RepliCel - Spencer Kobren's Follow Up Interview With CEO David Hall

[tbtadmin]

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[RichardDawkins]

Nice interview but i get the strange feeling that they tested this stuff on humans (themselves) already :-)

Anyway its nice to see someone talking about a new standard with micro surgery on cellular basis.

And then people tell me that scalp tattoos are the next best thing :rolleyes:

Btw RepliCel and not RepilCel :-)

[Bronson]

Good to know they're not just going through the FDA and 2015 isn't set in stone. I wouldn't mind flying to China in 2014. Of course that could also mean it comes out later than 2015, I guess like them we just don't know, hopefully the results in March will be better than expected.

[RichardDawkins]

As he said the trials could also stop earlier for good or bad reasons.

In a good case they see what they want a few months before then they could safe time. I think they are really onto something to stop and reverse hair loss.

Its always a good sign when they dont even start to talk about " bla bla used in transplantation" and rather encourage the surgeons to pursue new techniques.

20% increase is pretty damn good, i think its around 1 to 2 NW scales better. Like NW7 to NW5 and etc. Also it can strenghten the donor area as well.

I also think that its permanent because cells keep the good and useful informations rather then the bad ones if got the choice

[HairTalk]

I think most persons' curiosities currently hinge, as they should, on whether this process is respectably efficacious. At the moment, we do not know it is, and it's important to keep that in mind through all this talk of whether RepliCel can hit the market "sooner than 2015."

[BoSox]

Replicel will exceed 20%, easy.

[HairTalk]

Replicel will exceed 20%, easy.

I wish everyone who wets his pants with no evidence would just go away. Neither you nor anyone else right now has a shred of evidence regarding the efficacy of RepliCel in treating hairloss in human beings, and no amount of wishful thinking amounts to anything.

[RichardDawkins]

And i wish that all the panic producing people like you would go as well.

[CVAZBAR]

And i wish that all the panic producing people like you would go as well.

Have to agree with this.

[BoSox]

Have to agree with this.

I agree as well

[howardroarke]

I dream of the day when I could go to a street hair transplant surgeon in my country to get injections on my head and my hair would grow as thick as a cloud.I would go to the guy who keeps reminding me of my balding and say "Go **** yourself " ..No kidding

[krewel]

Waiting for that day, haha.

[RichardDawkins]

The thing which speaks in favor for Replicel is the mouse study where they grew hair on spots, where no hairs should grew at all.

Also they had different growing rates with different types of DP cells, which shows that also ARI can be on the right track and others so

[krewel]

The thing which speaks in favor for Replicel is the mouse study where they grew hair on spots, where no hairs should grew at all.

Also they had different growing rates with different types of DP cells, which shows that also ARI can be on the right track and others so

Yes, and I think it was u who said they probably already tested it on themselves. They supposably did, there would be no way a CEO would claim he'd be sure that they will reach at least 20% regrowth if he did not have any clue about the results of this trial. This stuff is really exciting.

[Follicle Death Row]

Surely they will exceed 20%. I'm pretty confident of that. If they had any reservations about it not beating finasteride's supposed 20% they wouldn't even bother pursuing this. It should be substantially better.

[Penny Stock]

Being that Rolf Hoffman, did the Macrophotography for the Histrogen trials.

http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/2050/unledju.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/836/unledju.jpg/)

Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)



Excerpt from http://sdcasea.com/PDF/Gail_K_Naughton_pub.pdf

And we know Replicel have begun their follow ups, one could assume
that the "fully confident" comment made by David Hall, might have come from some very positive interim results.

And yes I realize its a double blinded trial, but there are only 19 subjects, your going to notice if there is hair where it wasn't present before.

[Kiwi]

Aderans launched phase 2 in 2008, have just hit 300 subjects, and still dont expect results until 2012. Replicel have not even started phase 2.

Anybody that knows simple mathmatical addition can work out what that means. It means that Replicel are years off. If they start next year that puts em at 2016/17.

Also I think its a maybe about them testing it on themselves first. That is stupid. A scientist who knows the potential to get, oh you know, that lil ole thing called cancer!, is going to try it on his own best friend and wife first.

Also why didnt Spencer ask him a basic question like, have you seen hair growing back yet with your own two eyes? What is your gut feeling?

I was hoping for more of that :P

[Kampung101]

Aderans launched phase 2 in 2008, have just hit 300 subjects, and still dont expect results until 2012. Replicel have not even started phase 2.

Anybody that knows simple mathmatical addition can work out what that means. It means that Replicel are years off. If they start next year that puts em at 2016/17.

Also I think its a maybe about them testing it on themselves first. That is stupid. A scientist who knows the potential to get, oh you know, that lil ole thing called cancer!, is going to try it on his own best friend and wife first.

Also why didnt Spencer ask him a basic question like, have you seen hair growing back yet with your own two eyes? What is your gut feeling?

I was hoping for more of that :P

It depends on how many participants are in the trials. Replicel's phase 2 trials I think will have 100 participants, which will require less time than say Aderans that has considerably more participants in the trial.

As for Spencer not asking that question, he most likely would not get an answer even if he asked. Hall has to answer to shareholders and they decide what info will be released to the public, and they definitely wouldn't want the official spokesperson to make any type of statements about efficacy (on a trial that is mostly designed to determine safety) before the official data has been collected (and rightfully so).

[Bronson]

Aderans launched phase 2 in 2008, have just hit 300 subjects, and still dont expect results until 2012. Replicel have not even started phase 2.

Anybody that knows simple mathmatical addition can work out what that means. It means that Replicel are years off. If they start next year that puts em at 2016/17.

Also I think its a maybe about them testing it on themselves first. That is stupid. A scientist who knows the potential to get, oh you know, that lil ole thing called cancer!, is going to try it on his own best friend and wife first.

Also why didnt Spencer ask him a basic question like, have you seen hair growing back yet with your own two eyes? What is your gut feeling?

I was hoping for more of that :P

I don't know why you're making assumptions about the release date, not sure what your simple math is telling you. Since Replicel isn't adding anything to the process, just using your own cells, I think the clinical trials will be shorter than what is typical in the medical community. But I agree, the idea that they've used it on themselves or someone else without documenting it is dumb, if they were that unprofessional I wouldn't trust them to begin with.

[Bronson]

I dream of the day when I could go to a street hair transplant surgeon in my country to get injections on my head and my hair would grow as thick as a cloud.I would go to the guy who keeps reminding me of my balding and say "Go **** yourself " ..No kidding

You realize you could tell that guy to go **** himself anyway, right? Just point out something about his looks.

[Jundam]

I don't know why you're making assumptions about the release date, not sure what your simple math is telling you. Since Replicel isn't adding anything to the process, just using your own cells, I think the clinical trials will be shorter than what is typical in the medical community. But I agree, the idea that they've used it on themselves or someone else without documenting it is dumb, if they were that unprofessional I wouldn't trust them to begin with.

Why would it be stupid? As David Hall has pointed out in probably every interview he has given there is absolutely no evidence or logical reason to believe a treatment of this nature can induce cancer, in fact everything in the literature points to it being completely harmless. And here's a fun fact; Scientists are suckers for evidence and logical reasoning.

Also, they're not injecting unsuspecting victims with a chemical concoction or performing experimental surgery on their kitchen table with a scissor and a stapler. If they did test this on humans while they were testing it on animals then they would've used the exact same process that they are using on the patients in the current clinical trials. So, assuming this treatment could potentially be dangerous, injecting one or two people with it before they begun clinical trials would actually put less people at risk than immediately going into clinical trials where 20 people would be exposed to the potential risk of it.

That said, there is no evidence or logical reason to believe there is any risk to it.

[Kiwi]

I don't know why you're making assumptions about the release date, not sure what your simple math is telling you. Since Replicel isn't adding anything to the process, just using your own cells, I think the clinical trials will be shorter than what is typical in the medical community. But I agree, the idea that they've used it on themselves or someone else without documenting it is dumb, if they were that unprofessional I wouldn't trust them to begin with.

Why not make assumptions about the date? That is all that they are doing. Everybody is making assumptions and I want to explore the practicalities with you lot to see what we can figure out.

Unfortunately Aderans are also using your own cells and it took them 4 years.

Totally glad you agree with me abou the professionalism. I was thinking about this earlier today - do I want to be taking a medication that has been tested on 20 people or 300 people.

But thats just me. Everybody here is free to do what they like and I'm just putting out my thoughts so new readers don't get too excited... yet...

I guess the best thing about this thread is that when I started reading this site and others about 4 years ago there were no solutions like these ones that were this close. None.

[Kiwi]

Why would it be stupid? As David Hall has pointed out in probably every interview he has given there is absolutely no evidence or logical reason to believe a treatment of this nature can induce cancer, in fact everything in the literature points to it being completely harmless. And here's a fun fact; Scientists are suckers for evidence and logical reasoning.

Also, they're not injecting unsuspecting victims with a chemical concoction or performing experimental surgery on their kitchen table with a scissor and a stapler. If they did test this on humans while they were testing it on animals then they would've used the exact same process that they are using on the patients in the current clinical trials. So, assuming this treatment could potentially be dangerous, injecting one or two people with it before they begun clinical trials would actually put less people at risk than immediately going into clinical trials where 20 people would be exposed to the potential risk of it.

That said, there is no evidence or logical reason to believe there is any risk to it.

That is the stupidest ****ing shit I've read all day. It actually got more stupid each paragraph.

Dude seriously before you talk about science on this site you should start reading some scientific journals. You have no idea.

I know you want your hair back, so do I, but grow up.

[BMT]

Interesting.

THe 20% figure is very low. Adding 20% to a norwood 5 won't make a great visable difference.

For this technology to be a real advancement, they need to compete with hair tranplants.

As far as i understand, Relicel are dosing up in the first trial, to test for efficacy. If they get 20% improvement after a large dose, id say its a big fail, even though they might be able to go forward. Just means they need to do a hell of a lot of tweaks before it gets to market.

Another company Cosmo have already done phase 1 trials and results show 100% thickening of hair follicles and a 75% increase in hair count with thier topical DHT competitive inhibitor CB 03 01. They are currently in phase 2 trials and if successful will release something around 2015/2016.

So Replicel doesn't just have to compete with Finasteride, that will almost be 20 years old when this technology comes out. I beleive for us to get excited we need to see haircounts improve out of sight - way beyond 20%. Especially if the cost rivals a hair transplant.

I hope thats what Replicel must be aiming for.

[krewel]

Oh dear... Why do you bump in this thread, which is about an interview you didn't even listen to. Replicel's target IS NOT 20%. Please, listen to the interview.. I don't want to explain it again...

[RichardDawkins]

They use 20% as an indicator if ts worth to pursue further good god, some people here are really geting on my nerves.

hair loss seems to be solvd in a near future and now people here bickering about " ohhhhh only 60% regeneration there is another company who had 63%"

Btw 20% on a NW5 would make a difference :rolleyes: if the hair is permanent you are a NW3 or so after that and then you could use a hair transplant as a filler for the rest and ou are good to go

[Follicle Death Row]

Yeah CB 03 01 had very successful results. Sounds infinitely better than finasteride. The more treatments coming the better.

[Kampung101]

Totally glad you agree with me abou the professionalism. I was thinking about this earlier today - do I want to be taking a medication that has been tested on 20 people or 300 people.


You do realize that by the end of Replicel's trials (if all goes well) they'll have tested this on more than just 20 people, right?

[Kampung101]

Yeah CB 03 01 had very successful results. Sounds infinitely better than finasteride. The more treatments coming the better.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but is that the anti-androgen topical treatment (that works only on DHT thats in the scalp) that is currently undergoing clinical trials?

[Jundam]

That is the stupidest ****ing shit I've read all day. It actually got more stupid each paragraph.

Dude seriously before you talk about science on this site you should start reading some scientific journals. You have no idea.

I know you want your hair back, so do I, but grow up.

So you think the third paragraph, stating that there is no evidence or logical reason to suspect this treatment poses any threat to a patient's health, is dumb? I suppose this means you know something that is not recorded in the scientific literature then? Please, do share.

I have no idea what my lack of hair, or rather my imminent loss of hair, has to do with what I wrote. I was merely arguing the possibility that they might have conducted tests on humans while they were studying the effects of their treatment in animals. I have never said they did, nor that I think they should have, I have simply argued that it would not have been stupid to do so. The possibility of proving or disproving a concept before entering the rigorous and expensive process of a 3-phased clinical trial will either confirm your hopes or save you a lot of money. It may be unethical, but it is not stupid. You seem to be though.

[DepressedByHairLoss]

I think the 2016-2017 release date might be logical projection for North America (since they have to contend with the corrupt FDA), but I really think it will be released much sooner in other countries. Hell, that's why they're conducting their clinical trials overseas. The trials really should be shorter since this treatment is entirely autologous. The reason that Aderans's autologous treatment is taking so long is because they weren't getting any results, not because it wasn't safe. What Replicel has, I believe, is a lot more promising than Aderans.
Yeah, Replicel is definitely looking to exceed the 20% hair regrowth mark; they wouldn't put something out that is simply equal to the shit treatments that are out there today. They are just using 20% as a benchmark so when their hopefully-great results come out, they can say that their treatment far exceeds what is out there today. And btw, I don't believe for a second that finasteride produces 20% regrowth; that's about as false as Rogaine's claim of 85% of men that use it achieve hair regrowth.
That's great news with CB 03 01; I wasn't aware of that.

[BMT]

Oh dear... Why do you bump in this thread, which is about an interview you didn't even listen to. Replicel's target IS NOT 20%. Please, listen to the interview.. I don't want to explain it again...

I didn't say thier target was 20% regrowth. I just said that if they dose up in phase one to see the potential of the science, and they only get around 20% regrowth - then we're a long way off. Sure they can go back and make changes, but its not a 'home run' as they say. I could be wrong about that, but my impressions was that in one of the interviews he said that they are going to give large doses to know if its safe, and they should know pretty much efficacy after phase one.

Im very positive about this too - but unlike histogens phase 1 trials i really hope we see something substantial - along the lines of what what many think is the potential for this. Then if they do, its a race to the finish line :)

[Follicle Death Row]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but is that the anti-androgen topical treatment (that works only on DHT thats in the scalp) that is currently undergoing clinical trials?

Correct. It's actually going to come out a year earlier as an acne treatment I believe but you can be sure that there will be people getting it off label and rubbing the acne cream into their scalps. That may well have some positive effect. 17 alpha propionate I think is the chemical. Some people have been trying to make their own concoction.

[Bronson]

Why would it be stupid? As David Hall has pointed out in probably every interview he has given there is absolutely no evidence or logical reason to believe a treatment of this nature can induce cancer, in fact everything in the literature points to it being completely harmless. And here's a fun fact; Scientists are suckers for evidence and logical reasoning.

Also, they're not injecting unsuspecting victims with a chemical concoction or performing experimental surgery on their kitchen table with a scissor and a stapler. If they did test this on humans while they were testing it on animals then they would've used the exact same process that they are using on the patients in the current clinical trials. So, assuming this treatment could potentially be dangerous, injecting one or two people with it before they begun clinical trials would actually put less people at risk than immediately going into clinical trials where 20 people would be exposed to the potential risk of it.

That said, there is no evidence or logical reason to believe there is any risk to it.

The reason it would be stupid is that despite there being no evidence of safety issues when using your own cells, that doesn't mean there will never be safety issues for that type of procedure. They're not going to risk lawsuits and the end of their careers just because they were too impatient to undergo an official trial with signed waivers saying they won't be sued in case of bad side effects. As eager as they are to find a cure, they're not fanatics who will ingest or rub anything on themselves or other people the way I've read about on some forums.

Even with a signed waiver they could still be sued for bad side effects, I can't imagine they'd try it unofficially and risk destroying the entire company.

But back to the whole release date, I don't know when this stuff is going to come out, it may be 2020 for all I know, but why give people the anxiety of saying it'll be later than what the actual experts are predicting (2015)? No one here knows shit about when this will come out, but if we're going to be waiting either way, why not be positive and give yourself less anxiety by sticking with 2015?

[Kiwi]

The reason it would be stupid is that despite there being no evidence of safety issues when using your own cells, that doesn't mean there will never be safety issues for that type of procedure. They're not going to risk lawsuits and the end of their careers just because they were too impatient to undergo an official trial with signed waivers saying they won't be sued in case of bad side effects. As eager as they are to find a cure, they're not fanatics who will ingest or rub anything on themselves or other people the way I've read about on some forums.

Even with a signed waiver they could still be sued for bad side effects, I can't imagine they'd try it unofficially and risk destroying the entire company.

But back to the whole release date, I don't know when this stuff is going to come out, it may be 2020 for all I know, but why give people the anxiety of saying it'll be later than what the actual experts are predicting (2015)? No one here knows shit about when this will come out, but if we're going to be waiting either way, why not be positive and give yourself less anxiety by sticking with 2015?

As a business owner and a avid reader of New Scientist and Scientific America of over 15 years - I agree completely.

This is precisely why Jundam's comments are dumb. Sorry for ranting last night Jundam. But what you suggest sadly isnt inline with the realities of this stuff...

p.s. I know 100 x more about how this stuff works then you do - so there! ;)

[PatientlyWaiting]

I'll be like 27-29 when this stuff is available to me, depending on when it comes out. Damn.

[headlikeafuckingorange]

I'll be like 27-29 when this stuff is available to me, depending on when it comes out. Damn.

Same, could keep most of my NW3 hair until then though which is promising?

[PatientlyWaiting]

Same, could keep most of my NW3 hair until then though which is promising?

Yeah, I guess. As long as the treatment gives more hair.

[CVAZBAR]

I dont see anything wrong with what Jundam said. As a matter of fact, this has been brought up before in TBT Show. Replicel has real scientist behind this and if they claim there is no evidence stating it's dangerous, I'm not sure why it's dumb to assume they could have tried it before. I rather believe a scientist than someone who reads about science. I guess it's like Spencer says, some dudes in the forum think they know it all.

[Pate]

There was no evidence thalidomide was dangerous either, and look what happened to that. Sometimes an unknown mechanism can cause harm.

And thalidomide is partly why we go through such long trial period developing new treatments these days. Even today, these things happen: look up TGN1412 on Wiki and see what happened to the six people who were in that trial. It was 100% safe in animals at a dose 500 times stronger, yet all six humans now face cancer and a lifetime of immune disorders.

Replicel are following good clinical practice. Even though the treatment is autologous we KNOW that some Wnt proteins are associated with cancer and we don't know for sure what will happen. Absence of evidence does not equal evidence of absence.

So I don't begrudge them the time for the trials. What I would hate to see is Replicel being held up by bureaucracy and red tape at the FDA.

[Jundam]

As a business owner and a avid reader of New Scientist and Scientific America of over 15 years - I agree completely.

This is precisely why Jundam's comments are dumb. Sorry for ranting last night Jundam. But what you suggest sadly isnt inline with the realities of this stuff...

p.s. I know 100 x more about how this stuff works then you do - so there! ;)

Yes! Reading science magazines makes you smart! With 15 years of reading articles dumbed down to the extent that a fifth-grader can understand them you must be a genius!

I'm getting ****ing tired of pseudo-intellectuals like you.

If you cannot comprehend the possibility of human experimentation outside of regulation then you are incredibly ignorant. Unethical human experimentation has been around for a few thousand years and it isn't ever going to stop. Go on Google, and realize that what you find are only the unethical human experimentation that they didn't manage to hide well enough.

For a small group of scientists it would be incredibly easy and beneficial to work outside of regulation to prove the efficacy of their treatment before beginning clinical trials, if the desire to do so existed.

[Kampung101]

Replicel are following good clinical practice. Even though the treatment is autologous we KNOW that some Wnt proteins are associated with cancer and we don't know for sure what will happen. Absence of evidence does not equal evidence of absence.


I'm guessing the wnt proteins are being multiplied as a side effect of the dermal cup cells being multiplied, correct? This is probabably the only thing I haven't fully grasped yet about Replicel's treatment.

[Kampung101]

For those worried about the safety of this, so far there have been no reports of negative side effects in the followup after phase 1. Obviously no word of certainty can be pronounced until the official data is released in march of next year, but at least its a good sign of the probability of this being safe.

And yes, immediately giving the highest dosage possible in the 1st phase was probably a good move as to get a strong indicator of safety, instead of giving a mild dosage and then risk having safety issues come up later in trials as the dosage is increased. If everything is fine with the offical data, Replicel can then put its focus throughout the rest of the trial period on how the dosage should be administered to get to the highest possible level of efficacy.

[Kampung101]

The reason that Aderans's autologous treatment is taking so long is because they weren't getting any results, not because it wasn't safe.

I think the thing with Aderans was that they had difficulty in the early part of their trials with trying to get good results (the issue wasn't that they were getting no results). But it seems that Aderans has now managed to get good results going further into the trial process, probably due to, as RD pounted out with Replicel finding out in research that different Dermal Papilia cells give different results, that they were able to figure out which DP cells get the best results.

If Aderans wasn't getting good results I don't think they would have gotten that recent big 150 million investment, as investing that much money requires careful study of the data to see if everything is on the up and up, and a close-up view of the results.

[Follicle Death Row]

If Aderans wasn't getting good results I don't think they would have gotten that recent big 150 million investment, as investing that much money requires careful study of the data to see if everything is on the up and up, and a close-up view of the results.

For sure. Aderans are at the point of no return I think. They have sunk too much money not to get something to market (unless it was one balding Sheik to who it's chump change. :D). They'll have a treatment but how effective is anyone's guess at this point. Has to be greater than 20% regrowth and no further loss ever you would think.

[Pate]

I'm guessing the wnt proteins are being multiplied as a side effect of the dermal cup cells being multiplied, correct? This is probabably the only thing I haven't fully grasped yet about Replicel's treatment.

It's more that the DC cells are going to pump out growth factors which will include the wnt proteins and all the others we hear about. My understanding of the major difference between Histogen and Replicel is that Replicel will inject the cells and let them express the genes and growth factors in vivo, whereas Histogen will culture the cells in the lab where gene expression and production of growth factors happens in vitro, then they inject the growth factors directly.

But as far as Replicel is concerned, basically there is going to be a hyper-expression of genes and growth factors in vivo such as hasn't been seen in the scalp since you were a developing embryo. Who knows what that might do? It SHOULD be okay but there might be unknown processes going on that nobody yet knows about. Better safe than sorry.

The other big unknown is the purity of the stem cells. We know that the cells have to go through several generations to make enough cells to be useful, and we know that in previous work the stem cells at the end of the process were not the same as the original stem cells - in particular they lost their inductive ability to generate hair, which is one major reason the original 10-year estimate blew out.

So what happens if there are mutations along the line? What if a mutation happens early on and carries down through billions of daughter cells? What if those cells now hyper-express a protein that causes cancer?

I'm not saying that's likely or even possible because I don't know, I'm not an expert (I am a scientist but not a bioscientist). All I'm saying is we are talking about a process that is associated with both embryo development and cancer. And even if there's no known pathway by which cancer could result (as the Replicel guys have said), that doesn't mean one doesn't exist, because this is brand new science - we need to go through the trials and Replicel obviously agree.

Even if some of us are desperate enough to take the risk we need to remember that any serious breach of safety standards could get Replicel into big trouble and send them out of business as well as get the whole industry under extra regulation - and then nobody gets treatment.

[Pate]

Just wanted to clarify that Replicel and Histogen of course use different cells - Replicel use DSC cells and Histogen use fibroblasts - but they both rely on the cells producing growth factors to achieve new hair growth.

Here is an abstract from a presentation by Hoffman and McElwee in 2010: http://www.hair2010.org/abstract/10.asp

It explains nicely both how they need to consider cancer during the process and how their results show that so far all evidence points to DSCs being safe.

[Kampung101]

Thanks Pate for the synopsis on that specific area of this treatment.

So would you say Histogen has the possibility of being maybe more safer due to the gene expression and the growth factor production happening in vitro?

[Dasani]

4-5 more months and we'll know a lot more after the results from histogen, replicel, and aderans come out. Waiting is not fun.

[RichardDawkins]

The results will be good there is no doubt, from all of them. Why i say this? Because all of them have secretly or not get in touch with clinics and dermatologist, like Gho did.

This is actually a good sign.

The bad sign in 5 months : PRICE TAG and AVAILABILITY (is this even a word)

Mark my words in 5 months a lot of us will say " Goddammit this will be expensive"

[CVAZBAR]

4-5 more months and we'll know a lot more after the results from histogen, replicel, and aderans come out. Waiting is not fun.

It'll be worse if they fail.

[Follicle Death Row]

It'll be worse if they fail.

I saw something in college today that said that most treatments and drugs don't get anywhere near 'the potential' we see in animal models. Made me sad. Plus they said it can take 14 years to go from animal tests to on the shelf and about $350mil. For every 20,000 chemicals created only one makes an effective treatment. Wanted to block my ears.

However perhaps we can consider cell based solutions a new paradigm.

[DepressedByHairLoss]

I saw something in college today that said that most treatments and drugs don't get anywhere near 'the potential' we see in animal models. Made me sad. Plus they said it can take 14 years to go from animal tests to on the shelf and about $350mil. For every 20,000 chemicals created only one makes an effective treatment. Wanted to block my ears.

However perhaps we can consider cell based solutions a new paradigm.

I disagree with those statistics. Nothing against you Follicle Death Row (you seem like a good guy), I just think that those statistics that were brought up at college sound like 'alarmist' statistics created by people who are trying to create lots of alarm and hype by putting forth astounding numbers. When I was in college, I heard plenty of so-called statistics that were brought up by professors and others who manipulated data to use it back up their own point of view. I don't believe that 20,000 chemicals statistic but I do agree that there are far too many chemicals that are not even bothered to be tested on humans, chemicals that could have great potential to cure this hair loss curse. I don't buy the statistic about 14 years and $350 million; there are plenty of drugs and treatments that don't fit into that category. Perhaps some treatments are not delivered to the public as quickly as they should because they've got various regulatory agencies and pharmaceutical special interests that very often unnecessarily hold them up. But that's why Replicel, Follica, and Histogen are conducting their trials outside of North America, so that they won't need to deal with any bureaucratic red tape. I just don't think that these statistics are true, so I don't think we have anything to be pessimistic about (at least related to those stats).

[CVAZBAR]

I saw something in college today that said that most treatments and drugs don't get anywhere near 'the potential' we see in animal models. Made me sad. Plus they said it can take 14 years to go from animal tests to on the shelf and about $350mil. For every 20,000 chemicals created only one makes an effective treatment. Wanted to block my ears.

However perhaps we can consider cell based solutions a new paradigm.

To be honest, I don't even know what to think anymore. I'm trying to prepare for the worst. I really hope all this exceeds expectations but the more you learn about this problem, the more I lose confidence. It's hard to believe we haven't been able to crack this. In a way I feel we're just starting to learn from this. I want to be wrong but sometimes I feel we need a miracle at this point.

[Jundam]

I saw something in college today that said that most treatments and drugs don't get anywhere near 'the potential' we see in animal models. Made me sad. Plus they said it can take 14 years to go from animal tests to on the shelf and about $350mil. For every 20,000 chemicals created only one makes an effective treatment. Wanted to block my ears.

However perhaps we can consider cell based solutions a new paradigm.

Sounds to me like your teacher is just bending statistics to make a point by using the grandest and blandest of examples knowing full well that no student is going to argue them.

Statistics is such utter bullshit in almost any scenario, so easy to bend to your need. It's why politicians love them.

[Follicle Death Row]

Sounds to me like your teacher is just bending statistics to make a point by using the grandest and blandest of examples knowing full well that no student is going to argue them.

Statistics is such utter bullshit in almost any scenario, so easy to bend to your need. It's why politicians love them.

I hope so man. She didn't see to have the brightest outlook on the pharmaceutical industry. When I say up to 14 years that's the longest time frame. Shortest is supposedly 8 years from animal testing to market apparently. Then again Replicel probably started animal trials way way back so who knows.

As to what those stats are based on I have no idea. I was sitting there thinking balls, hope this isn't true. Hopefully the sample was taken to prove a point. I know what you mean about statistics. There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. I love that quote. Still we might be exhausting solutions with traditional drugs that target receptors. We can't tar cell based solutions with that brush. We're talking about something completely different. Cell based solutions will hopefully explode and with that paradigm shift medicine will continue to advance.

Sometimes I think hmmm, 2016 we'll have this cracked, that's amazing! But then you have moments where you're like yeah right. It's probably best not to get too excited. As I always say, they will crack it but very hard to say when. The timeline for 2015/2016 makes sense but in reality it just never seems to go off without a hitch.

I did think it was healthy to hear that though. I don't want to set myself up for disappoint with Replicel but the signs are still good. Good to ground me. I think I'll take some time off the forums and revisit nearer March for the phase 1 results.

[Follicle Death Row]

I disagree with those statistics. Nothing against you Follicle Death Row (you seem like a good guy), I just think that those statistics that were brought up at college sound like 'alarmist' statistics created by people who are trying to create lots of alarm and hype by putting forth astounding numbers. When I was in college, I heard plenty of so-called statistics that were brought up by professors and others who manipulated data to use it back up their own point of view. I don't believe that 20,000 chemicals statistic but I do agree that there are far too many chemicals that are not even bothered to be tested on humans, chemicals that could have great potential to cure this hair loss curse. I don't buy the statistic about 14 years and $350 million; there are plenty of drugs and treatments that don't fit into that category. Perhaps some treatments are not delivered to the public as quickly as they should because they've got various regulatory agencies and pharmaceutical special interests that very often unnecessarily hold them up. But that's why Replicel, Follica, and Histogen are conducting their trials outside of North America, so that they won't need to deal with any bureaucratic red tape. I just don't think that these statistics are true, so I don't think we have anything to be pessimistic about (at least related to those stats).

Well the statistics are right. The question is what sample are they based on? Presumably a sample was taken to paint a pessimistic picture of the pharmaceutical industry today. So many mergers because of such few blockbuster drugs in the pipelines. Etc etc. I actually think it did me some good. I'm a little more grounded and have taken down my expectations a little so as not to set myself up for disappointment.

[uninformed]

Well the statistics are right. The question is what sample are they based on? Presumably a sample was taken to paint a pessimistic picture of the pharmaceutical industry today. So many mergers because of such few blockbuster drugs in the pipelines. Etc etc. I actually think it did me some good. I'm a little more grounded and have taken down my expectations a little so as not to set myself up for disappointment.

exactly, the 4 companies arent your everyday companies. theyre better. its like saying statistically speaking it takes the average man 14 seconds to run 100 metre, stat may be true but it doesnt mean no one can get there in 10 seconds

[wherediditgo]

Does anybody know/ think that the injections will be compoundable. So that over time through several sets of injections one could get unlimited density? Over months of years?

[NeedHairASAP]

Well the statistics are right. The question is what sample are they based on? Presumably a sample was taken to paint a pessimistic picture of the pharmaceutical industry today. So many mergers because of such few blockbuster drugs in the pipelines. Etc etc. I actually think it did me some good. I'm a little more grounded and have taken down my expectations a little so as not to set myself up for disappointment.


2016 is a best case scenario.... a lot of these companies still consider propecia and minox as competition.... that says something about their expectations for their products....

[NeedHairASAP]

Does anybody know/ think that the injections will be compoundable. So that over time through several sets of injections one could get unlimited density? Over months of years?

Nobody here knows anything. They will respond as if they do... be weary because most are assumptions, guesses, and others... just hopes.

[Jundam]

Nobody here knows anything. They will respond as if they do... be weary because most are assumptions, guesses, and others... just hopes.

To be fair, we know more than nothing. That said, we know very little.

As far as the question goes I expect you won't find an answer in the first phase of the the clinical trials, but the possibility will most likely be tested during the second or third phase.

Waiting is fun.

[Pate]

Nobody knows, Histogen is currently (apparently) running the first trial to check if effects are compounding.

The line of thought (as explained by Histogen) is that not all follicles may be in the right stage of the growth cycle to be regenerated at the same time. So if you have another set of injections six weeks later, a more follicles may be ready to go.

But that is just speculation at this point. Replicel to my knowledge haven't said anything about compounding effects one way or the other. I guess we have to know what one Replicel treatment does before we worry about multiple treatments.

[RichardDawkins]

Correct hairs and follicles are in different stages of cycling.

Btw if they got even more hair after a second injection you can pretty much assume its compoundable

[Penny Stock]

Just a quick one,

If you inject DSC cells once into an area where there is no hair, ie a mouse foot, and hair grows..... What would possibly suggest that a second injection wouldn't produce more hair?

Just a guess, but I'd say that there is a strong likelihood that the treatment would be compoundable.

[RichardDawkins]

Did you read the postings before? The moment a second shot provide more hair this moment its compoundable.

But follicles are in different cycles thats the reason why it can take longer or shorter for hair to regrow.

But we should wait till march, end of story, no more ass talk and no more panic bullshit

[Penny Stock]

What?

DSC cells are the adult mesenchymal stem cells of the hair follicle.

Feel free to google adult mesenchymal stem cells.


Here's a nice patent for you to read.

http://www.freepatentsonline.com/20060088505.pdf
Here is an excerpt

The cells according to the invention are able and have the characteristic, respectively, unlike the cells of the follicular connective tissue coating (DS) and the dermal papilla (DP), to form a completely new hair follicle or to migrate into a pre-existing hair papilla in order to produce a bigger and thicker hair therewith.

The connective tissue cells at the lower pole of the connective tissue sheath, the so called hair cup cells (DSC), may regenerate all relevant structures of the hair follicle unit formed by the dermis. Due to this feature, they enable the formation of new hair growth or the formation of a thicker hair by population of a small DP. In this case, the life span of the newly formed hair is not limited in time, but may be a lifelong one in principle.

By means of these experiments preliminary investigations could be confirmed that new hair growth is possible by the implantation of DP cells and that only the implanted cells form the new hair, whereas implanted DS cells did not result in the formation of hair but were visible in the dermis as diffuse, GFP expression cell population when using a confocal microscope. Implanted DP cells only led to the formation of a new dermal hair papilla but not to the formation of a follicular connective tissue coating. In contrast, the DSC cells formed both a new DP and a part of the follicular connective tissue (DS) coating. By the fact that the DSC cells may rebuild all dermal hair structures, whereas cells of the DP are not able to do so, it can be deduced that the DSC are less differentiated and more pluripotent than cells of the DP. For this reason, the DSC cells are the adult mesenchymal stem cells of the hair follicle.


If I take for example 1000 DSC adult mesenchymal stem cells, inject them into the dermis where no hair is present or ever has been and 5 hairs are created.

Why wouldn't I have the same result with the next dose of 1000 cells?

[NotDyingBald]

Replicel´s been using as an advantage for their treatment the argument that Finasteride has side effects. But now they just published this on their facebook page:

http://www.***************/general-hair-loss-topics/japanese-study-finds-propecia-finasteride-safe-and-effective-for-treating-male-hair-loss/?src=FB_replicel

How do we interpretate this?

[Penny Stock]

They have presented that article in an objective manner.
“What do you think about their findings?
Is a question that doesn't agree, or disagree with the article, it merely opens a discussion.


That’s how I’d interpret it.

Plus its probably the receptionist posting anyway.

[RichardDawkins]

Another useless panic BS post. Its just a study to show people something, its totaly without any evaluation.

But if you want it hard you could say they posted it to mock propecia because their product is better whatever

[NotDyingBald]

Easy Dawkins. Don´t misunterstand the post. I actually interpretate it in a positive way mate. it matches with their policy of having nothing to hide and providing all information about hair loss. I think that from the beggining they´ve been saying: "Hey, we´re not better or worse than anybody. This is our investigation and that´s what we pretende to achieve" Hope they keep it when results(positive or not) start to show.

Plus, i think it´s good news, because i´m reaching that point where hairloss is starting to notice, and i´ve been thinking in how to hold on til something good comes up.

Cheers

[Reece]

Couple questions:

Are we going to see results on efficacy in q1 2012 or is it just going to be safety? And if it is just safety results is that worrisome? As far as I know some of these other research firms have shown safety in phases with little documented efficacy, just wondering.

I understand that using the dermal cup sheath is what sets replicel apart but what part of the formula is being tested? The culture that multiples the cells are a formula that promotes growth when injected?

[Tracy C]

Are we going to see results on efficacy in q1 2012 or is it just going to be safety?

Mr. Hall stated many times that the current study (phase I/IIa) is for both safety and efficacy. The results we will see in Q1 2012 will be for both safety and efficacy.



And if it is just safety results is that worrisome?

No. It's a requirement.




I understand that using the dermal cup sheath is what sets replicel apart but what part of the formula is being tested? The culture that multiples the cells are a formula that promotes growth when injected?

I'm not sure I understand what you are asking but I think the answer is both.

[Pate]

Just a quick one,

If you inject DSC cells once into an area where there is no hair, ie a mouse foot, and hair grows..... What would possibly suggest that a second injection wouldn't produce more hair?

Just a guess, but I'd say that there is a strong likelihood that the treatment would be compoundable.

Because the process has two proposed mechanisms, both rejuvenation of damaged follicles and follicular neogenesis. We don't actually know how well each will work in humans.

If the neogenesis works well enough to be a viable treatment (as opposed to just incidentally growing a new follicle here and there) then sure, you'd assume the results are compoundable and multiple treatments would be worthwhile.

But there are just so many unknowns in going from mouse models to humans.

[Thunderbass]

Does anyone know if this will work with traction alopecia?

[Penny Stock]

Because the process has two proposed mechanisms, both rejuvenation of damaged follicles and follicular neogenesis. We don't actually know how well each will work in humans.

If the neogenesis works well enough to be a viable treatment (as opposed to just incidentally growing a new follicle here and there) then sure, you'd assume the results are compoundable and multiple treatments would be worthwhile.

But there are just so many unknowns in going from mouse models to humans.

Of course I'm not disagreeing with you, there are so many unknowns in going from mouse models to humans, that’s why researchers like ADERANS RESEARCH use human donor skin tissue from i.e. scalp reductions, face lifts and hair transplants, to inject the cultured cells into.

So although WE have no Idea how well it will work on human tissue, Id say with reasonable confidence that Replicel do, the scientists Hoffman etc. have their own money invested in this. Why on earth would you try and compete with a multimillion dollar company like ADERANS RESEARCH if you weren’t certain you method was better?
It wouldn't make sense, and these guys aren’t stupid, if fact there classical geniuses’.

[Kiwi]

Of course I'm not disagreeing with you, there are so many unknowns in going from mouse models to humans, that’s why researchers like ADERANS RESEARCH use human donor skin tissue from i.e. scalp reductions, face lifts and hair transplants, to inject the cultured cells into.

So although WE have no Idea how well it will work on human tissue, Id say with reasonable confidence that Replicel do, the scientists Hoffman etc. have their own money invested in this. Why on earth would you try and compete with a multimillion dollar company like ADERANS RESEARCH if you weren’t certain you method was better?
It wouldn't make sense, and these guys aren’t stupid, if fact there classical geniuses’.

Its they are not there ;)

Anyway I don't think that Replicel know whether their solution is better. How would they.

All they need to know is that they have a solution. The market is big enough for Replicel, Aderans and Histogen... and any of the others that are likely to pop up.

[Tracy C]

Does anyone know if this will work with traction alopecia?

Since Replicel anticipates their treatment will repair damaged follicles, it is safe to assume that the answer should be yes.

[Penny Stock]

Its they are not there ;)

Anyway I don't think that Replicel know whether their solution is better. How would they.

All they need to know is that they have a solution. The market is big enough for Replicel, Aderans and Histogen... and any of the others that are likely to pop up.

1. I made a typo... give me a break.
2. If you feel the need to disperse english lessions, please direct them at members who can even spell.

3. I'm not even going to go into your "The market is big enough for Replicel, Aderans" comment.

Read this....

http://www.horizonti.net/clanki/regenerativna.pdf


If you can tell me why Aderans research are utilising minoxidil in their clinical trials, I'll answer why Replicel knows they have a better solution.


Ps. Vote National!!

Pss. http://www.jstor.org/pss/30151709

[Kiwi]

I'm no scientist and neither are you. Which is why you can't answer the questions honestly with 100% knowledge. And neither can I. I'm speculating on what I think is probable. You seem to know something factual that even the CEO of Replicell hasn't guaranteed us yet. That is just weird.

Probably only a small handful of scientists who work for Aderans or Replicell can actually answer these questions. And this is why that sort of comment from you is such bull shit.

The market is big enough for all hair treatment products. You don't have to say anything other then "yes of course it is - there are hundreds of millions of consumers for this shit".

Of course you could say something else but you'd be wrong or arguing a technicality if you did.

Aderans will be first to market. Then Histogen. Then Replicell.. then who knows (and who even cares). But I can guarantee you that they will all make more money then they have invested. If I'm wrong then Propecia and Minox wouldn't sell. And neither would Ketokonazol and all the other herbal crap options on the market that do nothing.

[Penny Stock]

Sweet as mate,

I'm not in the mood to argue with you.

Have a great day.

[Kiwi]

Good!!

Because you'd confuse the readers of this site into thinking that somehow not all of the products when launched will make money. Because they all will!!

[Penny Stock]

Brought a hd dvd recently?

There is a place in the market for histrogen, follica, and one cell based solution but not two.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HD_DVD

[Penny Stock]

Look man,

I not here to get into an argument with anyone, I just want to constructively share information I've found.

And I'm not claiming I know everything with 100% certainty, I'm just sticking to the factual information that I can find.

[Kiwi]

I've studied economics and I'm telling you there is a big enough market for all those compaines and more.

The great thing about this that benefits all us old balding ****s (i'm only 33) is that competition will drive the price down.

Its not like there is only one type of car. Or two. Or one type of computer. Although arguably you'd only buy a mac.

Its not like there is only 1 womans tabloid magazine. Its not like there is only one supermarket chain. Or one or two fast food outlets. We could list these examples all day for a month.

They will all hit the market if they are proven to work. The ones that market / advertise the best will probably make the most money.

[Jundam]

You should listen to Kiwi. He reads science magazines.



Penny_Stock is right when he says there will only be room for one autologus approach. Either one works and the other doesn't, or they both work but one works better, or they both work equally well but one beats the other to the market and casts a shadow over the release of the second one; making it impossible for the second one to grab any significant part of the market.

Or none of them works. But let's not go down that depressing route until we have to.

[RichardDawkins]

Actually even with 10 companieson the market, there would be place for others, what some here dont understand is the simple fact that the amount of baldies will never decrease.

For example if i would start a HM company and only got 10 customers in one months which will pay 4000 dollar each, i would be a ****ing happy camper.

And we should embrace the competition because it will drive things cheaper in the end and better. You would be smiling if you knew how strangely fast some products getting better when competition arrives on the market.

Also regional discrepancies, some companies will focus on asian markets and others on european or us markets, so who gives.

The only fact is, none of those companies would put in more and more money into their stuff, if their shit wont work, because so it would be cheaper to grab the money and buy shares of another hm company.

Does anyone here seriusly belive that hair loss is finite? Its not, just take alook at this primitive FIn and Minox thing, even those bastard lousy cheap ass shampoo and pills can stop or slower hair loss and even get regrowth on a limited scale.

And those are primitive cheap ass prototype failure treatments compared to cell based solutions.

But of course i can understand people who dont wanna play the waiting game. Dont be bothered

But to be the downbringer here, i dont think that all the hm solutions will work on scarred heads who had multiple Strips done badly and/or big FUE shot gun holes or scalp reductions. I simply think this wont work on those heads.

The reason for that is just a simple observation, if you look at a slick NW7 balding guy with close up, they always have tiny vellus hairs and follicle pores where a scarred head has only bulky flesh scars.

So what is more likely? To get those tiny vellus bitch hairs to grow terminal again or to get follicles out of nowhere on scar tissue

I am sorry for the swear words but tis should explain it in laymans terms plain and simple enough

[Kiwi]

You should listen to Kiwi. He reads science magazines.



Penny_Stock is right when he says there will only be room for one autologus approach. Either one works and the other doesn't, or they both work but one works better, or they both work equally well but one beats the other to the market and casts a shadow over the release of the second one; making it impossible for the second one to grab any significant part of the market.

Or none of them works. But let's not go down that depressing route until we have to.

No really, listen to Jundam, he thinks we should skip trailing drugs on mice and go straight to human testing.... idiot...

[krewel]

I've studied economics and I'm telling you there is a big enough market for all those compaines and more.

Early semester exercise: Let's say for example Replicel proves to be a real or at least satisfying solution after Phase 1 / during Phase 2. What happens to the other companies? I'll give you a hint: Shareholder Value

U.S Bachelor degrees...

Sorry, it's not that easy. You know, I don't want to be rude but it's really annoying to see someone trying to silence other people by saying "trust me, I studied economics and I'm reading science magazines"
If you want to sell your "I studied" gun, ship it with arguments please.

[mg39]

Make no mistake, this is a race to the finish line. Replicel are being smart about it by dosing up in phase one. Under the veil of safety they will determine efficacy at the same time, and satisfy shareholders and set the market. There is room for more than one treatment provided they all work...at least initially. Ultimately the market will dictate who comes out on top though. That is until another more effective treatment comes along.

[Kiwi]

Early semester exercise: Let's say for example Replicel proves to be a real or at least satisfying solution after Phase 1 / during Phase 2. What happens to the other companies? I'll give you a hint: Shareholder Value

U.S Bachelor degrees...

Sorry, it's not that easy. You know, I don't want to be rude but it's really annoying to see someone trying to silence other people by saying "trust me, I studied economics and I'm reading science magazines"
If you want to sell your "I studied" gun, ship it with arguments please.

U.S Bachelor degree. I rest my case. Thanks to you lot (USA) the world is having another recession. That was the least insulting or patronizing thing anybody has ever said to somebody outside of the confines of Fox news.

Maybe I dont have the most amazing education but it doesn't take a genius to know that once all of these companies reach the market they will all sell their products. The shareholders of the companies that exist now (aderans etc) and all of the others that come later will only have one thing in mind... I'll give you a hint shareholder "return". Its that simple.

And in terms of my statement around reading scientific journals and magazines - its a hell of a lot more valid then some bitter and balding tenny bobber stating that Replicell should trial its products on humans first - that is totally absurd. If I had to pick over my somewhat studied and researched opinion over "test it on humans - she'll be right" attitude... I pick me everytime.

I find it hard to believe that people are giving me a hard time for being practical about all of this. If we're practical and keep the push in the real world we're all going to get the products we want sooner.

Arguing to test things on humans first is exactly the kind of retarded distraction all these companies want.

[Kiwi]

Make no mistake, this is a race to the finish line. Replicel are being smart about it by dosing up in phase one. Under the veil of safety they will determine efficacy at the same time, and satisfy shareholders and set the market. There is room for more than one treatment provided they all work...at least initially. Ultimately the market will dictate who comes out on top though. That is until another more effective treatment comes along.

YES! Sense at last.

The market will dictate who is on top - just like the market decided Porche is better then Holdens.

But they will ALL get filthy rich. Mark my words. Come on folks!!! Even the TrX2 douche bags are making money ripping people off!!! And thats just the world we live in!!!

[RichardDawkins]

it is called Porsche and not Porche

[Kiwi]

it is called Porsche and not Porche

LOL - thanks Rich

[Kiwi]

What really sux about TRX2 is that Spencer hasnt deleted that thread. Is that because Spencer thinks it might be a real solution?

I am curious about that one...

[Jundam]

No really, listen to Jundam, he thinks we should skip trailing drugs on mice and go straight to human testing.... idiot...

Never said that. If you possessed a moderate level of reading comprehension you'd know that. In fact if you ever feel compelled to backtrack my posts you'd see me in a lengthy argument against that exact thing a few months back.

You don't understand science as well as you think you do. You sure as **** don't understand business. But you're on these forums spouting off as if you and telling other people to shut up without any coherent argument as to why except "I've studied this" or "I've read that".

Personally I don't care that you're an idiot, but you're being a ****ing asshole about it.

[Kiwi]

Never said that. If you possessed a moderate level of reading comprehension you'd know that. In fact if you ever feel compelled to backtrack my posts you'd see me in a lengthy argument against that exact thing a few months back.

You don't understand science as well as you think you do. You sure as **** don't understand business. But you're on these forums spouting off as if you and telling other people to shut up without any coherent argument as to why except "I've studied this" or "I've read that".

Personally I don't care that you're an idiot, but you're being a ****ing asshole about it.

You seriously don't know what you're talking about.

I own a company with 8 staff members. Which isnt bad for a first time company that pulls over 70K per month. I also invest in small tech firms and help people grow their businesses. I've worked my ass off to be where I am today.

I have been reading science magazines and journals for 10 years. Long before I had an interest in Hairloss. It might not give me as greater understanding as an actual scientist or an actual company in the industry - but I do feel as though I have a grasp on how these things work. I also have a friend who living in the USA who is a lawyer for a pharmaceutical company in America. So I understand why the big pharmaceutical companies want to protect their investments (I don't agree with patent laws but I understand them), I have a friend living in the USA who is working on a vacine for HIV with whom I have had MANY lengthy conversations with about what their business goes through both regulatory and about how they go about getting their funding, and I have another friend here in NZ that was working on a drug to help people with diabetes, a guy who I've hounded for years about this stuff - so that I can understand better what the companies in the USA (and here) have to go through to get drugs on the street and for sale.

What genuinely concerns me is that there are people on this site that;

a) advocate testing untrialed drugs on humans (apologies if it wasnt you - but there was somebody recently actually advocating that - it was pathetic and scary)

b) speak declaratively, as though what they say is fact, about how the first company that hits market will somehow mean all the others fail

It is impossible for us to know this stuff but we do know that their are millions of people loosing their hair. These companies will all win. And the royal "we" are all going to be paying for it.

Richard was right. Some drugs will sell in some countries but not others. Some will work on some people and not others. There are way too many variables for anyone on this site, who doesn't work in one of those companies, to start talking like we know what is going to happen.

In my mind it these people are the people behaving like assholes because it gives out a false message to new our members. And probably do nothing but piss people off in the Companies like Histogen.

Heck I've seen assholes write pathetic emails to people like Gail whatshername demanding information about Histogen. Well I say **** off. She is busy trying to secure millions of dollars worth of funding and I want her focusing on managing a team of people to make my hair grow back - not replying to emails from desperados.

Its no wonder people from these companies with the information that we all want so desperately don't "frequent" this place. Its because certain douche bags pester them away... that is the worst possible thing for our cause!

[Ronin]

You seriously don't know what you're talking about.

I own a company with 8 staff members. Which isnt bad for a first time company that pulls over 70K per month. I also invest in small tech firms and help people grow their businesses. I've worked my ass off to be where I am today.

I have been reading science magazines and journals for 10 years. Long before I had an interest in Hairloss. It might not give me as greater understanding as an actual scientist or an actual company in the industry - but I do feel as though I have a grasp on how these things work. I also have a friend who living in the USA who is a lawyer for a pharmaceutical company in America. So I understand why the big pharmaceutical companies want to protect their investments (I don't agree with patent laws but I understand them), I have a friend living in the USA who is working on a vacine for HIV with whom I have had MANY lengthy conversations with about what their business goes through both regulatory and about how they go about getting their funding, and I have another friend here in NZ that was working on a drug to help people with diabetes, a guy who I've hounded for years about this stuff - so that I can understand better what the companies in the USA (and here) have to go through to get drugs on the street and for sale.

What genuinely concerns me is that there are people on this site that;

a) advocate testing untrialed drugs on humans (apologies if it wasnt you - but there was somebody recently actually advocating that - it was pathetic and scary)

b) speak declaratively, as though what they say is fact, about how the first company that hits market will somehow mean all the others fail

It is impossible for us to know this stuff but we do know that their are millions of people loosing their hair. These companies will all win. And the royal "we" are all going to be paying for it.

Richard was right. Some drugs will sell in some countries but not others. Some will work on some people and not others. There are way too many variables for anyone on this site, who doesn't work in one of those companies, to start talking like we know what is going to happen.

In my mind it these people are the people behaving like assholes because it gives out a false message to new our members. And probably do nothing but piss people off in the Companies like Histogen.

Heck I've seen assholes write pathetic emails to people like Gail whatshername demanding information about Histogen. Well I say **** off. She is busy trying to secure millions of dollars worth of funding and I want her focusing on managing a team of people to make my hair grow back - not replying to emails from desperados.

Its no wonder people from these companies with the information that we all want so desperately don't "frequent" this place. Its because certain douche bags pester them away... that is the worst possible thing for our cause!

Sounds like you're a busy man. How on earth do you find the time and energy to have such vivid presence on anonymous hair loss forums?

[Kiwi]

Sounds like you're a busy man. How on earth do you find the time and energy to have such vivid presence on anonymous hair loss forums?

Because I care about the readers on this site and I'm obsessed with my Hair Loss. Same as everybody else here I guess :P

[Tracy C]

What really sux about TRX2 is that Spencer hasnt deleted that thread. Is that because Spencer thinks it might be a real solution?

I seriously doubt that.

[Sogeking]

What really sux about TRX2 is that Spencer hasnt deleted that thread. Is that because Spencer thinks it might be a real solution?

I am curious about that one...

Forum gives us freedom to discuss about any commercially available treatments. I believe it is a good way to warn people.
To delete that thread would be unfair to those that discuss it and use the product. Besides we all know it is snake oil since we are still in cutting edge/future treatments forum.
And this wait is giving us ample time to bicker and speculate since there is nothing else to do :D :D.

[needhairplease]

this my first post so i truly am sorry to be negative, but i just can't escape the obvious; If there was a solution, whether it be Replicel, or Histogen, or whatever, and it could reach any kind of break through level of hair regeneration, restoration, regrowth or any other re (which for argument sake lets say is 70%). Don't you think as soon as they were done with their first human clinical trial, they would have had the evidence to create a buzz and clamor over its greatness that this company would have been able to raise so much capital it could easily come to market in less than 3 years.
the bald truth is that the wonder drug or treatment, or miracle (aka over 70 percent) is not out there, and it is not on the pipeline. We may very well have a solution in 2015, but i am sure it will be something that was recently discovered, was shown to be miraculously effective, raised capital determinatively quickly (easy enough to do in a 3.5 billion dollar market) and came to fruition as Korben likes to say.
But I don't believe in miracle or in santa clause, because i have watched people (myself included) wait for the same solution for over 20 years now, and it always seemed to be 5 years away.
Market creates need, and usually a product gets beat by another product, by just a little bit more. It amazes me that people wonder why that is, its because the market is paying for the solution, and as long as the solution is only just enough, the market remains a consistent investor, and grows. So the payoff, in a capitalistic money making utopia, aka.the real world, is not one solution to end all solutions. Its not every going to be a cure, it will just be something that much better.
which is why there is no cure for cancer, there is no cure for aids, and there is no cure for baldness.
Someday they will all be cured, but if you want to estimate when that is, take a simple sample size of all medical issues the world has, divide that by how many have been solved, average out how long each one of those problems have been scientifically researched for a solution, factor in the exponential increase in scientific capability and allow for that to reduce the length of time needed.

my jist and prediction: Replicel will be 50 percent effective, it will beat out the competition, and make some money, just like propecia, and now avodart. There may be a contender or two who do something in the 30-40 percent range before that time. and we will not see a real cure until 2020, and replicel is not it.

Also, just a quick note to Spenz, it really would have been nice for you to not be so nice.
Stop thinking like a consumer, start thinking like a reporter and ask the hard questions.
1. Now that you have tested on humans and we are reaching the 3 month period since patient 0, have you seen growth?
If so, how much?
2. Why are you leaning back on a 20 percent benchmark? what are your exact predictions for efficacy of this treatment?
3. What are the main hurdles that have deterred the development of this treatment, being that it has been in development for over 9 years?
3. How do you see the market maturing around you? Who do you feel are your main competitors, and do you feel that their hopes and projections are similar to your own.
4. In treatment in mice, how have you faired in comparison to other treatments in the pipeline.
5. What are your biggest obstacles in the foreseeable future?

and so many more...

Anyway, glad to be here, think its nice to have a place to rant and release all my pent up anger at my ever-thinning top hat.

Saludos a todos..

[Kiwi]

this my first post so i truly am sorry to be negative, but i just can't escape the obvious; If there was a solution, whether it be Replicel, or Histogen, or whatever, and it could reach any kind of break through level of hair regeneration, restoration, regrowth or any other re (which for argument sake lets say is 70%). Don't you think as soon as they were done with their first human clinical trial, they would have had the evidence to create a buzz and clamor over its greatness that this company would have been able to raise so much capital it could easily come to market in less than 3 years.
the bald truth is that the wonder drug or treatment, or miracle (aka over 70 percent) is not out there, and it is not on the pipeline. We may very well have a solution in 2015, but i am sure it will be something that was recently discovered, was shown to be miraculously effective, raised capital determinatively quickly (easy enough to do in a 3.5 billion dollar market) and came to fruition as Korben likes to say.
But I don't believe in miracle or in santa clause, because i have watched people (myself included) wait for the same solution for over 20 years now, and it always seemed to be 5 years away.
Market creates need, and usually a product gets beat by another product, by just a little bit more. It amazes me that people wonder why that is, its because the market is paying for the solution, and as long as the solution is only just enough, the market remains a consistent investor, and grows. So the payoff, in a capitalistic money making utopia, aka.the real world, is not one solution to end all solutions. Its not every going to be a cure, it will just be something that much better.
which is why there is no cure for cancer, there is no cure for aids, and there is no cure for baldness.
Someday they will all be cured, but if you want to estimate when that is, take a simple sample size of all medical issues the world has, divide that by how many have been solved, average out how long each one of those problems have been scientifically researched for a solution, factor in the exponential increase in scientific capability and allow for that to reduce the length of time needed.

my jist and prediction: Replicel will be 50 percent effective, it will beat out the competition, and make some money, just like propecia, and now avodart. There may be a contender or two who do something in the 30-40 percent range before that time. and we will not see a real cure until 2020, and replicel is not it.

Also, just a quick note to Spenz, it really would have been nice for you to not be so nice.
Stop thinking like a consumer, start thinking like a reporter and ask the hard questions.
1. Now that you have tested on humans and we are reaching the 3 month period since patient 0, have you seen growth?
If so, how much?
2. Why are you leaning back on a 20 percent benchmark? what are your exact predictions for efficacy of this treatment?
3. What are the main hurdles that have deterred the development of this treatment, being that it has been in development for over 9 years?
3. How do you see the market maturing around you? Who do you feel are your main competitors, and do you feel that their hopes and projections are similar to your own.
4. In treatment in mice, how have you faired in comparison to other treatments in the pipeline.
5. What are your biggest obstacles in the foreseeable future?

and so many more...

Anyway, glad to be here, think its nice to have a place to rant and release all my pent up anger at my ever-thinning top hat.

Saludos a todos..

Blah blah blah. You dont have a clue either way. Speculation both positive and negative is only that.

Nice questions though at the end of your rant. I too hope spencer mans up and asks the hard questions next time.

[re22]

If Replicel got 50% that would be a de facto cure. 50% would be magnificent. Most of your arguments are very specious, because, for one, we don't really even know exactly what these companies are doing on the business side of things. Secondly, these companies are still in Phase I/II trials, and have not gone through a rigorous testing protocol. I don't think most of you real realize how extensive this process is: for these companies to just flat out say that they have a cure so prematurely would be wreckless and scientifically unsound. You also have to put into consideration patents and other legal things that we probably don't know about either. I know people on these forums love to jump to conclusions, but let's just focus on the facts as they become available to us.

[needhairplease]

Wow, good thing you pointed out my blog was a speculation, for a second there I was worried everyone in here was working toward an accurate prediction of how the medical world will unfold in the completely unforseeable future.
(Where's the smiley for relieved?)

[needhairplease]

Wow, good thing you pointed out my blog was a speculation, for a second there I was worried everyone in here was working toward an accurate prediction of how the medical world will unfold in the completely unforseeable future.
(Where's the smiley for relieved?)

[needhairplease]

If propecia is 20 percent, and u call 50 percent a defacto cure.
I when I read ur blow I honestly hope you don't understands what de facto means.

[re22]

50% of your total hair, meaning that a Norwood 1 would be 100%, wouldn't be a good result?

[nrj]

If propecia is 20 percent, and u call 50 percent a defacto cure.
I when I read ur blow I honestly hope you don't understands what de facto means.

and the difference between propecia and replicel, is that you dont have to take another drug in ure life, you dont lose any more existing hair and there are no sexual or specific side effects, if thats not a cure i dont know what is...

if someone realises his hair loss just as it starts and goes to replicel, he is completely saved.

[Kiwi]

If Replicel got 50% that would be a de facto cure. 50% would be magnificent. Most of your arguments are very specious, because, for one, we don't really even know exactly what these companies are doing on the business side of things. Secondly, these companies are still in Phase I/II trials, and have not gone through a rigorous testing protocol. I don't think most of you real realize how extensive this process is: for these companies to just flat out say that they have a cure so prematurely would be wreckless and scientifically unsound. You also have to put into consideration patents and other legal things that we probably don't know about either. I know people on these forums love to jump to conclusions, but let's just focus on the facts as they become available to us.

Not to mention the non disclosure agreements people in the trials have no doubt been made to sign.

From a business point of view Aderans are kicking ass. Securing millions of dollars and almost wrapping up phase 2 trials. Nobody invests hundreds of millions into a drug unless they think they will see a return.

[Pate]

50% of original density would, if it were permanent and evenly distributed, effectively be a cure because 50% is around the limit at which thinning hair first starts to become noticeable on most people. FUE could then increase density even further, or even it out, or whatever.

But it's not access to capital that is the problem delaying Histogen, Replicel etc (though it doesn't help). It's the time needed for multiple clinical trials. Bill Gates could give Replicel his entire fortune and it wouldn't help them get their product to market any quicker, they would still have to wait until Fall 2012 for their Phase II and then probably at least 12 months after that to start Phase III. And then all the extra time to get it approved by the FDA, commercialised, and rolled out across the world.

And that's if everything goes perfectly. If the method still needs perfecting they may have to go back and do one of the Phases again, with another 12 month delay.

So all in all I think the most likely outcome is that an effective treatment, if not a cure, is on the way and we are on the right track in pursuing it via hair stem cells... but nobody can say with certainty when it will come. It will almost certainly not be before 2015... and it could be much delayed.

For now, let's wait for March and see what Replicel can show us. We'll be in a better position to know where we stand after that.

[Losing_It]

Well first off let me wish everyone here a good 2012 and lets hope for the best in the coming months. My 2 cents on the matter is simple. If replicel succeeds in proving their claims that:

a. they can re-juvenate damaged and create new hair follicles, and
b. make existing hair dht resistant

sounds to me like a cure. Even if they fail to get significant regrowth, the prospect of making existing follicles dht resistance is a real break through. Perhaps at this stage it may not be enough for many, but is really great for future generations? lets not be selfish here.

[born]

Well first off let me wish everyone here a good 2012 and lets hope for the best in the coming months. My 2 cents on the matter is simple. If replicel succeeds in proving their claims that:

a. they can re-juvenate damaged and create new hair follicles, and
b. make existing hair dht resistant

sounds to me like a cure. Even if they fail to get significant regrowth, the prospect of making existing follicles dht resistance is a real break through. Perhaps at this stage it may not be enough for many, but is really great for future generations? lets not be selfish here.

did they say they are going to make existing hair dht resistant? that's good news

[melwou7245]

Just out of curiosity, let's say they achieve all these wonderful results we hope for but the FDA and EMA tell 'em to cool their heals until the whole process has been followed, what do you folks believe the odds are that they would go ahead and release it anyway in other territories that have looser regulations that would allow it?

Also, if this is the case, how many of you would be willing to wait for the US release or drive across the border to el Tijuana to get your injections? :p

[NeedHairASAP]

So much speculation



when was the last OFFICIAL statement by Replicel?


what date? and when will be seeing another OFFICIAL statement by Replicel?

[2020]

So much speculation



when was the last OFFICIAL statement by Replicel?


what date? and when will be seeing another OFFICIAL statement by Replicel?

in march :)

[NeedHairASAP]

in march :)


is that when they are expecting to be done this current trial?

is that when they are expecting to have the results from the current trial?

or is that when they will release the results from the current trial?

and have they formally announced this march date?

[NeedHairASAP]

in march :)






I'm just tired of seeing this thread updated, checking the thread, and finding its just people talking with no real update


I suggest a seperate thread for OFFICIAL RESULTS AND NEWS RELEASES ONLY w/ zero "discussion"... perhaps the admins could start a single thread where posts must be approved? so that only REAL news will update the thread



so tired of reading hypotheses about the compoundability of a product that we don't even know works not compounded

[2020]

Replicel.com


The TS001-2009 study team will be performing a thorough review of the collected study data throughout the months of March and April 2012. Once complete, the treatment groups will be revealed (‘un-blinded’) to the data analysis team and the data will be analyzed. RepliCel remains on schedule to release the initial review of efficacy results in April 2012.

[gmonasco]

From a business point of view Aderans are kicking ass. Securing millions of dollars and almost wrapping up phase 2 trials. Nobody invests hundreds of millions into a drug unless they think they will see a return.

See http://www.xconomy.com/boston/2011/10/07/report-tolerx-folds-its-tent-after-150m-in-investment-and-a-failed-diabetes-drug-trial/ for one of numerous counter-examples.

[gmonasco]

Brought a hd dvd recently?

Bought a video game console lately? Surely there couldn't be room for more than one in the market, yet I see Wii and xBox and PlayStation ...

[Pate]

I suggest a seperate thread for OFFICIAL RESULTS AND NEWS RELEASES ONLY w/ zero "discussion"... perhaps the admins could start a single thread where posts must be approved? so that only REAL news will update the thread

I suggest you sign up at the Replicel website for their e-mail updates and stay away from BTT's Replicel threads.

I get all official releases from Replicel by e-mail. I come here precisely to read the speculation and debate about it.

[Penny Stock]

Bought a video game console lately? Surely there couldn't be room for more than one in the market, yet I see Wii and xBox and PlayStation ...


You cannot compare "developing technology" to developed technology.
There are many brands of bike but I don't see many people riding penny farthings.

That being said, this was a fruitless debate when I had it, unfortunately (for me) the cornerstone of my argument was based on the speculation that Replicel would translate their mouse results of a 50% increase of hair in 100% of cases.

I openly admit that if Replicel do not archive this, then there may be room for more than one Autologous Stem cell treatment in the market place.

Aderans are far further ahead with regards to in human clinical trials, and mouse models are great, but do not necessarily translate to other species.

Please see link.
http://www.aderansresearch.com/pdfs/PUBLICATION_ARI_Ab_HH07.pdf

That being said, you can spend weeks if not months reading on this topic, and realize your only scratching the surface. No one really knows how far along the researchers are, with regards to an effective solution to hairloss.

There are far too many variables to make any sound judgment as to what will happen in the next few years, let alone speculate how and what will come to market.

[TheLongnHairyProphet]

Bought a video game console lately? Surely there couldn't be room for more than one in the market, yet I see Wii and xBox and PlayStation ...

49 days left .....


to know wether we will die a miserable bald life or live happily ever after.
:cool:

[clandestine]

49 days left .....


to know wether we will die a miserable bald life or live happily ever after.
:cool:

All your eggs in one basket, etc, etc.

[melwou7245]

Well while we wait just that little bit longer, I've decided to rather not have HT surgery until I've tried this first. Might be a two+ year wait, but I'd rather be a little patient than permanently scar my scalp and a bucketload of money.

I've got a few questions which I don't think anyone here might know, but it's worth a shot:

1.How long with the cloning and refining process take of the extracted cup cells? Are we talking hours, days or weeks here?

2.So does this involve many small injections in the applicable area or a few big ones?

3.Since this works best on dormant hair follicles, I imagine this will probably be less effective in areas where HT has taken place?

4.And lastly, this same technology will also help medical science grow us new non-rejectable organs and make us live forever right? :confused:

[Maradona]

Well while we wait just that little bit longer, I've decided to rather not have HT surgery until I've tried this first. Might be a two+ year wait, but I'd rather be a little patient than permanently scar my scalp and a bucketload of money.

I've got a few questions which I don't think anyone here might know, but it's worth a shot:

1.How long with the cloning and refining process take of the extracted cup cells? Are we talking hours, days or weeks here?

2.So does this involve many small injections in the applicable area or a few big ones?

3.Since this works best on dormant hair follicles, I imagine this will probably be less effective in areas where HT has taken place?

4.And lastly, this same technology will also help medical science grow us new non-rejectable organs and make us live forever right? :confused:

1. 3 months but replicel's developing a way to make it faster.

2. we don't know.

3. yes, i suppose its harder to create follicles.

4. Nobody understands the mechanism of stem cells 100% so something like replicating organs and use them safely is very far away. All replicel is doing is replicating specific cells not stem cells. However stem cell therapies have been applied to other diseases in the world with pretty good results except the US, its all about regulatory agencies bro.

[WashedOut]

49 days left .....


to know wether we will die a miserable bald life or live happily ever after.
:cool:

Not really how this stuff works but whatever.

[Follicle Death Row]

I like Q4. :D Probably not in our life time but they're opening Pandora's box here. Ultimately, yes, someday. But a 100 years down the line they'll still have to deal with the elephant in the room; overpopulation. A worthy philosophical debate though.

[gmonasco]

You cannot compare "developing technology" to developed technology.

And yet, that's exactly what you did in bringing up the example of HD vs. Blu-ray DVDs.

It's always amusing to see people contradict their own arguments.

[Maradona]

http://stemcellbaldnesscures.com/hair-cloning-2/replicel-now-accepting-applications-for-upcoming-clinical-trials-of-hair-cloning-technology/

[NotBelievingIt]

http://stemcellbaldnesscures.com/hair-cloning-2/replicel-now-accepting-applications-for-upcoming-clinical-trials-of-hair-cloning-technology/

Don't go there, go here http://www.replicel.com/contact-us/clinical-trials-sign-up/

I've signed up!

[Maradona]

Don't go there, go here http://www.replicel.com/contact-us/clinical-trials-sign-up/

I've signed up!

Very excited/scared about april bro. Hopefully all this campaign wasn't to attract investors, which is what it looks like until results are published.

do they inject with placebo in the phase 2 trial?

[CVAZBAR]

What will Replicel do if they arent able to surpass or even match the results of Minox or Fin? Will they close shop? Will they add something to their procedure? What changes could they make? What you guys think?

[BoSox]

What will Replicel do if they arent able to surpass or even match the results of Minox or Fin? Will they close shop? Will they add something to their procedure? What changes could they make? What you guys think?

They've already started planning for dosing trail, next phase. They know they got something.

[ccmethinning]

They've already started planning for dosing trail, next phase. They know they got something.

Not necessarily... but I of course hope so.

[Follicle Death Row]

Not necessarily... but I of course hope so.

Yeah the wheels would already have to be in motion anyway to be ready for phase 2 if phase 1 comes up trumps. I'd say they're collecting the data now and may well have some idea already, perhaps even just anecdotally from some in the trial. However Aderans weren't hugely successful in phase 1 but proved the concept so hopefully Replicel are a notch above that. Here's hoping.

[Kiwi]

They might have to do phase 3 twice!

And did anyone even know about phase 4 and 5

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phases_of_clinical_research

[chrisis]

Phase 4 and 5 is after it's released. Not really a concern for us desperate balding types.

Also, I don't see why they couldn't run two Phase 3 trials simultaneously if they were excited about it and wanted it on the market quickly.

[Kiwi]

Phase 4 and 5 is after it's released. Not really a concern for us desperate balding types.

Also, I don't see why they couldn't run two Phase 3 trials simultaneously if they were excited about it and wanted it on the market quickly.

Thats a good point re phase 3 trials.

I am a bit nervous though. If it takes aderans around 11 months to sign up 100 people then imagine how long it'll take to secure 3000!!

[chrisis]

They're already recruiting and I've signed up! Finding 3000 men shouldn't be difficult if the results of phase 1 are decent.

[StressedToTheBald]

They're already recruiting and I've signed up! Finding 3000 men shouldn't be difficult if the results of phase 1 are decent.

Aren't You at least a bit worried about the safety ?

[2020]

Aren't You at least a bit worried about the safety ?

god damnit they already did a study where they checked treatment's safety! It turned out to be safe. Get over it

[greatjob!]

They're already recruiting and I've signed up! Finding 3000 men shouldn't be difficult if the results of phase 1 are decent.
What are the requirements for participants? Do you have to be off propecia and rogaine? Also do you know in what cities the trials will be conducted?

[2020]

What are the requirements for participants? Do you have to be off propecia and rogaine? Also do you know in what cities the trials will be conducted?

most likely not anywhere in the first world countries ....

[greatjob!]

most likely not anywhere in the first world countries ....

I think the trials going on now are in the country of Georgia, I would think that to up the participant numbers they would expand the number of sites as well, just curious.

[ccmethinning]

Aren't You at least a bit worried about the safety ?

death before baldness

[jpm]

death before baldness

haha! well its for the good for all of us that some people are willing to take the minimal risk. If no human participated in trials, medicine wouldn't be where it is today

and stredssedtothebald do you stay in on windy days for fear of being blown over or rainy days for fear of drowning in a puddle. You always see the worst possible outcome for everything!!! I think pessimism and over worrying is your biggest problem not baldness

[gmonasco]

god damnit they already did a study where they checked treatment's safety! It turned out to be safe.

Uh, no. Just no.

Phase I trials do not demonstrate a product to be safe; they are performed on small groups to identify any obvious health concerns before moving on to the next phase of testing. Safety issues may still be uncovered in later phases of testing as the sizes of the sample groups increase (as demonstrated by a number of products that have been recalled for safety issues even after finishing clinical trials and reaching the market).

[Maradona]

Uh, no. Just no.

Phase I trials do not demonstrate a product to be safe; they are performed on small groups to identify any obvious health concerns before moving on to the next phase of testing. Safety issues may still be uncovered in later phases of testing as the sizes of the sample groups increase (as demonstrated by a number of products that have been recalled for safety issues even after finishing clinical trials and reaching the market).

I wouldn't wait a second if it comes out or if they take me for the trial(i'd move to georgia, canada).

I'm concerned that it might not be effective for slick bald men...can they really reactivate those follicles? or will it only work for minituarized hairs...which Dr. Rolf hoffman suggested in an interview i've read somewhere.

I know they only recruit norwood 3 n 4 in the trial so thats not good news. I don't think I will have any hair left when the "SAVING" is here.


Sighs.....if only propecia didn't give me side effects...i wouldn't even be here.

[NotBelievingIt]

Aren't You at least a bit worried about the safety ?

RepliCel has repeatedly stated that they are using an autologous technique.

au·tol·o·gous (ô-tl-gs)
adj.
Derived or transferred from the same individual's body: autologous blood donation; an autologous bone marrow transplant.

What this means is, there is no foreign chemical introduced into the body.

The cells are multiplied in a neutral solution that is basically a pH of 7, the body has no reaction to it - or rather, shouldn't :)

In other words, all they are doing is taking your cells, multiplying them and putting them back, albeit in a different location.

The thing with their Phase I trial is that it is both a safety and efficacy. It can't not be. So while they will report no concerns, they will also know safety and efficacy, so the second set of trials is basically just more of the same - just on a larger patient base.

Thats the beauty of autologous techniques. Its already known to be perfectly safe*, but the FDA stands for Fraking Dumb Ass and won't acknowledge autologous separately then a chemical based drug trial.

I'm concerned that it might not be effective for slick bald men...can they really reactivate those follicles? or will it only work for minituarized hairs...which Dr. Rolf hoffman suggested in an interview i've read somewhere.

I know they only recruit norwood 3 n 4 in the trial so thats not good news. I don't think I will have any hair left when the "SAVING" is here.

Slick Bald men are likely to see significantly less, or slower, growth in my opinion. It would depend entirely upon just how dormant the folliciles are. Did they really just stop growing, or is their growth phase so shortened that they barely/never breach the surface? The hair needs strength to push through the skin, so if it lacks that strength, the DSC might just provide the backbone needed. If the DSC really does shield the follicile it should in theory return to normal growth cycles. Growth stimulants like Minoxidil or other topicals/orals might need to be taken to speed the process up though, but once the growth has taken hold at acceptable levels, the treatment could be stopped because it would not be needed to maintain the growth.

Its fun to theorize! But also depressing to imagine it not working like that :)

One concern that should be noted with being totally bald is that the growth would potentially be spotty for quite some time and might look terrible. Spotty growth when there already is hair would be tolerable though, IMO.

[StressedToTheBald]

Phase I trials do not demonstrate a product to be safe; they are performed on small groups to identify any obvious health concerns before moving on to the next phase of testing. Safety issues may still be uncovered in later phases of testing as the sizes of the sample groups increase (as demonstrated by a number of products that have been recalled for safety issues even after finishing clinical trials and reaching the market).

Exactly what I was thinking of.

[2020]

Thats the beauty of autologous techniques. Its already known to be perfectly safe*, but the FDA stands for Fraking Dumb Ass and won't acknowledge autologous separately then a chemical based drug trial.


isn't Replicel based in CANADA?

[StressedToTheBald]

RepliCel has repeatedly stated that they are using an autologous technique.

What this means is, there is no foreign chemical introduced into the body.

The cells are multiplied in a neutral solution that is basically a pH of 7, the body has no reaction to it - or rather, shouldn't :)



Yes, but stem cells for example can also be from one's own body, and cancer is one of the worries with stem cells.. These as far as I know are not stem cells, but still.. one should better be safe than sorry.

[NotBelievingIt]

isn't Replicel based in CANADA?

Yes, but their trials are occuring in the USA so they must go through the FDA. I'm sure the Canadian equivalent is in the loop too.

[Maradona]

RepliCel has repeatedly stated that they are using an autologous technique.



What this means is, there is no foreign chemical introduced into the body.

The cells are multiplied in a neutral solution that is basically a pH of 7, the body has no reaction to it - or rather, shouldn't :)

In other words, all they are doing is taking your cells, multiplying them and putting them back, albeit in a different location.

The thing with their Phase I trial is that it is both a safety and efficacy. It can't not be. So while they will report no concerns, they will also know safety and efficacy, so the second set of trials is basically just more of the same - just on a larger patient base.

Thats the beauty of autologous techniques. Its already known to be perfectly safe*, but the FDA stands for Fraking Dumb Ass and won't acknowledge autologous separately then a chemical based drug trial.



Slick Bald men are likely to see significantly less, or slower, growth in my opinion. It would depend entirely upon just how dormant the folliciles are. Did they really just stop growing, or is their growth phase so shortened that they barely/never breach the surface? The hair needs strength to push through the skin, so if it lacks that strength, the DSC might just provide the backbone needed. If the DSC really does shield the follicile it should in theory return to normal growth cycles. Growth stimulants like Minoxidil or other topicals/orals might need to be taken to speed the process up though, but once the growth has taken hold at acceptable levels, the treatment could be stopped because it would not be needed to maintain the growth.

Its fun to theorize! But also depressing to imagine it not working like that :)

One concern that should be noted with being totally bald is that the growth would potentially be spotty for quite some time and might look terrible. Spotty growth when there already is hair would be tolerable though, IMO.

well since there's an interview coming up in the baldtruth show before the results are published, these are the questions we should ask to the scientists. If they think, it can grow hair on slick bald spots or not.

[NotBelievingIt]

Yes, but stem cells for example can also be from one's own body, and cancer is one of the worries with stem cells.. These as far as I know are not stem cells, but still.. one should better be safe than sorry.

I agree.

The key difference though is a stem cell is undifferentiated. It has a far greater chance of differentiating and mutating along the way to introduce something that shouldn't be there, which is basically what cancer boils down to.

While not impossible with already differentiated cell multiplication, my highly accredited Internet Genetics Degree from Google University says it is far less likely.

[gmonasco]

Thats the beauty of autologous techniques. Its already known to be perfectly safe*, but the FDA stands for Fraking Dumb Ass and won't acknowledge autologous separately then a chemical based drug trial.

See the following comments earlier in this thread:

http://www.baldtruthtalk.com/showpost.php?p=43387&postcount=40

http://www.baldtruthtalk.com/showpost.php?p=43475&postcount=46

[greatjob!]

RepliCel has repeatedly stated that they are using an autologous technique.

In other words, all they are doing is taking your cells, multiplying them and putting them back, albeit in a different location.

Thats the beauty of autologous techniques. Its already known to be perfectly safe*, but the FDA stands for Fraking Dumb Ass and won't acknowledge autologous separately then a chemical based drug trial.

While I agree that there is more than likely not going to be any significant safety issues with Replicel’s treatment. The information you have posted is inaccurate. Just because you’re using an autologous treatment doesn't mean there are no risks. Cancer cells are your OWN cells that have begun to multiply uncontrolled or that are unable to undergo auto phagocytosis. The most common type of cancer is skin cancer because your skin cells are the cells that regenerate the most often via mitosis. During mitosis if there is a mutation of the DNA->RNA->Protein and the cell does not catch this mistake and go through auto phagocytosis, programmed cell death, there is a possibility that the cell may become cancerous. Most terminal cancers don't cause death by simply existing, they cause death when they migrate to other parts of the body and cause disorder.

Taking cells out of the body, forcing them to multiply, and re-injecting the multiplied cells will always pose a risk of becoming cancerous until we COMPLETLEY understand all mechanisms of the cell, and right now we still do not.

[NotBelievingIt]

Interesting reads.

See the following comments earlier in this thread:

http://www.baldtruthtalk.com/showpost.php?p=43387&postcount=40

http://www.baldtruthtalk.com/showpost.php?p=43475&postcount=46

Of the two, only the second one with:
But as far as Replicel is concerned, basically there is going to be a hyper-expression of genes and growth factors in vivo such as hasn't been seen in the scalp since you were a developing embryo. Who knows what that might do? It SHOULD be okay but there might be unknown processes going on that nobody yet knows about. Better safe than sorry.
...
So what happens if there are mutations along the line? What if a mutation happens early on and carries down through billions of daughter cells? What if those cells now hyper-express a protein that causes cancer? has the most bearing on RepliCel in my opinion.

I don't like the use of the term stem cell and embryo together. It implies they are undifferentiated stem cells and they are not.

[gmonasco]

I wouldn't wait a second if it comes out or if they take me for the trial (i'd move to georgia, canada).

Why? What would you expect to gain from being a participant in a Phase II clinical trial?

[eqvist]

A thing a wunder about. Do we really going to have the answer if it safe in just one year ?

[2020]

Don't care about safety.... 10% chance of death - don't care just grow me some hair!! :cool:

[Maradona]

Why? What would you expect to gain from being a participant in a Phase II clinical trial?

a rocking full head of hair?

:D

Don't care about safety.... 10% chance of death - don't care just grow me some hair!! :cool:

same.

[2020]

Yeah if they do enroll you into their study, then you would know in advance if their treatment worked or not.
If it did work then it would be safe to put all of your money into their stock and make that money 300% back! :D That's almost insider trading

[StressedToTheBald]

As I said, some people can only learn the hard way.. Recently saw a guy in another thread, his balls are nearly falling off but still he keeps on pumping himself with the man-poison called propecia.

As with anything, better wait a few months, see how it goes, what independent studies say.. and then if its safe, go for it.

[2020]

As I said, some people can only learn the hard way.. Recently saw a guy in another thread, his balls are nearly falling off but still he keeps on pumping himself with the man-poison called propecia.

As with anything, better wait a few months, see how it goes, what independent studies say.. and then if its safe, go for it.

We're not talking about Propecia now.... go away

[Sogeking]

First of all I am a layman when it comes to medicine, actually I don't consider myself to be competent enough to be called that.
However even I know that by participating in phase II trials in order to get full head of hair is unrealistic. That is not the prupose of these trials!

Taken from Replicel website:
The Phase I/IIa clinical trial, entitled “Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Human Autologous Hair Follicle Cells in Women and Men with Androgenetic Alopecia”, is:
randomized
single-centre
double-blind
placebo-controlled
Now first you have to realize that these trials are double-blind. So basically you could go end up in a placebo group although those who are running the trials may decide to treat one small part of your scalp (will clarify this) with the compound in question, and the other part would be placebo area (untreated).

So what did I mean about small part of your scalp?
Lets take Aderans here as example because the guys at Replicel didn't go into great detail about their trials, and since their treatments are in broad and crude way somewhat similar you could say the trials will be held
in same fashion.
Taken from http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01451190?term=aderans&rank=9

Intervention Details:
Biological: Autologous cultured dermal and epidermal cells
A piece of occipital scalp is taken from the subject. A mixed population of dermal cells from this tissue are expanded in culture. The cells are then harvested. These cells are then injected into the balding area of the scalp of the original subject.

So basically they inject you with your cells somewhere on your scalp. The area this cells are injected in may vary in size.
Even if it works you will get a patch of hair somewhere on your scalp and will have to wait for the full treatment just like the rest of the mortals.

Now all of that said, if you want to join these trials join them so you could help yourselves and others in proving a potential new treatment by knowing all the risks involved of course.


Since this is an autologus cell treatment there shouldn't be any serious side efects, but I must stress shouldn't.

I remain hopeful although a bit sceptical and pessimistic since that is my nature. However there is a lot of talk lately about Replicel but most of that talk is speculation and just basic... Well lies.

Hey even I speculated when comparing Replicel and Aderans trials but I found it necessary to show you that trials are not equivalent to treatments.
They are just that, trials. Safety will be monitored in all subsequent trials as it should be. And to all of you who are insisting in them (Replicel) releasing this before proving safety (and finishing phase III), I have to say you are too desperate and depressed too think clearly.

Think about it if this treatment gets out too early and in some rare instance it harms someone or someone claims it harmed them, no one will have access to this treatment.

We wait for phase I trials results, and then guess what? We wait for phase II trials results because thats the only thing we can really do. I know it sucks, your hair is vanishing and all we can do is wait but thats life for you.

You have it, then you lose it and/or you want it!

[Kiwi]

Thats why I got a HT. To make the waiting more tolerable.

I wish I didnt though. I should have just shaved my head...

[chrisis]

Kiwi why do you regret your hair transplant? Surely it's the ultimate answer right now if you have both the money and a good surgeon?

[2020]

Thats why I got a HT. To make the waiting more tolerable.

those dead follicles will be revived and then you'll have 5x more hair in your transplant spots than anywhere else....
everyone with a transplant will look stupid.

[25 going on 65]

those dead follicles will be revived and then you'll have 5x more hair in your transplant spots than anywhere else....
everyone with a transplant will look stupid.

I don't understand why you feel this way? Are you saying the grafts will interfere with the scalp's ability to receive cell treatment? Or just that the regrown native hairs combined with the transplanted hairs will look strange?

[2020]

Or just that the regrown native hairs combined with the transplanted hairs will look strange?

^ this. Plus you just wasted 10K on some outdated treatment.... Hair transplants will be a history soon.
Who will want to get a hair transplant then if there was some injection that could revive all of your dead follicles?

[NotBelievingIt]

Transplants will likely become the equivalent of the bad toupee, they won't go away. Neither will the toupee.

In other words, only people who can't afford a cell treatment will do transplants.


But that also depends entirely upon how 'precise' they can make new growth with cell treatments. As I mentioned before it would get annoying to have to shave or pluck your forehead :)

If it revived only the dormant/dead it won't be an issue.

[25 going on 65]

^ this. Plus you just wasted 10K on some outdated treatment.... Hair transplants will be a history soon.
Who will want to get a hair transplant then if there was some injection that could revive all of your dead follicles?

Oh. Well on the bright side, grafts can be removed if I'm not mistaken. Also I think having 1.5x of one's natural hair thickness wouldn't look as bad as most of us look with 0-0.5x. :)
I'm like you, I'm waiting on progress from next-gen treatments before I even consider transplants in my future. But I'm also in my 20's and in early stages of loss. I can understand why a 40-year-old NW4 or 5, who is horribly depressed, wouldn't want to wait it out another five years.

[bigentries]

^ this. Plus you just wasted 10K on some outdated treatment.... Hair transplants will be a history soon.
Worrisome optimism

People said the same thing about Intercytex 5 years ago. You could have had 5 years of peace of mind instead of disappointment if you had a hair transplant back then, but people still hoped for the better

Until we have a clear release date, it's not fair to judge people's actions if baldness is too much of a problem.
That's why I don't judge people who go for a strip procedure if they need it so much.
I rather have a scar in the back of my head that no one would notice and live a happy than be an extremely depressed bald guy

Besides, if the only problem is that a hair transplant might look "weird" with HM (that no one knows for sure), laser hair removal is pretty cheap, I'm pretty sure a solution would be available for those cases, besides obvious ones like a lot of gel or very short hairstyles

[25 going on 65]

People said the same thing about Intercytex 5 years ago.

Fair comment. Companies are definitely making progress but I'm reluctant to rely on any kind of projected timeline right now.

I happen to be optimistic about next-generation treatments this decade, but if I turn 35 and am still hearing "just a few more years," I will very possibly be looking into surgical restoration at that point. But it also depends on how long my medicinal regimen stays effective.

The uncertainty in all this sometimes concerns me. If I somehow knew I was the type of person who can keep his hair for 12-14 years on meds, I would definitely feel more "secure."

[ryan555]

I think some people are grossly misinformed on how these therapies will work. There is nothing currently being tested that will regrow a full head of hair or grow thick hair on bald scalp. Optimistically, these treatments will replace meds like propecia and rogaine and may offer a little more growth. People who have transplants will benefit from these treatments in stalling future loss and thickening up the transplanted areas, but a good transplanst will still look good. With regard to timeline, it will likely be at least a couple more years before anything is available, and even then it will likely require a trip to Asia to get them. It could easily be 3 to 5 years until they are available in the US, assuming that funding remains available and the trials go well - nothing is a guarantee at this point.

[bigentries]

I think some people are grossly misinformed on how these therapies will work. There is nothing currently being tested that will regrow a full head of hair or grow thick hair on bald scalp. Optimistically, these treatments will replace meds like propecia and rogaine and may offer a little more growth. People who have transplants will benefit from these treatments in stalling future loss and thickening up the transplanted areas, but a good transplanst will still look good. With regard to timeline, it will likely be at least a couple more years before anything is available, and even then it will likely require a trip to Asia to get them. It could easily be 3 to 5 years until they are available in the US, assuming that funding remains available and the trials go well - nothing is a guarantee at this point.

True, I believe, if they are even released in our lifetimes, that there will be several generations of HM procedures, each one learning from past experiences, but we will probably be too old when a "perfect" procedure is released.

I don't know about Replicel, but Aderans clearly looks like it will need a hair transplant reinforcement to create a good hairline

[25 going on 65]

Well that's a bummer.

[NeedHairASAP]

we honestly don't know if any of these treatments are viable, never mind their release date....


just because a few (literally a few) companies are TESTING some ideas does not mean they are going to work. where are the photos? replicel has nothing but pixar movies. histogen has some crappy macro photographs that are 3 years old. Aderans has pictures of hair growing all f*cked up in different directions (and i believe their most current news release said they can't figure out how to not grow tumor balls of hair that sprout in every direction). This is the reality of where we are at....


Speculation is okay, but can you guys limit it to speculation on some evidence and not speculating on your feelings or hopes. im so tired or coming to see who updated this thread and finding completely baseless guessing and speculation.



i hope these things pan out. I wouldn't mind getting a hairtransplant along with them. Especially with procedures like Gho's where downtime, scarring, etc. etc. are all much better than ANY strip/fue. The guy really cares about his patients and the results. He doesn't do mega sessions that OBVIOUSLY ruin your scalp, the yield, and the healing of the donor. He doesn't stick you with needles, instead they have some crazy numbing agent they use via a dermis pad of sorts. The guy does ACTUAL research to, for example, find out saline solution SUCKS, and then he makes advancements off of these findings, such as his growth solution rather than saline. There is a lot of money to be made giving transplants, and a lot of risk in doing research... which is why we see HT surgeons preoccupied giving 6k graft megasessions instead of research possible dead ends. THANK YOU GHO for evolving one of the slowest moving industries in the world. If it weren't for his procedure I would agree with you guys that getting a HT isn't worth it.





I've been on these boards awhile and histogen hasn't released anything significant in two years...just a few pictureless updates claiming that hair is still there/"growing"... not very detailed




Also, new treatments could be cheaper than hair transplants-- which are very tedious and labor intensive. maybe you need one guy and an hour to stick you with a needle vs. 5 technicians and a doctor performing surgery on you for an entire day.

[StressedToTheBald]

we honestly don't know if any of these treatments are viable, never mind their release date....


just because a few (literally a few) companies are TESTING some ideas does not mean they are going to work. where are the photos? replicel has nothing but pixar movies. histogen has some crappy macro photographs that are 3 years old. Aderans has pictures of hair growing all f*cked up in different directions (and i believe their most current news release said they can't figure out how to not grow tumor balls of hair that sprout in every direction). This is the reality of where we are at....


Speculation is okay, but can you guys limit it to speculation on some evidence and not speculating on your feelings or hopes



i hope these things pan out. I wouldn't mind getting a hairtransplant along with them. Especially with procedures like Gho's where downtime, scarring, etc. etc. are all much better than ANY strip/fue. The guy really cares about his patients and the results. He doesn't do mega sessions that OBVIOUSLY ruin your scalp, the yield, and the healing of the donor. He doesn't stick you with needles, instead they have some crazy numbing agent they use via a dermis pad of sorts. The guy does ACTUAL research to, for example, find out saline solution SUCKS, and then he makes advancements off of these findings, such as his growth solution rather than saline.



I've been on these boards awhile and histogen hasn't released anything significant in two years...just a few pictureless updates claiming that hair is still there/"growing"... not very detailed

I too see that way too many people talk about Replicel as if its a done thing, some are even buying stocks with hope that they're gonna make 10x money increase if the cure happens.

Honestly, I'm not raising my hopes too high.. I bet plenty of the same 'cure' promises were around 5-10 years ago and nothing has happened although we're already in 2012.

[Maradona]

we honestly don't know if any of these treatments are viable, never mind their release date....


just because a few (literally a few) companies are TESTING some ideas does not mean they are going to work. where are the photos? replicel has nothing but pixar movies. histogen has some crappy macro photographs that are 3 years old. Aderans has pictures of hair growing all f*cked up in different directions (and i believe their most current news release said they can't figure out how to not grow tumor balls of hair that sprout in every direction). This is the reality of where we are at....


Speculation is okay, but can you guys limit it to speculation on some evidence and not speculating on your feelings or hopes



i hope these things pan out. I wouldn't mind getting a hairtransplant along with them. Especially with procedures like Gho's where downtime, scarring, etc. etc. are all much better than ANY strip/fue. The guy really cares about his patients and the results. He doesn't do mega sessions that OBVIOUSLY ruin your scalp, the yield, and the healing of the donor. He doesn't stick you with needles, instead they have some crazy numbing agent they use via a dermis pad of sorts. The guy does ACTUAL research to, for example, find out saline solution SUCKS, and then he makes advancements off of these findings, such as his growth solution rather than saline.



I've been on these boards awhile and histogen hasn't released anything significant in two years...just a few pictureless updates claiming that hair is still there/"growing"... not very detailed

I agree with everything you said man. Replicel is about our best chance to get a full head of hair, but we don't know anything at this point other than it is possible in theory.

But the more I study replicel, the more I realize it's gonna be tough to get a full head of hair for slick bald men but IT WILL BE beneficial for women , at least most of them and those who are starting to bald or diffuse thinners provided they did not reach slick baldness already. Again this is all my opinion from the information I've gathered, don't be hating.

So at this point I am embracing the baldness little by little...hopefully I have the balls to shave it soon and move on.

On a side note, i bought 500 bucks worth of replicel, hopefully I get some reward at least :D.

I'll see ya all guys when the results are up :o

[2020]

replicel has nothing but pixar movies.


100% of the time they regrew at least 50% of hair on mice.... They'll have something by March I'm sure.


histogen has some crappy macro photographs that are 3 years old.


That lawsuit by SkinMedica slowed them down.... their latest study results are due by December THIS YEAR.

[NeedHairASAP]

100% of the time they regrew at least 50% of hair on mice....

.

doesn't really mean much. they've regrown animal hair at least a few times and it has lead nowhere. Do you mean March as in 9 days? or March 2013?

still don't get what makes you so "sure" they'll have something in 10 days to announce...





That lawsuit by SkinMedica slowed them down.... their latest study results are due by December THIS YEAR.

That slowed them down, then the earthquake in japan.. then...

hopefully they have something real to show us in 10 months... approximately 2-3 years after the original big press release with crappy photos

[2020]

doesn't really mean much. they've regrown animal hair at least a few times and it has lead nowhere.


yes, but they did it over and over again and they were successful 100% of the time....


Do you mean March as in 9 days? or March 2013?


It's actually April... my bad


RepliCel remains on schedule to release the initial review of efficacy results in April 2012.

http://www.replicel.com/replicel-provides-quarterly-update-on-first-in-man-clinical-trials/


still don't get what makes you so "sure" they'll have something in 10 days to announce...


We'll see :D


hopefully they have something real to show us in 10 months... approximately 2-3 years after the original big press release with crappy photos


crappy photos?? There is only one photo and who cares, read the actual data.

http://histogen.com/aboutus/news_events.htm#25

^ looks promising to me....

[Follicle Death Row]

I think some people are grossly misinformed on how these therapies will work. There is nothing currently being tested that will regrow a full head of hair or grow thick hair on bald scalp. Optimistically, these treatments will replace meds like propecia and rogaine and may offer a little more growth. People who have transplants will benefit from these treatments in stalling future loss and thickening up the transplanted areas, but a good transplanst will still look good. With regard to timeline, it will likely be at least a couple more years before anything is available, and even then it will likely require a trip to Asia to get them. It could easily be 3 to 5 years until they are available in the US, assuming that funding remains available and the trials go well - nothing is a guarantee at this point.

I'm inclined to agree. However I do think this might be the one to put a permanent stop to the progression of mpb, unlike finasteride which ultimately doesn't do that. That in and of itself would be pretty big for some. Probably will be a little late for me but I'd be very happy for those that catch hairloss early and can avail of this or something like it in the future. Wouldn't want any young man (or woman) to go through this bs.

[DepressedByHairLoss]

I dunno, I do have pretty high hopes for Replicel and Histogen. I highly doubt that their treatments or possible cures will only be marginally better than Rogaine and Propecia. Rogaine doesn't do much of anything so I'm pretty sure that it will be better than that. Propecia's main purpose is to prevent hair loss, and Replicel and Histogen are looking to grow new hair rather than simply prevent hair loss, so I don't think that its comparable to Propecia/finasteride. Its true that nothing has consistently been proven yet, but Histogen's and Replicel's methods are really backed by solid science and years of research, and they have high hopes. I know that Intercytex didn't pan out as hoped but I don't think they had such top hair scientists on their team like Replicel does in Drs. McElwee and Hoffmann. Plus, I remember early interviews with Intercytex's scientists and even Ken Washenik, and they even stated early on that their treatment wouldn't replace the results of a good hair transplant. Replicel and Histogen have much higher hopes than that.
Also, I don't see why Replicel or Histogen couldn't grow a significant amount of hair on slick bald men. I've been doing lots of research on this as well and Replicel claims to wake up dormant follicles and create new ones. Many reputable scientists including Cotsarelis have stated that follicles even on slick bald men are not lost, but are simply dormant. If Replicel or even Histogen achieve their goals, then the creation of a full head of hair could certainly be achieved.
Let's remain optimistic that we can regain the heads of hair that we used to have. I mean, what's the alternative? To accept living life as balding men.

[Thinning@30]

Wasn't Replicel able to grow hair on the footpads of mice--a place where hair does not usually grow? If they can do this, I don't see why they wouldn't be able to grow hair on bald patches of human skin. At any rate, I agree that everything is idle speculation at this point, we won't know anything for certain until the results of the Phase I trial get released.

If they wait until April 30 to release the results I think the anticipation will kill me.

[25 going on 65]

If they wait until April 30 to release the results I think the anticipation will kill me.

For some reason I thought they were releasing results in March. This is too much suspense. :D

[NeedHairASAP]

I highly doubt that their treatments or possible cures will only be marginally better than Rogaine and Propecia. Rogaine doesn't do much of anything so I'm pretty sure that it will be better than that.


this is a good point. It is nice to look at the issue through that pair of glasses. That propecia and minox suck so bad that Replicels hurdle is really manageable with a bit of an effort



I really do want this to work guys. I just don't want to get my hopes up.



Histogen has been silent, besides lame press releases... for and ENTIRE YEAR

[Dasani]

I've been absent from the forums for the past couple of months, like many people here I've simply been waiting for replicel's clinical trial results at the end of Q1 2012. We'll now we're about 2 months away and I'm still fairly optimistic. I've ready that histogen is right in the middle of their clinical trials but they're doing it in the philippines instead of singapore.

I first noticed my hair thinning on the crown this past spring, I was pretty surprised and upset since I was only 22. I'm pleased to say I've had great results with finasteride (1.25mg/day) and minoxidil (rogaine foam). My hair has improved to a point where I can't detect any thinning. It seems to continue getting thicker as well.

I feel even better if replicel has positive results from their clinicals. Who knows, I might be one of the very first guys to avoid going bald. I've heard spencer say he first noticed his hair thinning at 22. I've also heard him say his 'thickening' period on propecia was even 2-3 years (then stable).
I wonder how he feels about potential for guys that are basically in the position today that he was in when he was 22, with the current treatments we now have the near-future potential treatments. In fact I've also heard him say something along the lines of "If you're just starting to lose your hair now, there's a very good chance you'll never have to live as a bald person" -- And he said this before replicel was even known (around the time histogen came out with their clinical trail results)

I've been lurking around these forums for the better part of a year and I've listened to Spencer quite a bit, and I've gotta say I trust him. Everyone can definitely be cautiously optimistic about the next 3 years.

[WashedOut]

I'm inclined to agree. However I do think this might be the one to put a permanent stop to the progression of mpb, unlike finasteride which ultimately doesn't do that. That in and of itself would be pretty big for some. Probably will be a little late for me but I'd be very happy for those that catch hairloss early and can avail of this or something like it in the future. Wouldn't want any young man (or woman) to go through this bs.

I agree with this. Even if it can't grow hair on a bald head imagine if from this point on every man or woman that noticed any loss of hair went to get a one time injection and never had to lose hair again. That's pretty big.

[ryan555]

this is a good point. It is nice to look at the issue through that pair of glasses. That propecia and minox suck so bad that Replicels hurdle is really manageable with a bit of an effort



I really do want this to work guys. I just don't want to get my hopes up.



Histogen has been silent, besides lame press releases... for and ENTIRE YEAR

Histogen is right in the middle of a trial in Asia right now. They are moving forward full steam.

[NeedHairASAP]

Histogen is right in the middle of a trial in Asia right now. They are moving forward full steam.

definitely

[Kirby_]

In fact I've also heard him say something along the lines of "If you're just starting to lose your hair now, there's a very good chance you'll never have to live as a bald person" -- And he said this before replicel was even known (around the time histogen came out with their clinical trail results).
As a 30 year old who's only noticed hair loss within the last year and a but, I seriously hope he is true... I mean, there's bound to be something emerge, in terms of improved treatments, eventually.

[BoSox]

As a 30 year old who's only noticed hair loss within the last year and a but, I seriously hope he is true... I mean, there's bound to be something emerge, in terms of improved treatments, eventually.


I'm 27, and my thinning has gotten worse.. I hope this comes out soon because it seems like this kind of treatment will only be effective for those who are in the early stages of balding.. but i hope thats not the case and that it can turn a NW 6 to a NW 1.

grrrrrrrrrrr this is so ****ing stressfull.

[NeedHairASAP]

In fact I've also heard him say something along the lines of "If you're just starting to lose your hair now, there's a very good chance you'll never have to live as a bald person" -- And he said this before replicel was even known (around the time histogen came out with their clinical trail results)


so... histogen came out with a result 2 years ago... then spencer declares that people wont have to live as bald people... and this means what? other than spencer jumps the gun with guesses/statements faster than forum users?


my life blows and I can't wait until 2016-17 to recover it... I'm going to Gho this year and then hoping that (or maybe one or two more HSTs) last me til 2020 when they have real treatments ON THE MARKET.... I dont want nw1, I'd take a very mature hairline that looks reasonable when buzzed



its 2012... the chance is close to ZERO that any of these companies (going at the pace they are) get ANYTHING to THE ACTUAL MARKET in the next three years...

it's been two years since histogen released the single picture... they were saying we could get it in Asia in 2013 and well.... thats not going to happen... if it takes histogen two years to release a second sh*tty picture I can only imagine what were in for the next four years....


and to replicel, HELLO, quit waisting your time making cartoon pixar movies about how your garbage "floats around under the dermis" and magically finds sleeping folllicles... how about you just concentrate on giving some real results in the next year? i could really care less about videos with cartoons and Corporate management

[25 going on 65]

I think it was actually a reasonable prediction, if he specified people who are just starting to lose their hair.
With the Big 3, you can typically delay the progress of your hair loss by at least 5 years (10-15 for some). Dutasteride can extend that if finasteride loses effectiveness.
Also, just because your regimen starts losing efficacy, doesn't mean you have to start living as a bald person... it usually just means you'll be slowly losing ground over time. You'll still be much better off than with no treatments.
That's all to say nothing of transplants, which can extend the life of your hair by many years.

A NW2 today, who is determined to stop his hairloss, should definitely be able to hold out until 2020. By that point there will almost definitely be new, improved forms of treatment (even if they're not necessarily "cures"). Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but that's a criticism I'll gladly accept on this topic :cool:

It's all the generations of dudes before us who had this damn MPB gene, who I truly feel sorry for. This is the most hopeful time there has ever been to suffer from hair loss; we're really quite lucky when you consider our species has been around 100-250 thousand years, and we just happened to be born in the first generation that can really do something about genetic alopecia. :)

[chrisis]

we're really quite lucky when you consider our species has been around 100-250 thousand years, and we just happened to be born in the first generation that can really do something about genetic alopecia. :)

I think we're one of the first generations to give a shit about it. Before ours we were fighting wars and trying to feed families. We weren't brainwashed by media/society, telling us we're imperfect and that something is wrong with us because of our genes.

Hairloss is basically a "first world problem".

[2020]

so... histogen came out with a result 2 years ago... then spencer declares that people wont have to live as bald people... and this means what? other than spencer jumps the gun with guesses/statements faster than forum users?


Histogen was sued by SkinMedica so that wasted a lot of their time.
Also, during that time Histogen lost a lot of investors because they thought that Histogen would lose the case and without that patent their research could not continue.
Histogen won the case and resumed their studies. Results from their latest study are due in December 2012.




and to replicel, HELLO, quit waisting your time making cartoon pixar movies about how your garbage "floats around under the dermis" and magically finds sleeping folllicles... how about you just concentrate on giving some real results in the next year? i could really care less about videos with cartoons and Corporate management

go to YouTube and type in stem cells. If it can grow new fingers, I'm sure it can grow new follicles....

[jpm]

I think we're one of the first generations to give a shit about it. Before ours we were fighting wars and trying to feed families. We weren't brainwashed by media/society, telling us we're imperfect and that something is wrong with us because of our genes.

Hairloss is basically a "first world problem".

I agree, its a only a 'rich' problem, and I mean that in comparison to everyone else in the world.

I'm sure poorer people also care about hair loss, but in their priorities, feeding their family, not being killed, getting a job etc are much much bigger concerns, that baldness pales in comparison

[25 going on 65]

A sense of self-image is inherent in people and I think to some extent, there's always been someone around who cared about hair loss. But I'm sure it's true that it's a much less pressing concern for people with more immediate, dangerous issues. (Maslow's hierarchy of needs.)

Another thought- for most of the time our species has been here, the norm was to die in your teens or 20's, so the rate of genetic baldness was probably a lot lower.

[Tacola]

Has anyone tried to call them, or get in touch with them to hear that they acctually will give some information about the effectivnes of the injections, and not only information that shows that they are safe? I have tried to e-mail them, but since I`m in Scandinavia I dont feel like calling them :)

Crossing my fingers that this will give us some good news!! In the meantime I`m off to see Gho in mid august for a treatment. Hopefully this will give me another year or two with 1200 grafts planted on my head :)

[chrisis]

Another thought- for most of the time our species has been here, the norm was to die in your teens or 20's, so the rate of genetic baldness was probably a lot lower.

I think the high infant mortality rate skewed the average lifespan. I'm sure many lived into their 40s and beyond.

The strongest likelihood is that nobody cared anywhere near as much about vanity as we do today. We've been conditioned this way. Remember when you were a child and weren't vain at all? I reckon it was like that for your whole life at one point.

Of course it's all about getting a partner, but mating wasn't always about looks, it was about survival - although we do still have primal instincts in that regard.

[25 going on 65]

I was thinking "besides people who died as babies," but you could be right. My understanding of our stone age ancestors is that anyone who lived beyond 30-35 was old and rare. But obviously, I'm not an archeologist.
Either way, it's safe to say they were definitely less worried about hair loss (except maybe when it got really cold or really sunny... no aloe gel in those times).

I do remember being less vain as a child, but I think the bio/neuro changes that happen during puberty account for some of that. You start caring a lot more about what the opposite gender thinks of you.
Society is definitely a factor too though. Before mass media, good-looking people with amazing heads of hair would have only been known in their respective areas. Now the Brad Pitts of the world are plastered all over every magazine, website and TV station for us Norwood-Hamilton residents to envy. :p We're not just comparing ourselves with people in our immediate community anymore, but with people from all over the world.

At least the same technology advances that brought about this situation, allow us to bitch about it on TBT.

[Follicle Death Row]

So true about Maslow's hierarchy of needs. That's actually a great way of looking at the whole mpb self image thing. Everything is kind of relative to the environment you live in I guess.

[gmonasco]

Another thought- for most of the time our species has been here, the norm was to die in your teens or 20's, so the rate of genetic baldness was probably a lot lower.

Uh, no. You're confusing average life expectancy at birth (which until recent times skewed very low due to high infant/child mortality rates) with average lifespan (i.e., average life expectancy after attainment of adulthood). For a very long time now, the bulk of persons who survived childhood could expect to live well past their late teens/early 20s.

[ccmethinning]

So true about Maslow's hierarchy of needs. That's actually a great way of looking at the whole mpb self image thing. Everything is kind of relative to the environment you live in I guess.

I guess we should all move to Somalia.

[25 going on 65]

Uh, no. You're confusing average life expectancy at birth (which until recent times skewed very low due to high infant/child mortality rates) with average lifespan (i.e., average life expectancy after attainment of adulthood). For a very long time now, the bulk of persons who survived childhood could expect to live well past their late teens/early 20s.

chrisis brought this up also. According to wiki, a 1961 Encyclopedia Brittanica estimated the life expectancy for those who survived to 15 in the upper paleolithic era at 54. Going by that, it seems you'd both be right!

More prehistoric cue balls than I expected. :D

[gmonasco]

My understanding of our stone age ancestors is that anyone who lived beyond 30-35 was old and rare. But obviously, I'm not an archeologist. Either way, it's safe to say they were definitely less worried about hair loss

I don't know about attitudes towards hair during the Paleolithic Era, but as far back as two thousand years ago Julius Caesar was suffering from MPB and vainly tried to disguise it using all the same methods that men employ today: wearing a toupée, shaving his head, and sporting head coverings. And that was well before the development of mass media ...

[NotBelievingIt]

Mirrors were also a lot less common way back.

If you don't know what you look like, you are less likely to actually care.

Plus, mass media that everyone reads and sees contains pictures of a small percentage of people who are well above average in genetic favoritism. Thus what you have to compare yourself against is highly biased towards "what looks good" and not what is normal.

[25 going on 65]

I don't know about attitudes towards hair during the Paleolithic Era, but as far back as two thousand years ago Julius Caesar was suffering from MPB and vainly tried to disguise it using all the same methods that men employ today: wearing a toupée, shaving his head, and sporting head coverings. And that was well before the development of mass media ...

Maybe so but Caesar definitely had his basic needs covered, so he was left with time and energy to reflect on his scalp. ;)

Besides, he traveled around conquering other societies. When that's your job, you have to look good for the ladies on the road. You don't want them staring at your hairline when you've just slaughtered all their men in battle and are parading through their village in glory.

[Sogeking]

Maybe so but Caesar definitely had his basic needs covered, so he was left with time and energy to reflect on his scalp. ;)

Besides, he traveled around conquering other societies. When that's your job, you have to look good for the ladies on the road. You don't want them staring at your hairline when you've just slaughtered all their men in battle and are parading through their village in glory.

Well Romans had slaves. And I don't think he had any problems with obtaining women despite his hair status. Most likely he wanted to keep his hair because of his self image. But sure it bothered him most likely.
However if I had lived in that period, hair wouldn't be much of a problem to me, since 80% of the reason I want my hair back is to be more attractive to women. I believe I would get a woman back then, however medical care, safety, electrical power, basic human rights, protection from marauding barbarians and so on, not so much.

I like my odds much better than Caesars despite the difference in 'love life'.... :D


Btw does anyone know the exact date in April or atleast a week when Replicel should show us their results?

[Follicle Death Row]

Isn't the haircut named after Caesar? The bangs covering the receding hairline. :)

[clandestine]

Isn't the haircut named after Caesar? The bangs covering the receding hairline. :)

My bangs never grow out long enough to cover the receding hairline. It's as if where the bangs should be growing, there's no growth whatsoever. i.e. the middle 'island' grows long while there are no bangs to be found on either side. Uhg.

[Follicle Death Row]

My bangs never grow out long enough to cover the receding hairline. It's as if where the bangs should be growing, there's no growth whatsoever. i.e. the middle 'island' grows long while there are no bangs to be found on either side. Uhg.

I'm getting there too. This do will only hold up for so long. Sucks when you're forehead is already on the long side pre mpb. :(

[clandestine]

I'm getting there too. This do will only hold up for so long. Sucks when you're forehead is already on the long side pre mpb. :(

Eh, we are bound by genetic traits. My head is rather small mate; we've all got qualities we wish we could change (this, not even taking in to account hair loss). feelsbadman.jpg

Just have to work what you've got I suppose.

[NeedHairASAP]

I think the high infant mortality rate skewed the average lifespan. I'm sure many lived into their 40s and beyond.

The strongest likelihood is that nobody cared anywhere near as much about vanity as we do today. We've been conditioned this way. Remember when you were a child and weren't vain at all? I reckon it was like that for your whole life at one point.

Of course it's all about getting a partner, but mating wasn't always about looks, it was about survival - although we do still have primal instincts in that regard.

egyptians wore wigs

[WashedOut]

egyptians wore wigs

Egyptians shaved their natural hair and wore wigs. Back then a bald cone head shaped woman was beautiful.

[gmonasco]

Mirrors were also a lot less common way back.

Glass mirrors, perhaps, but there were plenty of other kinds. Like water.

If you don't know what you look like, you are less likely to actually care.

By that reasoning, we should expect most blind people to be unkempt in appearance. And yet, they aren't.

Plus, mass media that everyone reads and sees contains pictures of a small percentage of people who are well above average in genetic favoritism. Thus what you have to compare yourself against is highly biased towards "what looks good" and not what is normal.

And, of course, artists of previous eras never favored "people who are well above average in genetic favoritism."

[TheLongnHairyProphet]

this conversation is definitely making my hair grow longer :eek:.

[melwou7245]

Apologies that I have to be the one to break the gentleman's agreement of not posting in this topic unless something's happened, but I got a mail the weekend from Replicel talking about shares being traded and bought for some-or-other entity; quite frankly my brain switched off when I reached the second sentence.

Honestly the fact that we've not heard anything can mean one of two things: Either it's turned out to be such a roaring successful trial they're buying up all the shares they can and are planning to deliver the knock-out blow to hit the world by storm; or there's something that went wrong or the results are lackluster enough to force them to rethink their strategy and somehow put a positive spin on it.

Either way they're taking way too long to publish results for a safety trial. :confused:

[melwou7245]

Apologies that I have to be the one to break the gentleman's agreement of not posting in this topic unless something's happened, but I got a mail the weekend from Replicel talking about shares being traded and bought for some-or-other entity; quite frankly my brain switched off when I reached the second sentence.

Honestly the fact that we've not heard anything can mean one of two things: Either it's turned out to be such a roaring successful trial they're buying up all the shares they can and are planning to deliver the knock-out blow to hit the world by storm; or there's something that went wrong or the results are lackluster enough to force them to rethink their strategy and somehow put a positive spin on it.

Either way they're taking way too long to publish results for a safety trial. :confused:

[NotBelievingIt]

You are reading too much into the lack of news.

Absence of Knowledge is not Knowledge of Absence.

[Kiwi]

You are reading too much into the lack of news.

Absence of Knowledge is not Knowledge of Absence.

That is a nice way of putting it ;)

@melwou7245 - Replicell are not allowed to announce their results until the end of the FDA trials. There are numerous reasons - its not rocket science. I'd encourage you to read up more on this topic :)