyone (even an idiot) could understand. Not that I'm an idiot, but I am fairly stock market retarded.

[sausage]

REPCF is down to $1.75 a share. I've been considering buying. Setting up a ScottTrade account right now.


What was it before $1.75 a share?

If a share price is dropping it means ppl r selling their shares.

Why....I don't know.

[The Alchemist]

REPCF is down to $1.75 a share. I've been considering buying. Setting up a ScottTrade account right now.

Is there anyone on here with an opinion of why the sudden few drops in price though? Maybe opinions involving reasons not to buy? Are people just getting antsy and jumping ship before the scheduled April announcement, which would lower the price? Or is there some public reason I'm not familiar with to suspect that Replicel will be shown to be ineffective?

I will also accept guesses of insider trading, people in the know getting out, which would be tragically disappointing. Seems like that would be mostly speculative, but if you have reason to believe that (via knowledge of the market or some inside knowledge on your own part), you should tell us!

If you are so kind to answer, please frame it in a way that everyone (even an idiot) could understand. Not that I'm an idiot, but I am fairly stock market retarded.


It's a very thinly traded stock (not many shares are traded on any given day) so, any type of trade activity can affect the price quite dramatically. Even at 1.75$ the stock is still well within it's trading range, so, i wouldn't try to read too much into fluctuations one way or the other. At least not yet.

[chrisis]

if you have reason to believe that (via knowledge of the market or some inside knowledge on your own part), you should tell us!


Insiders don't post their knowledge on public forums.

[Maradona]

Insiders don't post their knowledge on public forums.

Damn I wish I had bought the stock yesterday. 1.75 lucky dogs who bought the stock yesterday.

[534623]

Damn I wish I had bought the stock yesterday. 1.75 lucky dogs who bought the stock yesterday.

you should immediately buy this stock. if you buy, the value may eventually increase, what means, that replicel's procedure will eventually work. :rolleyes:

[gmonasco]

you should immediately buy this stock. if you buy, the value may eventually increase, what means, that replicel's procedure will eventually work.

Wish I'd thought of that. Oh, wait, I did:

http://www.baldtruthtalk.com/showpost.php?p=58463&postcount=1015

[gmonasco]

Replicel stock is up today with about 61,000 shares traded, which is quite a bit for that company. (The average volume is 7,152.)

[neversaynever]

sharp rise between 3pm and 4pm after dropping the whole day. Not sure if that means anything.....

[gmonasco]

sharp rise between 3pm and 4pm after dropping the whole day. Not sure if that means anything.....

That's when the kids get out of school ...

[ccmethinning]

That's when the kids get out of school ...

Kids don't have the kind of money that was spent today.

http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/1285/repcf.png

[gmonasco]

Kids don't have the kind of money that was spent today.

Some do:

http://www.calbuzz.com/wp-content/uploads/richie-rich-32-235x300.jpg

[VictimOfDHT]

Can someone please tell me what the best way to buy stocks in canada (online) is. I'm hoping someone in canada can answer this. Is scotiaitrade good ?

[lpenergy]

Today's action was interesting and a good follow-up to yesterday. From a technical perspective, they buying action was positive in that often times early morning activity is generally understood to be driven by smaller retail investors while afternoon activity is generally understood to be driven by professionals and larger players.

Still, this is a very small stock and the volume today is still not that significant. Also, volume pick up would be expected as Replicel nears their announcement date.

One can hope that retail investors are getting chickened out and selling in the morning and those in the know are picking up shares in the afternoon as has been the case the last two days. Keep an eye on for the next couple of days.

[lpenergy]

One other catalyst I saw. It looks like there are a bunch of the "penny stock companies" and "momentum" stock investing services that are published reports on Replicel in the last couple of days in addition to NBT. Here are a couple for example:

http://www.trade4all.com/view_newsletters.php?email_id=41502&thetitle=Our+Next+HUGE+Winner+-+REPCF&desc=...

http://stockreads.com/Stock-Newsletter.aspx?id=58687&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+StockNewsletters+%28Stock+New sletters%29

If just a few people that are into penny stock investing start buying stock, that can be another explanation for today's activity.

[ccmethinning]

One other catalyst I saw. It looks like there are a bunch of the "penny stock companies" and "momentum" stock investing services that are published reports on Replicel in the last couple of days in addition to NBT. Here are a couple for example:

http://www.trade4all.com/view_newsletters.php?email_id=41502&thetitle=Our+Next+HUGE+Winner+-+REPCF&desc=...

http://stockreads.com/Stock-Newsletter.aspx?id=58687&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+StockNewsletters+%28Stock+New sletters%29

If just a few people that are into penny stock investing start buying stock, that can be another explanation for today's activity.

Man, RepliCel paying for all these stock ads is quite unsettling. I could tolerate NBT, although Tobin Smith is a hack, he at least has some credibility. These though seem like the kind of scam stock e-mails that end up in my spam folder. If their procedure is gonna work, why pay some penny stock blogs to pump your stock just 2 weeks before the "big reveal"? If it works, it will be on the front page of Yahoo finance in an article written by an objective journalist and every retail investor in the world will know about it.

[gmonasco]

If their procedure is gonna work, why pay some penny stock blogs to pump your stock just 2 weeks before the "big reveal"?

Because it likely isn't going to be a "big reveal"; it's just going to be a determination of whether there's enough potential to merit continuing with more Phase II trials, where plenty of other treatments have crashed and burned.

[ccmethinning]

Because it likely isn't going to be a "big reveal"; it's just going to be a determination of whether there's enough potential to merit continuing with more Phase II trials, where plenty of other treatments have crashed and burned.

NBT could just be blowing smoke, but they get their talking points straight from RepliCel. Two of their recent articles use the term "big reveal" and reference a media tour.

http://www.cloudinvestor.com/report/bloomberg-says-it-best-the-big-business-of-hair-loss

http://cloudinvestor.com/report/all-19-subjects-in-replicels-clinical-trial-complete-first-phase

[yeahyeahyeah]

NBT could just be blowing smoke, but they get their talking points straight from RepliCel. Two of their recent articles use the term "big reveal" and reference a media tour.

http://www.cloudinvestor.com/report/bloomberg-says-it-best-the-big-business-of-hair-loss

http://cloudinvestor.com/report/all-19-subjects-in-replicels-clinical-trial-complete-first-phase

I think they are onto something tbh.

Imagine HOW EMBARRASSING it would be if it turns out to be bullshit?

Think about it.

[gmonasco]

NBT could just be blowing smoke, but they get their talking points straight from RepliCel. Two of their recent articles use the term "big reveal" and reference a media tour.

Something that's a "big reveal" to stock pumpers/speculators isn't necessarily so to the mainstream news media.

We've all seen how news stories about "cures for baldness" come and go: they hit the news cycle for a day or so, and then they disappear. Without some dramatic visual evidence to show off (like B/A pictures of a NW6 turned NW2), I don't see Replicel's results getting much more play than any of those other stories, no matter how the trials turn out -- no dramatic visual evidence is going to come out of injecting the temples of a handful of test subjects.

[gmonasco]

Imagine HOW EMBARRASSING it would be if it turns out to be bullshit?

Probably not so much. Other than guys on Internet hair loss forums, some stock speculators, and those involved in a very specialized area of the medical industry, hardly anyone is paying much attention to Replicel right now.

[lpenergy]

I just heard from Heather at Replicel. Here is what she said:


"Good Afternoon Mr. (named removed),

The deadline to file the 2011 Annual Report is April 29th. The Company is on track to file on or before that date.



Kind Regards,



Heather"


My theory is that the trial results will be contained in the Annual report. As most companies do not release or file over the weekend, that could put it back to April 27th. Additionally, from an information sensitivity standpoint, it may make sense to have it released prior to having it included in the auditor-reviewed annual report, as the chance of a leak would be decreased. That is purely a guess on my part, however.

[gmonasco]

Replicel stock is down quite a bit today (from $2.15 to $1.80) on considerable volume.

[NotBelievingIt]

Replicel stock is down quite a bit today (from $2.15 to $1.80) on considerable volume.

..and you posted too early, it only lost about 1% at the end of the day :)

So its actually a tremendously good sign that there are buyers waiting to scoop it up under $2.

[gmonasco]

The volume has been comparatively huge the last few days, but the closing price of the stock has hardly changed at all.

[ccmethinning]

http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/880/repcf419.png

Mixed day for RepliCel today. BIG opening volume with a relatively stable price. Then a drop on big volume and a rebound on moderate volume. There was more volume on the downward moves than there was on the upward ones.

[uninformed]

Stop analysizing stock movements and volumes they indicate nothing but speculations and/or opportunists trying to grab some quick bucks....

at this point of time anyway

[lpenergy]

What I see is a whole lot of churning going on. Current owners of shares are selling and new buyers are coming in. That is why we have higher volume, yet the shares are not going anywhere.

So far, Replicel has paid the following companies to push info on their stock:

Blue Wave Advisors 45,000
TooNiceStocks 33,000

Link:
http://stockpromoters.com/News-Letters.aspx?symbol=REPCF


This in addition to NBT. I am not an expert on penny stocks, don't normally invest in them. I have made an exception on this one. I don't know, maybe this is something that an unknown company needs to do so that they don't end up announcing their discovery to the wind and realize that the only people who know about it are a few chat room members.

Taking a glass is half full view, if there is greater visibility out there for Replicel, maybe some people don't necessarily buy the stock immediately, but have it on their watch list, and if results are good, and the stock takes off a bit, there could be additional buyers of the stock.

[gmonasco]

TapImmune (OTC: TPIV), RepliCel Life Sciences (OTC: REPCF) and American Fiber Green Products (AFBG) are three small cap stocks (the first two being biotech stocks and the last being an eco-friendly green stock) that have recently been the subject of promotions and hence, could use a reality check. After all, paid promotions can work both ways as they send a stock upward thanks to mentions in investment newsletters and investor alerts but then gravity forces the stock back down to earth unless the companies promoted are actually viable. So can small cap stocks TapImmune (TPIV), RepliCel Life Sciences (REPCF) and American Fiber Green Products (AFBG) move beyond paid promotions and stand on their own feet or should investors just give all three a pass? Here is a reality check to help you decide:

RepliCel Life Sciences is developing a scientific technology that has the potential to become the world's first, minimally invasive, permanent solution for hair loss in men and women. According to various disclosures, various $33k, $40k and $45k transactions have been paid to promote RepliCel Life Sciences. However and on Monday, RepliCel Life Sciences only rose 0.49% to $2.06 (REPCF has a 52 week trading range of $1.60 to $3.50 a share) for a market cap of $88.89 million but the stock is down 12.3% since the start of the year as well as over the past year. Hence and so far, the promotions appear to not be helping RepliCel Life Sciences just yet while the stock also has just announced the closing of a private placement where it issued 430,033 units at a price of $1.50 per unit for gross proceeds of $645,050. Investors should be aware that RepliCel Life Sciences has reported no revenues; net losses C$2.54M (2010), C$0.56M (2009) and C$0.02M (2008) for the past three years and net losses of C$0.89M (most recent reporting quarter), C$1.81M and C$0.71M for the first three quarters of 2011; and had C$1.21M in cash and short-term investments to cover C$0.27M in current liabilities at the end of last September. Nevertheless and if RepliCel Life Sciences does find or have a cure or permanent solution for hair loss, the stock won’t need any promotions as it will surge on its own merits.

http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/Promoted-Small-Cap-Biotech-or-Green-Stocks-Needing-a-Reality-Check-TapImmune-TPIV-RepliCel-Life-Sciences-REPCF-American-Fiber-Green-Products-AFBG/s/via/3414/article/view/p/mid/1/id/647/

[PvH]

i pray all these hair loss experts on TBT takes matter into their own hands to come up with a solution instead of just digging and digging and digging then trashing each other with dirt.

[NotBelievingIt]

Wee! Huge volume and a big price jump today.

[534623]

This is certainly discouraging news, 90 000 shares dumped , looks like insider trading to me.

that's like 200 k right there, somebody chickened out .

somebody bought them rather cheap at the right moment. and if "somebody" could sell most of them in the past trading week or on friday...then...not bad :rolleyes:

[The Alchemist]

somebody bought them rather cheap at the right moment. and if "somebody" could sell most of them in the past trading week or on friday...then...not bad :rolleyes:


Yeah, they must have really made out on the 90K shares traded. Haha, you've got to be kidding me...

[534623]

Yeah, they must have really made out on the 90K shares traded. Haha, you've got to be kidding me...

who is saying "they"? I said "somebody" ... and not "they".

[The Alchemist]

who is saying "they"? I said "somebody" ... and not "they".

What's the difference? The amount of money traded was ridiculously small.

[534623]

What's the difference? The amount of money traded was ridiculously small.
really?
if somebody bought on march 3 about 90000 shares for about ~$2.0 per share and could sell them easily last week or on friday (and he could easily!) for about ~2.7 per share - yup, about $60k gain is a ridiculously small gain for "somebody" who actually expected essentially more than just ~2.7 per share. i agree.

[The Alchemist]

really?
if somebody bought on march 3 about 90000 shares for about ~$2.0 per share and could sell them easily last week or on friday (and he could easily!) for about ~2.7 per share - yup, about $60k gain is a ridiculously small gain for "somebody" who actually expected essentially more than just ~2.7 per share. i agree.

Yeah, dude! 60K that's biggggg money. It was all an orchestrated fraud, for the massive sum of 60K. You nailed it Sherlock!

[NotBelievingIt]

Yeah, dude! 60K that's biggggg money. It was all an orchestrated fraud, for the massive sum of 60K. You nailed it Sherlock!

lol

some people have no grasp of the sheer amount of money traded hands everyday on the open stock market in stocks, not to mention options and other instruments. Thats not even talking about the derivatives market that is totally unregulated...

Also, one man isn't going to be able to offload 90k shares in such a thinly traded stock without seriously moving the market - against him. It would take *days* to do that and he wouldn't get them all out at one price either, he'd get various size lots at various prices.

[Davey Jones]

Well, I'm worried that I should have sold at 2.60, but now that it's in the mid-1.00's, I might as well ride thise train all the way to the station. No point in selling now, go big or go home and all that jazz.

[The Alchemist]

Well, I'm worried that I should have sold at 2.60, but now that it's in the mid-1.00's, I might as well ride thise train all the way to the station. No point in selling now, go big or go home and all that jazz.

When you invest in very thinly traded stocks you've got to be prepared for a bumpy ride. So few shares are exchanged per day that even a small handful of investors selling can put massive downward pressure on the stock price. It can swing back the other way just as easily.

Not trying to sway you one way or other. But, if you invested in them because you believe in their team and the science, then there is no reason to get out. The fundamentals are the same as they were a week ago. The trial data will be the make or break. Not some loud mouth talk show host who made some ill advised comments in a news letter.

[gmonasco]

When you invest in very thinly traded stocks you've got to be prepared for a bumpy ride.

Indeed. Ninety minutes ago Replicel stock plunged to around $1.50 per share, and now it's back up to $2.00 (about where it started the day).