Replicel Blog

[BoSox]

New blog featured on their site:

http://www.replicel.com/biotuesday-blog-post-featuring-replicel-life-sciences-inc/


"After two decades of research and collaboration, RepliCel Life Sciences Inc. (OTCBB: REPCF) in the first quarter next year will learn whether its natural hair cell replication technology has the potential to become the world’s first, minimally invasive solution for pattern baldness and general hair loss in men and women."


I'm so nervous, I really hope this is the real deal!

[Sogeking]

Here's hoping that this works with the worst success rate at 10-15%. For me it doesn't matter much because in this type of treatment effects would be compoundable. I do however hope the regrowth is much better.

All we can do is wait and hope. I expect first results in March or April.

[Losing_It]

Lets hope for postive results.

[AgainstThis]

If it's legit, it'll be the first good news I get in GENERAL for a very long time.

[dkayla77]

wow....they are going for it and i can sense a quiet confidence!

[Follicle Death Row]

We shall see. Tbh they actually need to hit it out of the park with this trial because the dose of cells is supposed to be way above and beyond what they think or hope will go to market. That's because this is the initial safety trial. Fingers crossed. 50% would be outrageous and we could consider it all over then. It would only be a matter of time after that.

[BackwardsBalding]

Replicel looks good but the real results will be with histogen. They are only keeping their mouths shut now because they know for fact they have the cure.

[BoSox]

I think they can do better then 50%, they had 100% with the animal testing.. I know they are just animals, and they grow hair at the flip of a switch..but it's still the same concept. Fingers crosssssed

[Follicle Death Row]

I think they can do better then 50%, they had 100% with the animal testing.. I know they are just animals, and they grow hair at the flip of a switch..but it's still the same concept. Fingers crosssssed

I like the optimism. It's infectious. Now I have to try and not get too excited about this. I don't see Histogen getting it done. I see it as between Replicel and Aderans, and whoever else is going down this route. You only have to look at what's going on in the Wake Forest Institute of Regenerative Medicine to see that this is the way forward.

[BackwardsBalding]

I like the optimism. It's infectious. Now I have to try and not get too excited about this. I don't see Histogen getting it done. I see it as between Replicel and Aderans, and whoever else is going down this route. You only have to look at what's going on in the Wake Forest Institute of Regenerative Medicine to see that this is the way forward.


Hmmm.... Not sure where the lack of faith in Histogen is coming from. They have already showed a singificant amount of hair growth and they are running all over the world getting funding and they are in phase 2 trials. All things considered I would say histogen is the leader here on the simple fact they have already shown positive results and are only now testing variables in those results with different treatment amounts. I see histogen with a full blown product working well by early 2012(out side the U.S.), Replicel by 2013 and my ERT methods of course are out...right now. LOl that was a joke...kind of

[DepressedByHairLoss]

Man, I really hope this works. It's these potential cures like Histogen and Replicel that are really keeping me alive during these awful times with hair loss. The more companies that we have trying to regrow hair, the better. I believe that when Aderans saw what progress that Replicel and Histogen were making, that Aderans got a $100 million investment because now they know that they may not be the first to develop a solution for hair loss. The more competition we have to cure this baldness curse, the better. I agree with BackwardsBalding, I really believe in Histogen's HSC Complex's potential for hair regrowth. I love that it's non-surgical, and it's using chemicals like WNT and Nestin, that have long been proven to regrow hair. I'm less enthusiastic about Aderans, who have been stuck in Phase II forever, and haven't delivered any meaningful results. Plus, they're owned by Bosley, a company who has the ethics of your average neighborhood crack whore. I also really have faith in Replicel too, and I hope that they do their Phase II and III trials overseas as well without even wasting their time with FDA approval. The FDA is corrupt and it would be a total waste of Replicel's valuable time and money to try and negotiate with them. I live in the U.S. and wouldn't mind at all going overseas to receive Replicel's treatment, in fact I wouldn't even hesitate. Hell, I'd even travel to Mars if they somehow had some hair loss cure out there!!!!

[VictimOfDHT]

" I see histogen with a full blown product working well by early 2012(out side the U.S.) .2012 ? I would love that to be true but I DOUBT it. You're being overly optimistic if not unrealistic. We keep getting mixed messages about Histogen and I'm not sure these guys are any closer to a treatment. To me, it looks those companies are running in circles. It doesn't look like we have anything solid to be optimistic about. I HOPE I'M WRONG.

[Bronson]

Hmmm.... Not sure where the lack of faith in Histogen is coming from. They have already showed a singificant amount of hair growth and they are running all over the world getting funding and they are in phase 2 trials. All things considered I would say histogen is the leader here on the simple fact they have already shown positive results and are only now testing variables in those results with different treatment amounts. I see histogen with a full blown product working well by early 2012(out side the U.S.), Replicel by 2013 and my ERT methods of course are out...right now. LOl that was a joke...kind of

Yeah even the companies themselves have stated 2015 would be the earliest. I appreciate your optimism though.

[Bronson]

Here's hoping that this works with the worst success rate at 10-15%. For me it doesn't matter much because in this type of treatment effects would be compoundable. I do however hope the regrowth is much better.

All we can do is wait and hope. I expect first results in March or April.

How do you know the effects would be compoundable? Also, can someone explain to me how a 10-15% success rate is considered "very successful"? I'm not being sarcastic, I'm actually confused on that logic.

[DepressedByHairLoss]

I think the thing with Histogen was that they were having trouble finding recruits in Singapore for Phase II that hadn't been on Rogaine or Propecia within the past 6 months. So I think now they're recruiting people from another Eastern country. What's cool is that I think that in some Eastern countries, they can make a product available to people after Phase II, after safety regulations have been met. So hopefully this would be possible and would tide us over until something else comes along. I think that they said that 2015 would be the year that these products would be released in the U.S., but that it would be available worldwide before then. It is very hard to get stuff approved the corrupt FDA so perhaps that's why their timeline is longer for release in the U.S. I mean after all, that's why Histogen, Replicel, and Follica are conducting their clinical trials outside of the U.S. and Canada so that they won't be bogged down by FDA regulations.

[VictimOfDHT]

I think the thing with Histogen was that they were having trouble finding recruits in Singapore for Phase II that hadn't been on Rogaine or Propecia within the past 6 months. So I think now they're recruiting people from another Eastern country. What's cool is that I think that in some Eastern countries, they can make a product available to people after Phase II, after safety regulations have been met. So hopefully this would be possible and would tide us over until something else comes along. I think that they said that 2015 would be the year that these products would be released in the U.S., but that it would be available worldwide before then. It is very hard to get stuff approved the corrupt FDA so perhaps that's why their timeline is longer for release in the U.S. I mean after all, that's why Histogen, Replicel, and Follica are conducting their clinical trials outside of the U.S. and Canada so that they won't be bogged down by FDA regulations.

Actually, if these guys actually succeed in regrowing hair and have some kind of a treatment available by 2013 there would be no need for FDA approval. They don't even need to bother with doing anything in the US or canada. I'm sure if they have something available it won't matter for people who want to put an end to their misery (baldness) where the treatment will be available as they'd be willing to go to the moon -not just Asia or E. Europe- to get treated. To me and I'm sure most, what matters is when not where as the place is absolutely irrelevant.

[kanyon]

Yeah, it would be a great excuse for a holiday. But on returning home it might be problematic contacting the doctors overseas if you have issues after the treatment/operation.

[Pate]

How do you know the effects would be compoundable? Also, can someone explain to me how a 10-15% success rate is considered "very successful"? I'm not being sarcastic, I'm actually confused on that logic.

Nobody knows for sure it'll be compoundable but I believe the logic is that it may be only a certain percentage of follicles are in the inductive state at any one time, so any single treatment might only work on, say, 20% of follicles (or whatever).

So if you repeat the process 3 months later you'll find another 20% of follicles ready, and so on. It may be a "law of dimishing returns" situation where each successive treatment is less effective but the overall results are compounding.

But this all needs to be tested. First indication of whether these treatments are compoundable will be Histogen's 6-week follow up injections.

As for the 10-15% being "very successful" I think you need to keep in mind that unlike Aderans, Replicel is a publicly listed company and needs to grow its share price (so that any future capital raisings will be more effective). First rule of CEO statements is to "Under-promise and over-deliver" and I suspect that is happening here.

Consider two scenarios:

1. CEO says "An excellent result would be to grow 100% more hair." Actual result is 30% more hair. Market reaction: FAILURE! Share price plunges.

2. CEO says "An excellent result would be to grow 15% more hair." Actual result is 30% more hair. Market reaction: WOW!!! Share price goes up.

So I think the fact he's giving those numbers indicates they expect maybe 30% growth, but are covering themselves so even if they only get 15% they can say it performed to expectation and the share price won't collapse.

[Sogeking]

How do you know the effects would be compoundable? Also, can someone explain to me how a 10-15% success rate is considered "very successful"? I'm not being sarcastic, I'm actually confused on that logic.

Pate explained it very well, the only thing I would like to add is the study Dr. Cotsarelis published in January where they realized MPB sufferes still have inactive hair follicles on their scalp. And Replicel is basically going for awakening of those hair follicles (Can I write going for awakening??? :D). So basically I believe effects could be compundable with diminshing returns as Pate put it.

10-15% is also good given current situation. With Propecia most of the time regrowth is smallerr than shown in the study for it. And if you don't care about side effects you still have to ake it continuosly with only of slowing down the process.

Now this hair, when using Replicel, if it regrows should stay otherwise they won't market the product. 10-15% regrowth is still better than nothing and in worst case scenario if that is the only thing you get, it makes HT look more realistic and so on. However as I said the worst case scenario described above won't be profitable so I don't think they would sell the product if it comes to that.